LocoAko Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Went 31F/23F/9/0.35". Glad to see someone with a very similar forecast to mine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 low temperatures will likely smoke everyone today...been holding in the low 30s overnight my forecast for today was: 30/24/17/0.28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 PAJN 151953Z 07006KT 10SM FEW030 BKN043 OVC075 M01/M02 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP097 PRESENT WX VCSH S-SW T10061022 PNO $= Great, the rain gauge broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 PAJN 151953Z 07006KT 10SM FEW030 BKN043 OVC075 M01/M02 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP097 PRESENT WX VCSH S-SW T10061022 PNO $= Great, the rain gauge broke. What do they do in a situation like that? Should I change my forecast to 0.00" for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 What do they do in a situation like that? Should I change my forecast to 0.00" for tomorrow? Well, it no longer says pno in the metar report, so perhaps it was only down for an hour. But, there hasn't been any accumulation since then so either the snow has been very light for 3 hrs straight with no accumulation, or it's not working but no longer being reported as being broken. I would definitely put a precip forecast. If it is broken, wxchallenge will notice it and not count precip forecasts. If it's fine, then you'll be happy you made a forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 38/31/33/0.55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I really hope they get to the bottom of this precipitation error somehow... it is really messing me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Went 36/32/26/0.75 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I really hope they get to the bottom of this precipitation error somehow... it is really messing me up. It's fixed, and was only down while no precip was falling, so don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I think I went 34/27/19/0.33" tomorrow. So far I've been taking wild yet educated guesses and holding my own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 37/30/25/0.50 conservative approach, but still seems like I could gain more ground...have had a good mixture of luck and solid forecasting for this city. even with a couple of fluke numbers, still holding in the 100s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I hate this city.. Good thing I planned for it to be my drop city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The wind really screwed me yesterday. It was sitting at 11 knots, numped p to 14 kts, then this morning I see the max hit 29 kts. I guess I need to pay attention to the orientation of the wind flow, it seems like unless it comes up the passage they got nothing, but when it does they gust way beyond guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I think I went 34/27/19/0.33" tomorrow. So far I've been taking wild yet educated guesses and holding my own. Well, that's what a forecast is, right? That wind dropped me from the 400s down to 625th in the standings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 nice consensus going on the winds tomorrow... GFS MOS has 2-3 knots... USL has 39-45 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 nice consensus going on the winds tomorrow... GFS MOS has 2-3 knots... USL has 39-45 knots Yeah, that's really interesting. I know the USL is a fairly high res model, and probably does better in that terrain, so I went 29/12/36/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 31/14/25/0.00 I already blew the high unless winds pick up and mix it back to 31F, but it seems crazy things want to happen with this city around 6z every night. Winds I just basically said, ok not going to be lower than 15 knots, and not going to be higher than 35 knots, so took the middle ground lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yeah, that's really interesting. I know the USL is a fairly high res model, and probably does better in that terrain, so I went 29/12/36/0.00 Pardon my ignorance but what exactly is the USL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Pardon my ignorance but what exactly is the USL? http://www.microclimates.org/forecast/wxchallenge.html I had been doing the best I'd ever done in Juneau and I don't know what I was thinking but the past two days just slaughtered me in Juneau.... oof. I'm hoping today will redeem me a little but these winds are really tough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Did the climo report go DOWN from 27 to 26 knots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 http://www.microclim...xchallenge.html I had been doing the best I'd ever done in Juneau and I don't know what I was thinking but the past two days just slaughtered me in Juneau.... oof. I'm hoping today will redeem me a little but these winds are really tough... Well that would have been helpful to have for the past 3 cities. Is that something on the WxChallenge website that I completely overlooked? Anyway it looks like the high winds it was forecasting in its 22z run last night did not come to fruition, as the highest sustained wind at PAJN so far is only 11 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well that would have been helpful to have for the past 3 cities. Is that something on the WxChallenge website that I completely overlooked? Anyway it looks like the high winds it was forecasting in its 22z run last night did not come to fruition, as the highest sustained wind at PAJN so far is only 11 knots. It is really hit and miss. It would figure that the day I give it credibility it fails me. So over Alaska.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Did the climo report go DOWN from 27 to 26 knots? No. The highest hourly reported winds were 27 knots, but since that occurred before midnight on Nov 16, it doesn't go into the climate report. They use the climate report from midnight Nov 16 to midnight November 17 for Day 6. The highest winds during that period were 26 knots. It is dumb because when they use the climate report, it runs past 6z but the winds still count for the period. Finally, the winds for Day 6 should be 27 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 No. The highest hourly reported winds were 27 knots, but since that occurred before midnight on Nov 16, it doesn't go into the climate report. They use the climate report from midnight Nov 16 to midnight November 17 for Day 6. The highest winds during that period were 26 knots. It is dumb because when they use the climate report, it runs past 6z but the winds still count for the period. Finally, the winds for Day 6 should be 27 knots. Oh okay, so I guess wxchallenge will eventually readjust the winds to 27 knots? And what a silly rule for the climo report - I think it was this that made the winds so low on day 2. And lol at the winds being so low today. Does anyone think we're going to increase at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 So over Alaska.... Nonsense! I am doing much better in Juneau than at any of the other cities we've done so far! I say that we move to Anchorage next; then Fairbanks; then Barrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I'm mrwill from Miami. I guess that gives me home field advantage this first round. As irony would have it, your score at Miami is your worst score and will be dropped. You just never know with these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 All I have to say is what the hell on the winds today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 All I have to say is what the hell on the winds today... I'm glad I *only* went with 22 kts. Though I originally had 18 and bumped it up last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Ive been doing so well until today, and its because of the winds (28 kts). I also probably went too low with the low temperature for tonight (12). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I went 12 kts because I thought the USL was BS because Juneau NEVER gets that high with west winds. I followed the EURO which with the enhanced resolution really picked up on the wind jet down the sound and giving Juneau a west wind rather than a strong downsloping NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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