Chrisrotary12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Something is a little fishy about the verification for day 1.......0 kts was the highest wind speed recorded. ya doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Something is a little fishy about the verification for day 1.......0 kts was the highest wind speed recorded. ya doubt that. I see 15 knots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 I see 15 knots... It has been fixed now. Was 0 when I woke up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Is there BUFKIT data available for PAJN anywhere? I don't see it on Penn State's map of sites. Yes, plug in ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/GFS/gfs3_pajn.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/nam_pajn.buf This lack of rain is getting annoying...Models sure are going big tomorrow. Euro has a solid inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Now I am back to a -0.343 cumulative verification score. It's been awhile since I was below zero! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Yes, plug in ftp://ftp.meteo.psu....S/gfs3_pajn.buf ftp://ftp.meteo.psu....it/nam_pajn.buf This lack of rain is getting annoying...Models sure are going big tomorrow. Euro has a solid inch. Thanks. I swear I didn't see them there but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Quite the difference between the NAM calling for a high of 32, and the NWS going 42. I wonder why that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Quite the difference between the NAM calling for a high of 32, and the NWS going 42. I wonder why that is... NAM MOS has a high of 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Does anyone know if rain was falling in and around Juneau, if it would even be visible on the local radar? That radar is south and west of the city, with several mountains in between possibly blocking the beam. Keep in mind that the airport is actually 30 miles north of Juneau itself and is in an area of downsloping winds for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Back down to 28.. 2 hours before the next day starts. Clear and calm = P.S. Its 32 downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 NAM MOS has a high of 38 BUFKIT was only 32 but it was a definite outlier so I canned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Looks like 30 degrees is going to be the days starting point.. I had 32 and changed to 31 at 00:00:21 but it was late. -1 pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Juneau is going to end up being a throw-away for me most likely. I can spit back MOS guidance but I have no understanding of their local climo/geography, so it'll be very hard for me to get an edge over anyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Looks like 30 degrees is going to be the days starting point.. I had 32 and changed to 31 at 00:00:21 but it was late. -1 pt. I had a low of 30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Well, to answer my own question from earlier: no, you cannot see precip when it is falling at Juneau on the radar. Too much beam blockage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 PAJN's precip total today seems to be disappointing thus far and is killing me in the contest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 PAJN's precip total today seems to be disappointing thus far and is killing me in the contest... .05 in the last hour with total precip. up to .29" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Hmmm, precip still seems to be wrong for Day 3. Surface obs show 0.55" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Hmmm, precip still seems to be wrong for Day 3. Surface obs show 0.55" total. That would've been nice for my rainfall verification.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 That would've been nice for my rainfall verification.... Amen. I forecasted 0.59", so the QPF they got was a disaster for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Amen. I forecasted 0.59", so the QPF they got was a disaster for me. It was fixed to 0.55", so your forecast was quite good. I'm happy as well, as I went with an even 0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Amen. I forecasted 0.59", so the QPF they got was a disaster for me. When I checked this morning it said 0.55" for yesterday. Which is not bad since I forecasted 0.69" (when in doubt, 69) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 It was fixed to 0.55", so your forecast was quite good. I'm happy as well, as I went with an even 0.50". Very nice. It puts me back to -0.280 for my cumulative score. I like being in the negatives! EDIT: Well, actually, I finished up slightly positive. Oh well. When I checked this morning it said 0.55" for yesterday. Which is not bad since I forecasted 0.69" (when in doubt, 69) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Money! I had 0.55" Well yesterdays forecast screwed me over anyways. What happen to the shot of cold air behind the cold front? Oh well, I can still recover, sitting in 140th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Yep, I got lucky that day with that 0.55", though the winds have messed things up a bit. Money! I had 0.55" Well yesterdays forecast screwed me over anyways. What happen to the shot of cold air behind the cold front? Oh well, I can still recover, sitting in 140th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 interesting. I completely busted on the low for day 4, but since I was spot on for precip and wind, I managed to move to first in my school. bring on week two! who would have thought I'd be doing this well for a city like Juneau maybe people are just getting lazy by now. honestly, I did my last few forecasts only from data I could check out on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Looks like it's going to get downright cold in Juneau towards the end of the week. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 They've been getting hit by on and off snow squalls all day. Some beautiful loops of sunshine followed by whiteout on the webcams (Pedersen Hill): http://avcams.faa.gov/viewsite.php?bookmark=6Y8BZ1U2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 PAJN 141953Z 07008KT 1SM R26/2800V5000FT -SN BR SCT007 OVC014 M01/M01 A2962 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 SLP029 VIS N 1 SNINCR 2/9 P0010 T10061006= 2" of snow in the last hour, 9" on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I think I went 32/23/11/0.29" for tomorrow. The only thing really giving me trouble lately is the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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