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Models Advertising Late Month Storm And Cold Front


bluewave

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the euro has 850 mb temps of +12 to +17 sat/sun/mon with westerly flow. we could hit 85 if that happens

At 7 or 8 days out I think I'll take my chances. Plenty of time for those ideal warming conditions to not pan out.

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the euro has 850 mb temps of +12 to +17 sat/sun/mon with westerly flow. we could hit 85 if that happens

That would be nice, but whats better is both the gfs and ecm are showing generally dry conditions through and beyond day 7/8. We could use a nice dry/sunny stretch. Some warmth would be bonus for those who enjoy it.

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That would be nice, but whats better is both the gfs and ecm are showing generally dry conditions through and beyond day 7/8. We could use a nice dry/sunny stretch. Some warmth would be bonus for those who enjoy it.

I'm not looking forward to the 80s again, I'm sick of the warmth although dry conditions are a plus especially if lows stay in the 50s. For me, dry, with temps in the mid 60s to 70 with nights in the upper 40s to mid 50s would be ideal this time of the year and perfect for the fall foliage.

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considering the big AK vortex and trough coming into the western US, it will be hard for us not to be warm

Models have consistently showed a warming period in the October 7-10th timeframe.

I'm with you and agree that we will have a very warm period in this timeframe. The ingredients are all there.

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Looking more in the medium range, the 18z run of the GFS is fairly impressive (moreso than 12z) with the shot of cool air Thurs/Fri. Airmass originates in SE Canada so a direct shot from the north; 850's approach 0c in NYC. Probably a first freeze (32F) scenario for many suburbs, particularly the lower hudson valley, central/eastern LI, and CT.

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