phil882 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 After doing pretty well the past three years in the WxChallenge, I've really been off my game this semester at 330th place overall. I've got to step it up for Erie, PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nothing like a nice tricky precip forecast to get back into the swing of things after a week off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Pretty big differences between the NAM and GFS for QPF in Erie tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 59/44/18/0.47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I went 58/39/17/0.78" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 59/45/15/0.50" My QPF was essentially a shot in the dark and I hope that I hit something. The GFS was spouting 0.75" or so while some of the higher-resolution models went much lower, so I just split the difference and hoped for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Uh oh, it looks like I really undershot the low or something. I guess I should have noticed the onshore winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 60/44/16/0.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 58/43/18/0.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 went conservative: 59/44/17/0.40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 58/45/17/.44". I was tempted to go even lower with the rain given that the best PVA and QG forcing looked like it would be well to the east, but one breif heavy "squall" and all of a sudden you're racking up. So I played it safely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 60/41/22/.44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 58/41/18/.30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Doubt the temperature is going to get any higher than 50. That NE breeze is not going to change before the front comes in in about an hour. I wish I would of stayed with my original gut forecast of low 50's and 3/4" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 So glad that WAA kicked in like it was supposed to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Argh, I forgot to forecast today. Thankfully, I filled out a forecast yesterday for today, so while my forecast probably isn't the most accurate in the world, it won't hurt me too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's already down to 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I just realized I mistakenly put 19kt instead of 10kt tomorrow I was rushing to enter the information on my phone and made a mistake. hopefully the winds spike and maybe I won't be hurt so bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 woot! 35th at Erie so far. Let's see how long it takes until I forget a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 After Day 3 I'll be in 5th, but took a few risks for day 4 with 37/26/17/0.03. I feel more confident in my low than I do about my high. Hopefully not more than 5 points error tomorrow. "crosses fingers" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The temperature spiked up to 34 last hour from 32. I'm not feeling as confident with my low of 29 as I was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The 0z MOS data is also much warmer. The low might actually be at 6z tomorrow night rather than overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Nice that the temp is going up. Clouds moving in tonight ahead of the cold front. I went with 39/32/16/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Nice that the temp is going up. Clouds moving in tonight ahead of the cold front. I went with 39/32/16/0.00 Yeah I think a low of 32 is golden. The 0z NAM actually has a low of 29 at 6z tomorrow night, though the 0z GFS has the low only being at 34 at 6z tomorrow night. I wouldn't be surprised though if the high hit 40 or 41 instead of 39, though perhaps the clouds might be able to keep it at 39 degrees. I went 39/29/13/0. I'm hoping that Erie radiates like crazy tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah I think a low of 32 is golden. The 0z NAM actually has a low of 29 at 6z tomorrow night, though the 0z GFS has the low only being at 34 at 6z tomorrow night. I wouldn't be surprised though if the high hit 40 or 41 instead of 39, though perhaps the clouds might be able to keep it at 39 degrees. I went 39/29/13/0. I'm hoping that Erie radiates like crazy tomorrow night! I also went 29..38/29/10/.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 However, I'm toast since I had Climo Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I concur with most of you all. 39/29/13/0.03" I know the low will be at 6z Saturday, the wind will be weaker and off the land at that time, whereas the wind is expected to increase and turn to come off the lake as we head into morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 KERI 021420Z 23007KT 5SM -RA BKN016 OVC025 03/M01 A3029 RMK AO2 RAB1356UPB04E05 P0000 Erie Local TV Station Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Site is down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 spot on with the precip...consensus was 0.03 and 0.03 is the total so far. went 0.02 here... think it all comes down to temps, as we'll see how fast readings drop off this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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