earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The shortwave over Pennsylvania and the Northeast is the real kicker to the trough here--it's completely de-amplifying the pattern ahead of the shortwave in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 trough is still positive at 90, this could get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 lol at this 18z run...hr 87 has broad area of low pressure over ohio valley 1008, another popping off the delmarva 850s and frz line just north west of cities Yup. This run is certainly interesting in what its doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The base of the shortwave trough is entering the Gulf of Mexico through Mississippi and Alabama at 96 hours, and here comes the Polar Vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Trough finally goes neutral....over florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 99 hours the entire trough is phasing in with the Polar Vortex. The initial feature is very weak over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 hr 99 is trying to pop a low on the front...the front is just west of the cities...well atleast the 850s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Apparently the DGEX thinks we're going to see a 955mb low develop low near Rhode Island. Seriously though, I am surprised with what I see on the DGEX. That's a completely offshore solution, actually, and the furthest thing from inland with the secondary. It is trying to redevelop the secondary along the frontal boundary--which offers hope for the suburban areas trying to see frozen precipitation. http://www.meteo.psu...ST_18z/f120.gif The 18z DGEX is actually kind of awesome! The initial surface low is well inland, but it amplifies, tilts, and pinches off such an incredible cutoff that a new surface low forming further down along the old cold front and a beautiful mid-level, moisture laden circulation, combine to produce a wind whipped, powdery snow on the backside! It seems to always produce these wrapped up coastal bombs to tease us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The cold front is pushing off the coast--and the baroclinic zone is right there as well..if the Polar Vortex phases into this system it's going to tug it right up along there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 sub 996 low just off hateras 850s past cities frz line just north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 By the way--the first wave starts as snow in the NYC area it looks like at 90 hours, maybe sleet. But it is brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm not saying I buy either solution but have the GFS and EURO ever been further apart at >90 hours? 18z GFS at 90h has 2 LPs...southern one could be interesting in the next frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Wow.. big change!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The big phase is just not happening this run, yet, and I can't stress enough how important that first shortwave over Pennsylvania was in deamplifying the trough axis. That is the main reason why this is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 hr 108 sub 988 about 150 miles east of norfol, lgt precip over i95 regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 At 111 the surface low is headed towards the 40/70 Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 What the heck is the GFS doing? Almost reminds me of the snowicane last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 hr 111 sub 984 bout 150 miles south of the bm, odd is the precip doesnt correlate to that strong of a low...no real precip in the cold sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 984mb over the 40/70 Benchmark at 114 hours...I can't believe what I am seeing. This run actually whiffs the entire thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 hr 108 sub 988 about 150 miles east of norfol, lgt precip over i95 regions That doesn't seem right. Shouldn't there be more precip with that low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Snowing in Southern New England at 117 hrs 980mb low heading towards the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 hr 117 sub 980 75 miles east of cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It completely broke apart the storm the EURO shows cutting into the lakes into 3 distinct LPs between hours 80 and 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Can you please post some maps? I am still only at 96 hours. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Wow GFS is really disorganized with the energy, troughs stays postiive for a while Hmmm, im out to hr 81 Looking like some of the previous cycle ensemble runs that eventually nailed us! Remember the trof is eventually going to blow a hole in the atmosphere as it cutoffs so the longer it takes initially the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I have never seen the GFS and the ECMWF this far apart within 100 hours. Euro showing a cutter while GFS shows out to sea? Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Great now our model range is anywhere from Detroit to the Gulf of Maine GFS is probably off its rocker, but if the energy over PA/NY is real, it could screw everything up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Can you please post some maps? I am still only at 96 hours. thanks http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That doesn't seem right. Shouldn't there be more precip with that low? yea it doesnt make sense with how low the pressure is, there really isnt much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I have never seen the GFS and the ECMWF this far apart within 100 hours. You must be new here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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