ag3 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 NYC, JFK, EWR and LGA all went into the upper 40's last night. 1st time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 The ridge could also open up the door for the tropics again with that late August/early September like ridge for the entire east coast and western Atlantic. The models have been showing some sort of development from the Caribbean and off the southeast coast. DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 lows around the area: EWR: 48 NYC: 48 JFK: 48 LGA: 49 TEB: 46 ISP: 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 0z euro has very warm weather for this weekend and lasting through middle of next week. If correct, temps will soar into the mid 80's and even 90+, for some locations. Very impressive ridge for mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 0z euro has very warm weather for this weekend and lasting through middle of next week. If correct, temps will soar into the mid 80's and even 90+, for some locations. Very impressive ridge for mid October. yea. the 6z gfs is still warm too. I'm not sure if 90 is attainable.. that may be reaching a bit with the projected 850 temps.. even for Newark.... but being well into the 80's... a definite possibility. BTW, anyone know when or if the last time we've hit 90 in October? has it happened in NYC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 NYC, JFK, EWR and LGA all went into the upper 40's last night. 1st time this season. what's unusual about this is the NYC metro area basically had some of the coldest temps in the northeast last night.. including parts of northern new england, thanks to the upper low parked near us. BTW, that 50 and below thresh-hold for the city equating to 850 temps of about 0 - 1C works pretty well. When we were close that time a few weeks ago, that was approximately what I was looking for to dip into the upper 40's. Our 850's had bottomed out to about 3 or 4 C that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 overnight low in Jacksonville Florida last night: 47... Bangor, Maine: 53.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 yea. the 6z gfs is still warm too. I'm not sure if 90 is attainable.. that may be reaching a bit with the projected 850 temps.. even for Newark.... but being well into the 80's... a definite possibility. BTW, anyone know when or if the last time we've hit 90 in October? has it happened in NYC metro? 1941 was the last time...It was 88 in 1979, 1959 and 1949... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 1941 was the last time...It was 88 in 1979, 1959 and 1949... Thanks.. wow, so it's been a long time since it's happened or been close. It'll be interesting to see what happens next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 There is no way we are hitting 90 next week. It's ridiculous just discussing it. 850's are between 12 and 14 C the whole warm stretch on the GFS. Even with westerly winds that doesn't support 90, especially not now where we've lost several hours of heating on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 There is no way we are hitting 90 next week. It's ridiculous just discussing it. 850's are between 12 and 14 C the whole warm stretch on the GFS. Even with westerly winds that doesn't support 90, especially not now where we've lost several hours of heating on top of it. I agree. I didn't want to express it so bluntly and dash the hopes of those wanting to hang on to summer... like me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 There is no way we are hitting 90 next week. It's ridiculous just discussing it. 850's are between 12 and 14 C the whole warm stretch on the GFS. Even with westerly winds that doesn't support 90, especially not now where we've lost several hours of heating on top of it. Agree. But we do have a shot of 80 degrees for several days. Euro has 75-80 degrees from Sunday through Wednesday. Newark and other warm areas can pass 85 degrees, if that occurs. Also, Euro has 16-18 degree 850 temps for day 6 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Thanks.. wow, so it's been a long time since it's happened or been close. It'll be interesting to see what happens next week. Came close just 4 years ago in 2007. October 8 (same timeframe) EWR: 89 TTN: 90 TEB: 90 JFK: 90 NYC: 87 LGA: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Agree. But we do have a shot of 80 degrees for several days. Euro has 75-80 degrees from Sunday through Wednesday. Newark and other warm areas can pass 85 degrees, if that occurs. Also, Euro has 16-18 degree 850 temps for day 6 and beyond. if we can get it up to 18, good mixing, full sun, west wind with some downsloping, then Newark might be able to do it. This is still a ways out.. perhaps temps will adjust in the coming days. we need the airmass to build up some warmth before advecting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 it's been so wet lately I doubt we see upper 80's next week...I won't be surprised to see near record minimums though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 it's been so wet lately I doubt we see upper 80's next week...I won't be surprised to see near record minimums though... Yeah, i am tending to agree. Even in early September and late August we touched 88/89 several times but couldnt crack 90. I think we were cloudier then, than what we should be this weekend and next week. We did it in 2007, so we'll see. Wasnt as wet then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Came