wxmeddler Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 what a spread for lows tonight...unless the temperature is right in the middle, we're probably going to see a lot of wide swings...oh my...temperature just went UP 3 degrees last hour. now at 49F, dew point 31. Downsloping doesn't need sunlight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 low looks like it's sticking at 36F for now...let's see how warm it goes this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 It's already up to 55F as of 10:53am MDT, where it was only 43F at this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 They're probably going to hit 63 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 They're probably going to hit 63 today. They made it to 64, impressive. I went 63/40/12/0.00 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Eh, Haven't posted in this thread in awhile... At one point I was 3rd in Cat. 4. I dropped a bit with today.. Friday: 62/38/9/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Crap, I forgot to make my forecast for today. Fortunately, I made one for today yesterday, though it probably won't be that accurate. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I forgot as well (and after I clawed my way to 404th, none the less) I *think* I chose guidance ahead of time, but I already used that once, so it's a 5-point penalty on top of a mediocre forecast. Wonderful. (What happens if I didn't choose guidance, and nothing at all got submitted?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I forgot as well (and after I clawed my way to 404th, none the less) I *think* I chose guidance ahead of time, but I already used that once, so it's a 5-point penalty on top of a mediocre forecast. Wonderful. (What happens if I didn't choose guidance, and nothing at all got submitted?) Climatology for that day designated as a "C" next to the forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Climatology for that day designated as a "C" next to the forecast.. Ugh. Climo is like 58/36/01/0.00" it looks like. I really hope I clicked guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It pit 0/0/0/0.00" in for me. Which means I fell almost 1100 spots. That's not even climo! wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Ended up 13th nationally at Riverton. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Ended up 13th nationally at Riverton. Not bad. Nice, you beat me I ended up 44th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Nice, you beat me I ended up 44th. Fell on the second to last day... 73rd overall. 5th in Cat 4. I like my consistency in the -2 SD range which according to the empirical rule puts me in the top 3-6%. So I'm happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Dayton should be interesting in the next few days. Fun really begins with Tomorrow's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Gotta start forecasting again, I basically stopped for all Riverton forecasts and just accepted that I'd drop that one, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I went 69/40/16/0.01" GFS MOS has been consistent with 67, NAM MOS with 66, so I was a but surprised to see the NWS forecast of 71, especially with the winds increasing in the afternoon. Still, I bit, and shot down the middle, hence the 69 for the high. Oh and I went 0.01" to account for the CDFNT shra that's mainly after 6z. That was a bit risky, but it will pay off if the shra move in right before 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 70/40/20/0.00 Strong signal of warming, especially with wind direction and 850 progs. Could go higher, but clouds may limit. Decided to play it in the middle. Winds will be gusty too, so it will be interesting to see how high they go. (12z USL had 22kt) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 70/42/15/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Finally some interesting (and somewhat predictable) weather tomorrow at KDAY. Main problem is heavy rain/thunderstorms approaching around 6z. The GFS holds the heaviest off until 6z-12z, although the SPC WRF says the storms roll in around 3z. Also, The NAM is spiking to 21C for no reason, so I discounted that (considering they should be clouded over most of the day), took a guess on the rainfall and ended up with 63/47/18/0.69" I went a bit high on the rainfall and I hope it pays off with a thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Wow, BLEW the high temp today....I had 61 and it's 68 so far with sunny skies Better get cold tonight and rain later to save my QPF/low temp forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 71 was the 6-hour max. The NAM nailed this one, going 21C for today while the GFS and EURO were stuck down in the 16-17C range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Finally some interesting (and somewhat predictable) weather tomorrow at KDAY. Main problem is heavy rain/thunderstorms approaching around 6z. The GFS holds the heaviest off until 6z-12z, although the SPC WRF says the storms roll in around 3z. Also, The NAM is spiking to 21C for no reason, so I discounted that (considering they should be clouded over most of the day), took a guess on the rainfall and ended up with 63/47/18/0.69" I went a bit high on the rainfall and I hope it pays off with a thunderstorm. Whoops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow, looks like the heaviest rain missed the airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Wow, looks like the heaviest rain missed the airport You're tellin' me... what a disaster. And not that much rain so far today, either. Gah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You're tellin' me... what a disaster. And not that much rain so far today, either. Gah. Combined with the high of 71 that was not a good day to forecast at KDAY. But I guess everyone has their bad KDAY days and their good KDAY days. Oh yeah I went 51/35/13/0.18" for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 50/37/14/0.16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 had gone with 52/37/16/0.10 for today was hoping to bank on those mild temperatures last night, but the front came through as advertised. most of the rainfall is done today...0.12" so far, although there may be a few hundredths of an inch to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I nailed the temperature today, but my precip forecast was pretty awful at 0.49"... Still good enough for 305th overall as of now, though. I guess a lot of other people blew their forecasts, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Dayton's proving to be rather boring The thread fell off the first page for chrissake! Anyway I went 59/34/9/0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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