aslkahuna Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 There is the possibility that minor to major Geomagnetic storm conditions due to recent Flare/CME activity will occur from Sunday night into Tuesday morning. Major storm levels include K values of 6 but substorming of upt to 7 would be possible. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 There is the possibility that minor to major Geomagnetic storm conditions due to recent Flare/CME activity will occur from Sunday night into Tuesday morning. Major storm levels include K values of 6 but substorming of upt to 7 would be possible. Steve Steve would be awesome if it gets above 7 then I could try to work the DX via Au. And also try to see if i could see some northern lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 I've always wanted to see the northern lights. Unfortunately I know absolutely nothing about geomagnetic storms. Any chance I would see anything this far south (if we didn't have a massive cut-off low on top of us, that is)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I've always wanted to see the northern lights. Unfortunately I know absolutely nothing about geomagnetic storms. Any chance I would see anything this far south (if we didn't have a massive cut-off low on top of us, that is)? There has been sightings i remember someone saying in Chicago and Detroit but not as far south as your location or here in SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 Arrival time of the CME is forecast to be around 1400Z plus or minus 7 hours which would be from midnight to 2 pm MST or 3 am to 5 PM EDT. Auroras have been seen in PA and even much further south (like Hawai'i) but it takes a heftier storm than what this one is expected to be. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 The science they are developing to forecast these things is really improving. Check out this animation for the upcoming CME, incredible stuff: http://iswa.gsfc.nas...nim.tim-den.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Kp = 8 right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Kp = 8 right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 is this going to last into tonight for the East Coast to get viewing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Ive always wondered what it would take to get aurora down here. what kind of levels are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 What were values like during that storm in 2003 I think it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Can we see it early tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 There has been sightings i remember someone saying in Chicago and Detroit but not as far south as your location or here in SE PA. They were visible on Oct 30, 2003 in Lebanon County. The sky was a brilliant shade of pinkish red. What were values like during that storm in 2003 I think it was? Yup that's the one. I don't follow these things but I remember reading an article that NOAA rated it a G-5. I have no idea what the scale is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 It will be interesting see what Europe reports over the next couple of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 K Index map I found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Also a scale from NOAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Look at this K Index chart I found from 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 The October 29-30 2003 Gemag storm peaked at 3 hour ap/Kp values of 400/9+ which is as high as both scales go. In overall intensity it was the 5th most intense Gemag storm on record (with 1859 being number 1) the Aurora was strongly visible here in Arizona and down into the Tropics around Cuba and Puerto Rico with Aurora Australis visible into southern Africa and southern South America and very strongly in Australia and NZ For comparison, the March 1989 Gemag which is rated the third most intense storm had a TWENTY FOUR hour A index of 388/K9-the aurora was visible in AZ two nights in a row and even as far south as HI. As far as tonight, a K=8 would be a good show for most everyone in the lower 48, however, latest readings from the Bz and Bt indicate that both have weakened so activity levels may decline before dark in the US (Europe, however, is getting a show right now). I will check the Gemag data again around 23-00Z. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 The October 29-30 2003 Gemag storm peaked at 3 hour ap/Kp values of 400/9+ which is as high as both scales go. In overall intensity it was the 5th most intense Gemag storm on record (with 1859 being number 1) the Aurora was strongly visible here in Arizona and down into the Tropics around Cuba and Puerto Rico with Aurora Australis visible into southern Africa and southern South America and very strongly in Australia and NZ For comparison, the March 1989 Gemag which is rated the third most intense storm had a TWENTY FOUR hour A index of 388/K9-the aurora was visible in AZ two nights in a row and even as far south as HI. As far as tonight, a K=8 would be a good show for most everyone in the lower 48, however, latest readings from the Bz and Bt indicate that both have weakened so activity levels may decline before dark in the US (Europe, however, is getting a show right now). I will check the Gemag data again around 23-00Z. Steve Yeah. Looking at the 15 min updates on solarham. It seems as if the projected K index has dropped from 8.3 to 7.7 over the past 30 min. We could easily see a raise at anytime as levels tend to be cyclical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 The magnetometer trace from Gakona AK showed a maximum N-S horizontal deflection of -700 nT but that the deflections on all three axes are dampening out. This could mean the end of the initial phase and entry into the main phase of the storm where we might see strong substorming or it could mean a total wind down. This was a fast moving CME and not a direct hit at that so the latter might be the case. A strong Aurora Australis dispaly was seen in New Zealand Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 The magnetometer trace from Gakona AK showed a maximum N-S horizontal deflection of -700 nT but that the deflections on all three axes are dampening out. This could mean the end of the initial phase and entry into the main phase of the storm where we might see strong substorming or it could mean a total wind down. This was a fast moving CME and not a direct hit at that so the latter might be the case. A strong Aurora Australis dispaly was seen in New Zealand Steve Is the timeframe between phases a matter of minutes, hours or days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 ^Wow. I was looking last night and there were barely 0.1-0.3 values (rough estimate). It's a shame that it seems to be relegated to N Europe right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 As expected the actvity has declined. The latest 3 hour ap/Kp index values were 94/6+ at 2300Z. With the sunset now arriving in the Eastern US, observers in northern New England might be able to see visual aurora skies permitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 As expected the actvity has declined. The latest 3 hour ap/Kp index values were 94/6+ at 2300Z. With the sunset now arriving in the Eastern US, observers in northern New England might be able to see visual aurora skies permitting. Could they ramp back up over the next couple hours? It seems its been amplifying and waning all day long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 If we get a substorm, yes but those are hard to predicit since like tornadoes they are a smaller structure within the larger storm pattern. Although they can happen at anytime, they are most often found in the midnight to dawn sector. However, FWIW SWPC is calling for only minor storming at best tonight. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 dang it...just got dark here...would love to see it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 dang it...just got dark here...would love to see it!!! Same here! Maybe it will ramp back up again near midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Same here! Maybe it will ramp back up again near midnight. too bad it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 27, 2011 Author Share Posted September 27, 2011 The Bz (the N-S component of the Interplanetary field) has turned north which will lead to a further decline in activity. However, the Solar wind speed remains high at over 600 km/sec so we can't rule out a substorm or reversal of the polarity just yet. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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