LocoAko Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 So happy I went 89F with 0.10" of rain. Hope that trace adds up shortly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 0.46" in the last hr from the most isolated shower ever! I threw a 0 for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 wow at the rain...now I'm below the national consensus for the time being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 Outch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 That was killer...knocked me from the 400's to the 700's lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 It rained. WTF. Dropped me like 500 spots. well that sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Bad news: I'm in 1057th place. Good news: I'm beating 2 of my professors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 DAY 3: 89/76/9/.10 Going out on limb with some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Miami Day 3: 89F / 76F / 10kts / 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 29, 2011 Author Share Posted September 29, 2011 Day 3: 89F / 76F / 12kts / .10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 looks like there's going to be a tight consensus for tomorrow... I put 89/76/11/0.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 89 / 75 / 13 / 0.00 Day 3.. I did pretty good here on Day 2, Nailed High, Low, and Max Wind.. only had 0.10 for precip though... Tomorrow is gonna be another random popcorn day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I'm chilling in 829th place right now (131st out of Category 4s), LOL. I'm the top category 4 forecaster at NC State right now, though ... out of two contestants. For tomorrow... 91F / 76F / 9 knots / 0.12" Looks like I'm going hot again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 the winds were bumped up from 9kt to 10kt and my ranking just shifted from the 900s into the 700s. that was unexpected! still need to make up a LOT more ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 the winds were bumped up from 9kt to 10kt and my ranking just shifted from the 900s into the 700s. that was unexpected! still need to make up a LOT more ground! Same thing happened here, with late day 12MPH wind max... Nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 gotta know your climo... for Sept so far this year: 22/27 days had peak winds of 13 knots or greater 05/27 days had peak winds of 10-12 knots ZERO days of peak winds under 10 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I actually went a bit cooler tomorrow, given the high busts the last 2 days (I forecasted 89 and 91....verified 88 and 88). The NAM, GFS and EURO all have shra around 21z-0z, so I went Day 3: 87F / 75F / 10kts / .07" The problem is, if it doesn't rain then it's a double whammy for me. Oh well, let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 I actually went a bit cooler tomorrow, given the high busts the last 2 days (I forecasted 89 and 91....verified 88 and 88). The NAM, GFS and EURO all have shra around 21z-0z, so I went Day 3: 87F / 75F / 10kts / .07" The problem is, if it doesn't rain then it's a double whammy for me. Oh well, let's see what happens. it's tough almost any way you slice it... Monday I thought they'd be cooler with SHRA, got hit hard twice. today for example, the high of 89F was at 10:41 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 it's tough almost any way you slice it... Monday I thought they'd be cooler with SHRA, got hit hard twice. today for example, the high of 89F was at 10:41 a.m. Yeah Miami is proving to be harder than I thought it would. The winds have also over-performed both days, so I'm beginning to think I should've gone 12 kts tomorrow instead of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Went with 13 Knots, cause that is the average of the day after, days that had 0.20 < QPF or more for the month.. also those 6 days averaged 0.01in of rain with no readings going over 0.03... hopefully climo is helpful as Quincy was talking about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 90/77/9/0.00 Starting to think I didn't go high enough on winds again after the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 temp still holding at 83F with an onshore breeze! the lows have been weird too...that 74 threw everybody off and tonight could be another wild card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 temp still holding at 83F with an onshore breeze! the lows have been weird too...that 74 threw everybody off and tonight could be another wild card RUC had north winds starting at 9z. That's what *I think* dropped the temperature on Tuesday Morning. Day 3: 89/75/10/.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 NWS forecast jumped from 75 to 79 for the low. Although it's 79 now, so we should drop another 1 or 2 degrees as long as they don't cloud over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Low only got down to 78 despite calm winds and party cloudy skies...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Boy I can not forecast a low temperature to save my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Again the Low screws me over. Oh well. The 10z HRRR has CI around 17-18z, so let's see what that does for us. Right now we're starting off warmer than the past 2 days' 12z obs, so if we don't get some convective debris this afternoon many people will bust low on their forecast highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Man! Sad I missed out on the contest this year... One thing I've noticed, just going back and looking at the past three days, is that those low temperatures are going to depend on WHEN they see the rain, if any. Yesterday, it rained earlier in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to get back into the middle 80s before slowly dropping into the upper 70s. Also, the WIND DIRECTION plays a huge part in forecasting the overnight low... If there's a bit of northerly wind overnight, temperatures will drop relatively fast. However, if you continue to see an easterly (or even a westerly wind to some extent) it won't dip much below 76/77. Also, the rain is a crap shoot as you can have some areas of Miami pick up 2 inches, but the official recording station only picks up .04 You can't go wrong with a forecast of 90/77/12/.10 each day for Miami... that is until the front tries to work its way into South Florida which you also have to be careful about, but that's next week. Good luck to everyone forecasting for Miami! It's a tricky spot to forecast for, as many of you are finding out now, but it's also enjoyable! BTW, I grew up on the west coast of Florida so I know what you are going through forecasting those stupid overnight lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Again the Low screws me over. Oh well. The 10z HRRR has CI around 17-18z, so let's see what that does for us. Right now we're starting off warmer than the past 2 days' 12z obs, so if we don't get some convective debris this afternoon many people will bust low on their forecast highs. Heh! I need to make sure to look at the radar down there this afternoon to see how well the HRRR does... I haven't looked at it much for Florida seabreeze showers so not sure how well it does... Should be fun to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Hmmmm... busted on low, no north winds. Should of kept with my original 77. Anyway, this mornings sounding: With a forecasted CAPE of 4500 j/kg to the stratosphere and a LI of -7, As with almost any day in S Florida, there is going to be some storms today. I expect 2 storm modes today. 1. Small topped showers that move slowly with the easterly flow that will be present all day (already some just off the coast this morning) 2. Afternoon/evening thunderstoms that will attempt to break the *slight* mid-level cap/ Dp depression and will slowly drift westward. These ones I suspect will only be able to get the kick-start mechanism they need by the either sea-breezes/outflow boundaries colliding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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