atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z ECM at 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Wow... The Euro crushes us up here.. lol smh. Im glad I stayed up for that entertainment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z ECM at 120 hrs LOL, its all alone, unless its got the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 LOL, its all alone, unless its got the UK. ECM pretty much has the UK.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 EURO actually gives the city proper 1-2" of snow this run. I'll be excited if we have a mix or flurries... anything in October is a huge bonus/awesome. The most significant thing about this storm (if it happens) will be the precedent it sets for the winter... if we are already getting ideal set-ups for snow and it's only October, my confidence in a 30"+ winter will go up dramatically. Even though this storm will likely amount to nothing for most, if we have something close to a repeat even 2-3 weeks in the future, there is a good chance it would be a moderate to significant snow event, especially for so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 ECM pretty much has the UK.... Not surprising showing a similar solution, I still have a small interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah, Euro is colder than 12Z, its about as good as you could hope for on October 30. Wow. Nice run. Ukie is lock step with it. Heights sub 540 in NYC and 850 line way east even in the first frame. Surface only issue here but not in the second frame. Also has a nice cold flow from the NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z JMA also has a big storm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sadly euro is completely on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sadly euro is completely on its own Ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 System is impressively deep right off the coast and timed well, too, on the Euro. That run probably brings accumulating snow to the immediate suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The GGEM was a scraper at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean is still east of the OP but more amplified than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean is still east of the OP but more amplified than the GFS. Typical ensemble bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The Euro ensemble mean is still east of the OP but more amplified than the GFS. That seems pretty fair to me...more often than not the GFS will be too de-amplified with mid level troughs at this range. Judging by its interaction with the two shortwaves after 100 hours..this time is no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Typical ensemble bias? Well at 120 hours the ensembles will almost always be less amplified and wound up than an operational run, simply because what you're looking at is a smoothed mean of 30 sub-members medium range forecast. I wouldn't call it a bias, more of a normalcy for those products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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