Allsnow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The last part of the storm is in the upper 30's for all of us, while 850's are well below freezing. .75" of precip falls during this timeframe. After the storm pulls away, euro indeed does show temps below 32, even in the city for Sunday night into Monday morning. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Thanks Check out the 18z NAM. Has temps of 34-36, after the Thursday night storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 At work, but the end of NAM run likely brings a bit of white to all west or north of the city. Can't believe I'm saying it. Let's hope these trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Check out the 18z NAM. Has temps of 34-36, after the Thursday night storm. Great...granted its the Nam....but most of the area has a chance to get into the 30's this weekend .....if we get the forky warm sector for get about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 At work, but the end of NAM run likely brings a bit of white to all west or north of the city. Can't believe I'm saying it. Let's hope these trends continue. Critical thicknesses bring flakes into the city too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Scratch that, twister data pulled wrong sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12z Euro Wunderground snow maps: They even have C NJ getting a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12z Euro Wunderground snow maps: They even have C NJ getting a few inches of snow. Is that for a specific interval, or the entire storm? I couldnt find out how to get a snowmap for the entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 It would be nice if we could beat out last year by a week. http://www.newsday.c...temps-1.2438660 Getting the upper low to close off would help like last November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z GFS warmest yet with the first storm, but given how this model has performed recently, not sure I buy it. Second storm taking shape now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It would be nice if we could beat out last year by a week. http://www.newsday.c...temps-1.2438660 Getting the upper low to close off would help like last November. that was a pretty sweet block right there to get that to stall and retrograde. Picked up 1 inch from storm. UKMET nailed it. I remember posting the UKMET soundings and how cold they were. It was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 trough orientation is a bit to the west this run, lets see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 GFS is all northern stream. Totally sheers out the southern vort whereas the Euro is a split stream phase. GFS has a bad bias of sheering out vorts. It may give a similar solution but in a totally different way. Right now the UKMET would be a GFS/EURO compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Holy BRRRR batman, 0C line into central VA at 105 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 GFS starts to close of 500MB low over great lakes at hour 111. Looks like it will swing right under or over KNYC but appears surface low is way OTS as it totally sheers out whatever was in the south. Euro already had storm forming over the south at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 no phase= no care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 that was a pretty sweet block right there to get that to stall and retrograde. Picked up 1 inch from storm. UKMET nailed it. I remember posting the UKMET soundings and how cold they were. It was spot on. Yeah, it was great early pattern for snow like the end of October back in 2008. New Jersey did well with that one. http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_17731.html?from=blog_permalink_month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 and that's exactly what you get, basically nada. Classic GFS sheer job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 and that's exactly what you get, basically nada. Classic GFS sheer job. The GFS has been having a lot of trouble with both of these systems IMO. Last night it had a cold front lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z NAM clown maps have 10" in Litchfield county. 5" at High point NJ and around an inch for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Is that for a specific interval, or the entire storm? I couldnt find out how to get a snowmap for the entire run It is for a 6 hour interval. There is more snow that falls after this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z NAM clown maps have 10" in Litchfield county. 5" at High point NJ and around an inch for everyone else. 6-8" for MBY according to that map... lol smh I highly doubt it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 6-8" for MBY according to that map... lol smh I highly doubt it.. If only you were at Zuckers (former) elevation. Then you would be locked loaded and ready to plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If only you were at Zuckers (former) elevation. Then you would be locked loaded and ready to plow. I drove past Dobbs Ferry earlier today and If I had to guess I would say 2-3' easily already on the ground there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 So thankful this thread isn't like the mess up in the SNE. Good clean solid discussion here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 despite losing the 'southern stream' vorticity in the upper air pattern, the gfs still shows the volatility of the pattern with the degree of northern stream trough amplification that occurs. this shortwave is very strong in itself and, being helped by a rolling ridge over the rockies and weak transient blocking near greenland, can amplify pretty rapidly. i would have to think, at this point, that the system will come farther west than the gfs indicates on it's 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 despite losing the 'southern stream' vorticity in the upper air pattern, the gfs still shows the volatility of the pattern with the degree of northern stream trough amplification that occurs. this shortwave is very strong in itself and, being helped by a rolling ridge over the rockies and weak transient blocking near greenland, can amplify pretty rapidly. i would have to think, at this point, that the system will come farther west than the gfs indicates on it's 18z run. The model is just atrocious beyond 84 hours with southern stream vorts, especially with a fast northern stream flow. Its dampens all of them out to the point they don't even exist. The northern stream is so potent it closes off over Michigan yet can't interact with any kind of surface reflection because what little energy is left in the southern split stream is way too far out to sea. The whole trough should be sharper as the two streams interact, but alas, the gfs craps all over it. Even sadder is how the gfs ensembles barely show anything either, and they are supposed to offer some kind of control, yet we continously see them follow the op no matter what. Someone should pull up the experimental GFS and see what its showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z Nam is 1+ of rain ending as some wet flakes nw.....by 12z friday it has us all in the mid 30's or below..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 00z Nam is 1+ of rain ending as some wet flakes nw.....by 12z friday it has us all in the mid 30's or below..... dont trust the NAM at all at this range. Likely ends up warmer, even up north. Its colder than the euro, so take that FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 0z GFS is still OTS with the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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