CooL Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 138 is a beauty, gets me really excited for winter. Closed 500mb low over NJ with the low bombing out, someone will see snow with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 turns into a fairly impressive storm... just east of cape cod.. nice.. too bad it's late October and not late December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 On this run, between 6z sunday and 12z sunday everyone has the chance to see some flakes as heights crash. 530ish heights across the city good enough for wet snow. NW jersey could see 2-4 at the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Berkshires will get 6 inches easy out of this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro has plenty of precip between 6z and 12z sunday. It should be snowing, especially with no day time heating. The storm is bombing so fast, plenty of cold should be sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 This looks spot on to the 12z ukmet from yesterday, closed 500 bombing low off the coast of jersey out to the east of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Albany had a Halloween snowstorm in 1987 if memory serves me right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro has plenty of precip between 6z and 12z sunday. It should be snowing, especially with no day time heating. The storm is bombing so fast, plenty of cold should be sucked in. Well, the good news is its still 5 days away. It’s going to be fun seeing which way this trends! 50 miles east or west makes a HUGE difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Last post, 500mb will be right over head at 6z too, so its a favored time to get the flakes as it passes over, verbatim on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well, the good news is its still 5 days away. It’s going to be fun seeing which way this trends! 50 miles east or west makes a HUGE difference! Yeah, given the time of day this storm would be coming through, if this was 50 miles to the east, everyone would see snow and NW jersey hudson valley Danbury CT on North would see nice accumulation. Probably still too warm in the city but it would be their best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah, given the time of day this storm would be coming through, if this was 50 miles to the east, everyone would see snow and NW jersey hudson valley Danbury CT on North would see nice accumulation. Probably still too warm in the city but it would be their best shot. Do we go below freezing after the storm pulls away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Do we go below freezing after the storm pulls away? Maybe monday morning, but euro is usually 1-2C to warm with surface temps, tough to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The foreign models blowing up a storm make me pretty optimistic about its chances. GFS is far too often late to the party in these setups. The big contrast that would exist between 60s water temps and 30s over land could blow up a big storm. The Poconos/Catskills and even NW NJ can certainly have accums-the higher you go this time of year, even 500 feet, can make a major difference. Down near NYC would be much harder and would need huge dynamics to overcome urban heating and warm air near the shore. I would expect possibly a brief burst of snow or flurries at the end as opposed to a sustained snow event. Like others have said, too bad this isn't December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Do we go below freezing after the storm pulls away? The last part of the storm is in the upper 30's for all of us, while 850's are well below freezing. .75" of precip falls during this timeframe. After the storm pulls away, euro indeed does show temps below 32, even in the city for Sunday night into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The last part of the storm is in the upper 30's for all of us, while 850's are well below freezing. .75" of precip falls during this timeframe. After the storm pulls away, euro indeed does show temps below 32, even in the city for Sunday night into Monday morning. And thicknesses are below 540 by a good emount. Flakes will be in the air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wunderground maps are insane.....solid 2-4 for immediate N-W suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 A lot of people think it's already December with the upcoming storm and its definitely not. The best we can hope for is a few wet snowflakes really, it's not like we are going to get accumulating snows people, not near the coast or in the city. Perhaps in the higher elevations of PA, NW NJ, maybe, not here. It'll definitely feel like winter is around the corner if we get this noreaster type system but 40s and rain is yuck at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Wunderground maps are insane.....solid 2-4 for immediate N-W suburbs Even AG3 gets an inch, but who knows how good those are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Its 140hours out Fixed, and answer my pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It looks like Upton isn't quite ready to use the 'S' word just yet. Even in there far N&W zone of Western Passaic .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. A lot of people think it's already December with the upcoming storm and its definitely not. The best we can hope for is a few wet snowflakes really, it's not like we are going to get accumulating snows people, not near the coast or in the city. Perhaps in the higher elevations of PA, NW NJ, maybe, not here. It'll definitely feel like winter is around the corner if we get this noreaster type system but 40s and rain is yuck at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It looks like Upton isn't quite ready to use the 'S' word just yet. Even in there far N&W zone of Western Passaic .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. Of course not, its forever away and early in the season, but they were noting last night the storm was going to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 330 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 VALID 12Z THU OCT 27 2011 - 12Z MON OCT 31 2011 DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD EXPECT A MODERATELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHICH OVER A MULTI-DAY TIME FRAME SHOULD AVERAGE OUT TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN AXIS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE IN GUIDANCE EVOLUTION OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE SENSITIVITY TO ACCURATE TIMING OF UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FEATURES. INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS ARE DESCRIBED BELOW FROM EAST TO WEST. SOLNS STILL DISPLAY A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE WAVE FCST TO TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST AROUND LATE DAY 3 THU. THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN PROVIDE THE BEST INTERMEDIATE TRACK BETWEEN THE FARTHEST LEFT 00Z GEFS MEAN AND MORE SUPPRESSED 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN. THE 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM THE ECMWF TRACK BUT ARE A LITTLE FASTER. IN 12Z GUIDANCE THE CMC IS STILL SUPPRESSED WHILE THE UKMET IS SLOW. