superjames1992 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 I am 661st after two days. Riverton is going much better thus far for me. For tomorrow... 64F / 36F / 18 knots / 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Despite the high getting out of control, I managed to move to around #200 today. Tomorrow is the trickiest day so far. 700 mb temps are warmer than yesterday, but it is much drier with lighter winds. Close to a 30 degree difference between the high and low will be possible. I am going slightly above guidance tomorrow, although I am tempted to bump the high up even more. 65/37/19/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 I'm betting we get in on some more mountain wave action very similar to today thanks to the 500mb wind maximum being parked just to the NE of Riverton. The anticyclonic shear side of the jet should also promote subsidence and favorable conditions for lee waves that bring both high winds and adiabatic compression which won't likely be properly accounted for on guidance. My #'s 65F / 39F / 20kts / 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 67F/41F/24kts/0.00 I wish my high forecasting skills would transfer over to the low, but no! If you want a better look at air parcel trajectories, which can help in forecasting the temperatures, and I am talking to everyone here. You should check out the HYSPLIT model on NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory page! Some cool stuff! http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/hysplitout/10908_trj001.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 67F/41F/24kts/0.00 I wish my high forecasting skills would transfer over to the low, but no! If you want a better look at air parcel trajectories, which can help in forecasting the temperatures, and I am talking to everyone here. You should check out the HYSPLIT model on NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory page! Some cool stuff! http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/hysplitout/10908_trj001.gif care to enlighten us on the technique? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 care to enlighten us on the technique? I like to keep my techniques private! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I like to keep my techniques private! Right-o...I think I have figured something out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Ughh, forgot to update it from earlier, especially given today's high. Oh well. Today was a fail. 62F 38F 13 knots 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I was the highest high temp at Ohio state (61) and it still blew past me. Oh well, managed to climb up from rank 892 to 141 LOL. We'll see how long that lasts BUFKIT is mixing down some high gusts the next two days although MOS guidance is lower. Should be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 went 63/38/18/0.00 playing it conservatively...the few times I've gone out on a limb, I've gotten burned. winds could go way higher and obviously the high could spike too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 went 63/38/18/0.00 playing it conservatively...the few times I've gone out on a limb, I've gotten burned. winds could go way higher and obviously the high could spike too... We have identical forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Right-o...I think I have figured something out though. I know everything there needs to be about that model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 64/37/17/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 65/40/24/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I suck at forecasting the winds. Whatever number I come up with I am adding like 7 to it. Highs and lows haven't been bad. Hit the low this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 64/39/15/0.00 Still working on a technique for winds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I went 64/40/20/0.00 today. Ditto on the winds, I'm kinda just making up numbers for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Yeah, winds are kind of a shot in the dark for me. I just look at some MOS values and pick a number, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Anyways, I have 65F / 38F / 17 knots / 0.00" for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Anyways, I have 65F / 38F / 17 knots / 0.00" for tomorrow. I would wait until after 0z to post my forecast for the next day if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Yeah, again guys, hold off on posting until after 00z, just out of protocol and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 14, 2011 Author Share Posted October 14, 2011 Thoughts for tomorrow: The low is tricky as always, but I think tonight we should see calmer winds as a ridge moves over the region. The jet is finally moving off further to the northeast and there is a split in the upper level flow right over WY. With the weaker upper level flow, expecting to see a lot less mixing tonight with colder temperatures at the surface as the boundary layer could decouple from the upper levels. Tomorrow is also tricky because the winds will likely start to pick up in the late afternoon and evening as a weak upper level impulse once again causes the jet to dive over the northern portions of WY. Its hard to time when that will occur, but if its earlier in the period than forecasted, it could help enhance adiabatic compression and raise the temperature further. My #'s 66F / 36F / 17kts / 0.00in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 65/37/14/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 I would wait until after 0z to post my forecast for the next day if I were you. Yeah, again guys, hold off on posting until after 00z, just out of protocol and all Oops, sorry about that, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 65/37/7/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 66F 39F 10 kts 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 66/39/18/0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 66/39/16/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Two days in a row I have hit the low. Now to learn to forecast those winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 temps aren't budging much today, still in the 40s and it's almost noon local time. I was tempted to go low, but I thought the skies would clear out for sure. UGH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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