close just 4 years ago in 2007. October 8 (same timeframe) EWR: 89 TTN: 90 TEB: 90 JFK: 90 NYC: 87 LGA: 89 now that you mention it, I just realized I put up my weather station a few months before that October. I hit 89.2 on October 8th.That was a nice 5 day warm stretch of 80+ weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Yeah, i am tending to agree. Even in early September and late August we touched 88/89 several times but couldnt crack 90. I think we were cloudier then, than what we should be this weekend and next week. We did it in 2007, so we'll see. Wasnt as wet then. my min was in the md 60's during that warm stretch here in the immediate NYC burbs in Oct, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 October warm spells... Year..consecutive 80+ Max. 1891..10/3-10/5......3...86 1898..10/3-10/5......3...81 1922..9/30-10/3......4...88 1941..10/4-10/6......3...94 1946..10/4-10/7......4...87 1949..10/9-10/12....4...88 1950..10/1-10/3......3...86 1954..10/1-10/4......4...86 1954..10/11-10/14..4...87 1959..10/4-10/6......3...88 1968..10/1-10/3......3...85 2007..10/4-10/8......5...87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Yeah, i am tending to agree. Even in early September and late August we touched 88/89 several times but couldnt crack 90. I think we were cloudier then, than what we should be this weekend and next week. We did it in 2007, so we'll see. Wasnt as wet then. Why anyone would wanna crack 90 is mid October is beyond me, even 80s in October sounds pretty disgusting. Seeing 90 in September is fine because it's still more or less a summer month but seeing that in October when the foliage season is in full effect and we are deeply rooted into fall is awful. Models look to maintain that strong ridge for a while, could be up to a two week stretch of well above normal temperatures (record highs/mins). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 cry all you want, it's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 I agree and talk about confusing the h*ll out of the trees! We go from hot and dry to drowning them to cool to summer like warmth in October. Its happening later than in '07 and it's been much wetter but no idea what affect it will have on the foliage at this point. Why anyone would wanna crack 90 is mid October is beyond me, even 80s in October sounds pretty disgusting. Seeing 90 in September is fine because it's still more or less a summer month but seeing that in October when the foliage season is in full effect and we are deeply rooted into fall is awful. Models look to maintain that strong ridge for a while, could be up to a two week stretch of well above normal temperatures (record highs/mins). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 LOL The gfs shows Philippe or his entity continuing sw, turning sharply ENE and then going back west when the huge ridge builds, which is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 The warmest I ever saw it on my birthday,OCT 14th was 83 back in 1975.Oct 1979 hit 88 degrees after near record cold and sonw on OCT 1th and he rest of the fall and winter were a disaster.OCT 1990 had 6 days of temps in the 80s with high dewpoints in the first half of the month.OCT 1995 had several 80+ degree days and that was a great winter that followed.OCT 1997 had a couple of days in the mid 80s.Oct 2007 was obviously horrible here as was the winter that followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 The warmest I ever saw it on my birthday,OCT 14th was 83 back in 1975.Oct 1979 hit 88 degrees after near record cold and sonw on OCT 1th and he rest of the fall and winter were a disaster.OCT 1990 had 6 days of temps in the 80s with high dewpoints in the first half of the month.OCT 1995 had several 80+ degree days and that was a great winter that followed.OCT 1997 had a couple of days in the mid 80s.Oct 2007 was obviously horrible here as was the winter that followed. Not saying there's a connection, but Christmas 1990 had record warmth here as well. Previous Christmas obviously had record cold with lows well below 0 in some places (-12 F here). Whatever happens with this warm spell, as disappointing as it would be, at least it'll be dry. We need a good dry stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Not saying there's a connection, but Christmas 1990 had record warmth here as well. Previous Christmas obviously had record cold with lows well below 0 in some places (-12 F here). Whatever happens with this warm spell, as disappointing as it would be, at least it'll be dry. We need a good dry stretch. 1975 had an inch of snow on Christmas..real no connection..and in 1990 we had 5 inches of snow on December 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 lots of orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 cry all you want, it's happening why would anybody cry..warm dry Octobers usually lead to snowy winters,if you want a cool Oct like 1974 and 1988 be my guest..following winters were dreadful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 why would anybody cry..warm dry Octobers usually lead to snowy winters,if you want a cool Oct like 1974 and 1988 be my guest..following winters were dreadful! October 1955 and 1995 were pretty mild...Last year was a little above the so called normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 12Z Euro is still looking toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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