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN ARE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE SPREAD BUT AT LEAST THE SWD ADJUSTMENT OF THE GEFS MEAN AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TO SOME DEGREE NARROWS THE NRN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. UPSTREAM THERE IS A DECENT MAJORITY OPERATIONAL CLUSTER SUGGESTING THAT MORE SHRTWV ENERGY WILL BE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND VICINITY AT THE START OF THU THAN FCST BY LATEST GFS RUNS. SOME GEFS MEMBERS ALSO FAVOR THE ECMWF CLUSTER THOUGH NOT IN SUFFICIENT NUMBERS TO BE WELL REFLECTED IN THE CORRESPONDING MEAN. 12Z SOLNS APPEAR TO BE GRAVITATING TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EXTREMES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHEARED NEWD AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES FLOW BY SAT TO YIELD AN ERN CONUS TROF WHOSE PRECISE SHARPNESS WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK OF ASSOC SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY AFFECT SOME AREAS OVER THE EAST. THE 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ALL INDICATE A MORE DEVELOPED WRN ATLC SYSTEM THAN SHOWN IN LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH ONLY THE 00Z CANADIAN MORE SUPPRESSED. THE STRONGEST AND MOST WWD ECMWF/UKMET ARE WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD... BUT OCCASIONAL TENDENCY TOWARD OVER-DEVELOPMENT IN THE UKMET AND LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE ECMWF AND OTHER MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR A COMPROMISE APPROACH AMONG THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/06Z GFS PERHAPS LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF TRACK BY EARLY SUN ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES JUST S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE 12Z UKMET IS PERSISTENT WITH STG COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE WWD OF ITS 00Z RUN. THE 12Z CMC HAS COMPLETELY REVERSED FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST WWD TRACK DURING THE WEEKEND. ONLY THREE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST AN ECMWF/UKMET TYPE EVOLUTION BUT OPERATIONAL TRENDS FAVOR A STRONGER TREND TO THE 00Z ECMWF FOR NOW WHILE AWAITING BETTER CLUSTERING AND ESTABLISHMENT OF CONTINUITY BEFORE ADJUSTING FARTHER WWD TO THE 12Z ECMWF. THE FIRST SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND FRI. THE 06Z GFS COMPARES LESS FAVORABLY TO OTHER SOLNS AS IT DISPLAYS A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED FEATURE ON FRI... THOUGH EXTREME TRAITS DIMINISH THEREAFTER. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS MORE REASONABLE AT LEAST INTO SAT. AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES INLAND DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME TIMING/DETAIL SPREAD DEVELOPS WITH 00Z-12Z GFS RUNS LEANING TO THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE SPREAD AND THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN TO THE SLOW AND SWWD ELONGATED SIDE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS BETWEEN THE TWO. NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES THAT MULTI-DAY MEANS INDICATE TO VARYING DEGREES OVER THE NRN ATLC BY D+8 TELECONNECT TO A POSITIVELY TITLED MEAN TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS... FAVORING SOME INCLUSION OF THE ECMWF MEAN ALONG WITH THE INTERMEDIATE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. HOWEVER NEG HGT ANOMALIES TO THE N OF ALASKA OFFER POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT FLATTER/FASTER SOLN. THE FINAL SYSTEM OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REACH WRN CANADA AND THE PAC NW AROUND SUN-MON WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS THE NOTABLE EXTREMES FOR AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROF. THE ARRAY OF 12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE COMPELLING REASON TO ALTER PRIOR THINKING FOR THESE SYSTEMS. BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS THE UPDATED PRELIM FCST STARTED WITH A BLEND OF MOSTLY 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN AND 20 PCT OF THE LESS PROBABLE GEFS MEAN FOR THE DAYS 3-7 THU-MON FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR FCST UNCERTAINTY. DUE TO STG/WRN NATURE OF 12Z OPERATIONAL SOLNS WITH THE SFC LOW NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND... FINAL ISSUANCE ADJUSTS MORE STRONGLY TO NEAR THE 00Z ECMWF WHILE AWAITING CONFIRMATION OF AN EVEN MORE WRN TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE EARLY IN THE FCST FOR THE LEADING WAVE DEPARTING FROM THE EAST COAST. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR OTHER FEATURES. EXPECT FAIRLY WARM AND DRY CONDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE WEST WITH ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF GENERALLY LGT-MDT PCPN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING ONE OR MORE DAYS WITH HIGHS 10 DEG F OR GREATER BELOW AVERAGE. INITIAL WAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOC WITH ONE AREA OF PCPN FROM THE MID ATLC SWWD EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MORE PCPN MAY MOVE OVER THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST. WITH BOTH SYSTEMS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOW OVER FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE A COUPLE AREAS OF LGT PCPN MAY EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GRTLKS/OH VLY DURING THE PERIOD. RAUSCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Not that they are believable, and credit to AG3 on this, but wunderground euro snow maps are 4-5 inches n and w of city and 2-3 even down over western LI. They are 3 hour increments. I would buy it if it wasn't october 30, but I don't like how warm the surface is, it has to be all dynamically driven, very tough to do at the coast. Not impossible, but very tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If nothing else, a valid sign/assurance to many long range guys who believe legitimate snow chances will come in early this season (November). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Let's do this 2008 style! http://good-times.we...568336738YJCJqf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If nothing else, a valid sign/assurance to many long range guys who believe legitimate snow chances will come in early this season (November). And a sign that coastal storms will continue to be prevelant for portions of this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 And a sign that coastal storms will continue to be prevelant for portions of this upcoming winter. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z NAM would end as some wet snow, very small window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 18z NAM would end as some wet snow, very small window. Temps in the 30's with precip still falling. Hour 75: Hour 78: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 seeing the NAM so cold and the euro much warmer first event makes me think NAM is being its usual self, too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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