forkyfork Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 12Z Euro is still looking toasty looks slightly warmer than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 looks slightly warmer than the gfs yep, it looks a few degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 yep, it looks a few degrees warmer. it shows us being well above normal through next tuesday at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 it shows us being well above normal through next tuesday at least yea.. and finally precip free for an extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 12z euro is the warmest run yet. Has an extended period of well above average temps. From Saturday right through its entire run (Oct. 14th). And past that, looks like the ridge is still building and heat would last even longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 12z euro is the warmest run yet. Has an extended period of well above average temps. From Saturday right through its entire run (Oct. 14th). And past that, looks like the ridge is still building and heat would last even longer. it has a tropical system impacting us on day 10, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 the Arctic Oscillation is positive after being negative most of August...It is forecast to drop towards negative in October...If we see a continuation of a +AO it might be a mild fall afterall... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 it has a tropical system impacting us on day 10, lol A lot of models are starting to show something brewing either in the Bahamas region or in the NW Caribbean and we finally will have a huge east coast ridge which means any storms that do form in those areas will not recurve out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 impressive for MOS to show a high 13f above normal at day 6 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2011 Author Share Posted October 3, 2011 Getting a thunderstorm here in Long Beach now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 impressive for MOS to show a high 13f above normal at day 6 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KEWR How much is climo weighted with MOS forecasts? I assume it adjusts based on the time frame but I don't know how quickly it is factored in more with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 How much is climo weighted with MOS forecasts? I assume it adjusts based on the time frame but I don't know how quickly it is factored in more with time. Good question. Actually it Wouldn't shock me if the models are overdoing the warmth at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Down to 52.....temp really dropped quick the last couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 53 right now. Love this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 it gone get warm...love me some warm October especially after a dreadful September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 This board would be so depressed right now if the GFS looked like this out to day 16 in December or January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 This board would be so depressed right now if the GFS looked like this out to day 16 in December or January. Fall 07 repeat........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 0z euro is very warm from Saturday and right through its entire run, October 14th. GFS is even warmer. Has the well above average temps, lasting from Saturday and right through its entire run. This ridge is for real. Heat lovers are going to get at least a 1-2 week period of very warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 0z euro is very warm from Saturday and right through its entire run, October 14th. GFS is even warmer. Has the well above average temps, lasting from Saturday and right through its entire run. This ridge is for real. Heat lovers are going to get at least a 1-2 week period of very warm weather. I like snowstorms, but I can't stand the cold. This morning I was out in 3 layers, with a hood and a hat. These temps in the 45-55 range are killing me. It's too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I like snowstorms, but I can't stand the cold. This morning I was out in 3 layers, with a hood and a hat. These temps in the 45-55 range are killing me. It's too cold I'm with you - i love the snow and lately been loving and appreciating the summer/heat more and more. I am all for snow and cold come Thanksgiving through St Patty's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 0z euro is very warm from Saturday and right through its entire run, October 14th. GFS is even warmer. Has the well above average temps, lasting from Saturday and right through its entire run. This ridge is for real. Heat lovers are going to get at least a 1-2 week period of very warm weather. I would'nt rely on the models beyond a few days and even if it were warm remember our average high is usually in the mid to upper 60's pretty soon, warm would only mean 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 last October was cool and wet at first...It became mild from the 7th-11th...It was cool not cold after with a warm spell from the 25th-28th...Mid 70's four staright days...Enjoy the warmth for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 NYC starting off w/ a pretty neg temp departure for oct, but the next 7-10 days should erase most of that. However, suburbs will see several nights in the 40s wit clear skies, coupled with mild days, should help foliage brighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I hope so, unless it's too late for that. Certainly the sunny days and cool nights along with dry weather should help. I have a feeling like September we'll end up in the +2 to +3 territory depending on what happens the last 2 weeks of the month. NYC starting off w/ a pretty neg temp departure for oct, but the next 7-10 days should erase most of that. However, suburbs will see several nights in the 40s wit clear skies, coupled with mild days, should help foliage brighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Tropical system threat on the 18z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Should get a bit of a NAO spike as well. The NAO has been positive for a while now, first time in a long time it hasnt stayed in the negatives consistently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Should get a bit of a NAO spike as well. The NAO has been positive for a while now, first time in a long time it hasnt stayed in the negatives consistently Which is good. The Sept-Oct period is the 2 month time frame where we really want the NAO to be positive. Build up the cryosphere so that pressures are higher up north in the winter time, promoting block development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I hope so, unless it's too late for that. Certainly the sunny days and cool nights along with dry weather should help. I have a feeling like September we'll end up in the +2 to +3 territory depending on what happens the last 2 weeks of the month. Too late probably for NNE, but for our area, trees are still predominately green. I've seen crappy foliage seasons in VT in mid October turn into pretty decent ones in CNJ by the time early November rolls around. Our peak foliage is still at least 3 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Too late probably for NNE, but for our area, trees are still predominately green. I've seen crappy foliage seasons in VT in mid October turn into pretty decent ones in CNJ by the time early November rolls around. Our peak foliage is still at least 3 weeks away. We're having one of the worst foliage seasons in memory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 We're having one of the worst foliage seasons in memory here. I'm headed to VT on Saturday, I guess I should expect crap based upon the reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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