dbc Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 some of our snowiest winters had a warm October... 1947 1963 1968 1995 The warmest/coldest Octobers before a La Nina or near la nina winter are, warmest... year.....winter snowfall 1950......11.6"... 1954......11.5" 1961......18.1" 1971......22.9" 1973......23.5" 1984......24.1" 1995......75.6" 2007......11.9" average 24.9" Coldest..... 1964......24.5" 1974......13.1" 1988........8.1" 2008......27.6" average 18.3" A warmer October isn't the worst thing that can happen...there is a 50/50 chance we see a decent winter either way... Where does 2002 and 2003 rank in the cold Octobers. Are they even in the top 10 coldest Octobers? And yes I know those were El Nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Where does 2002 and 2003 rank in the cold Octobers. Are they even in the top 10 coldest Octobers? they were el nino years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 they were el nino years... I know, lol, I edited my post just before you replied. I am just asking in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 I know, lol, I edited my post just before you replied. I am just asking in general. they were cold Octobers...The list of el nino or weak positive Octobers... 1976 1977 1987 1992 2002 2003 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 they were cold Octobers...The list of el nino or weak positive Octobers... 1976 1977 1987 1992 2002 2003 2009 Thanks! That is what I figured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Anyone have access to JB on weather bell? Just was curious what his thoughts were for this winter. Apparently he posted his winter outlook. in a nutshell Coldest part of winter relative to normal--Nov and Dec, with warming after that...goes for above normal snows for the northeast-especially Feb...cautions that his end of winter warmup could bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 I have never brought into the idea that a warm october = a warm winter. Some years just looking at the October pattern alone is not much help either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 in a nutshell Coldest part of winter relative to normal--Nov and Dec, with warming after that...goes for above normal snows for the northeast-especially Feb...cautions that his end of winter warmup could bust. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 the AO went from negative in August to Positive in September...2009 saw that also and December was way negative...It's forecast to go negative in October... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 It really bugs when everytime a cold snap is coming people act like that is the end of the warm weather. I think after 3 days in the 60s we'll easily be back up into the low 70s by next Tuesday. Lee on Channel 7 basically said no more 70s until next spring...I mean that's just absurd to say that and we're not even in October yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 It really bugs when everytime a cold snap is coming people act like that is the end of the warm weather. I think after 3 days in the 60s we'll easily be back up into the low 70s by next Tuesday. Lee on Channel 7 basically said no more 70s until next spring...I mean that's just absurd to say that and we're not even in October yet. When a forecaster.(I think it was Jim Kosic of Accuweather)said that AUG 8 would be the last 90 degree day in NYC few believed him.And that is what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 It's one thing to say we probably wont hit 80 again but 70? the average high is still over 70 for another week, of course we'll see 70 again When a forecaster.(I think it was Jim Kosic of Accuweather)said that AUG 8 would be the last 90 degree day in NYC few believed him.And that is what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 It's one thing to say we probably wont hit 80 again but 70? the average high is still over 70 for another week, of course we'll see 70 again I would say 75 is possible still.The high dewpoints we have seen over the past week are gone until next year when we get rid of this tropical air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 It's one thing to say we probably wont hit 80 again but 70? the average high is still over 70 for another week, of course we'll see 70 again agreed.. we've had some warm Octobers.. I remember the one from several years ago. If I remember correctly, the first week or two, we were consisantly over 80 degrees. If you want to say that at the end of October, that is much more reasonable.. those temps become much more uncommon by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 October's average max is over 80... decade........ave max...max 1910's..........80.1..........87 1920's..........81.4..........90 1930's..........81.2..........91 1940's..........84.9..........94 1950's..........83.6..........88 1960's..........82.2..........86 1970's..........78.1..........88 1980's..........78.5..........84 1990's..........79.1..........86 2000's..........79.1..........87 the lowest max for October is 66 set in 1880...It was 70 in 1977 and 71 in 1981... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 It really bugs when everytime a cold snap is coming people act like that is the end of the warm weather. I think after 3 days in the 60s we'll easily be back up into the low 70s by next Tuesday. Lee on Channel 7 basically said no more 70s until next spring...I mean that's just absurd to say that and we're not even in October yet. agree...he could be right for the wrong reasons though--could have an 80 degree day and then back into the 60's so he'd be right, no more 70's. :arrowhead: :arrowhead: - seriously though...what makes folks think that we would not hit 70 again??? it's 9/28 for Christ sake. I've seen 70 in November here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Haha :-) Plus none of the models are really showing the cold air sticking around so I think we'll be up near normal or above after 3 or so days below. agree...he could be right for the wrong reasons though--could have an 80 degree day and then back into the 60's so he'd be right, no more 70's. :arrowhead: :arrowhead: - seriously though...what makes folks think that we would not hit 70 again??? it's 9/28 for Christ sake. I've seen 70 in November here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 agreed.. we've had some warm Octobers.. I remember the one from several years ago. If I remember correctly, the first week or two, we were consisantly over 80 degrees. If you want to say that at the end of October, that is much more reasonable.. those temps become much more uncommon by then. Oct 2007.I hit 90 on the 8th.The dewpoints were awful as well.I hit 80 again the 3rd week of the month.That is tied with Oct 1947 for the warmest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 It's one thing to say we probably wont hit 80 again but 70? the average high is still over 70 for another week, of course we'll see 70 again We have hit 70 in November many times...in october 70 plus is very common.And it has no indication of the following winter.The have been cool Octobers with blowtorch winters and visa versa..very warm Octobers with snowy cold ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 The average high is still near 70 F going into October for most of the area, so it's silly to suggest that they're gone for the season. I'd say it's unlikely after Halloween, but even in November it's still possible. Oct 2007.I hit 90 on the 8th.The dewpoints were awful as well.I hit 80 again the 3rd week of the month.That is tied with Oct 1947 for the warmest on record. That warm spell in October 2007 was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 70 is the threshold for temps which can be achieved almost any month during the year. January is quite rare of course but it has happened (2007). It's fairly common at least every couple years to have 70s in December and February as well. The average high is still near 70 F going into October for most of the area, so it's silly to suggest that they're gone for the season. I'd say it's unlikely after Halloween, but even in November it's still possible. That warm spell in October 2007 was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Different strokes for different folks. Its been consistently warm from late May through now (with exception to the mid-month cool shot). Time for some real autumn weather. Seriously.. It seems like people along the coast, and people that work inside and have limited time outside are the ones that like the heat the most. Work my job for a week with temps in the 80's you'll be singing a different tune. I would much rather see highs in the low to mid 60's this time of the year. Considering that is the normal and all for up here. This weekend is going to feal amazing with highs in the 50's up here. They are talking possible snow flurries at elevations above 2k up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Seriously.. It seems like people along the coast, and people that work inside and have limited time outside are the ones that like the heat the most. Work my job for a week with temps in the 80's you'll be singing a different tune. I would much rather see highs in the low to mid 60's this time of the year. Considering that is the normal and all for up here. This weekend is going to feal amazing with highs in the 50's up here. They are talking possible snow flurries at elevations above 2k up here! lol, I work outside every day and love the heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 We have hit 70 in November many times...in october 70 plus is very common.And it has no indication of the following winter.The have been cool Octobers with blowtorch winters and visa versa..very warm Octobers with snowy cold ones I have found that the largescale patterns across the country in October do have some bearing on the following winter, at least during -ENSO years. This is just a general correlation, so of course there are years that don't follow this. But overall, if you see a ridgy pattern in the West during a -ENSO October, that is a better sign for winter along the east coast than a troughy pattern in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 I have found that the largescale patterns across the country in October do have some bearing on the following winter, at least during -ENSO years. This is just a general correlation, so of course there are years that don't follow this. But overall, if you see a ridgy pattern in the West during a -ENSO October, that is a better sign for winter along the east coast than a troughy pattern in the West. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 18z GFS is mighty cool through 10 days. Basically no warm-up. What did the 12z Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 lol, I work outside every day and love the heat You sir, are crazy lol. Well when you have 80 degrees and you're working on top of a roof 8-10 hours a day in direct sunlight. You can easily add another 10-15 degrees onto that, It just plain old sucks! Luckily i'm not on a roof everyday. I frame houses, so I love when we are working in the basements and we have the subfloor down! Nice and cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 18z GFS is mighty cool through 10 days. Basically no warm-up. What did the 12z Euro show? Shows snow for the Catskills... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Shows snow for the Catskills... lol I wouldn't doubt it one bit. Some of the local Nepa mets are forecasting possible snow showers/flurries for elevations higher elevations out this way. Not uncommon one bit for October well north and west of the city. It will surly feel strange after the pattern we have been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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