TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yeah but how good are dynamics going to be with a 1002mb low? there are some decent VV's, you need a stronger system, as I said, like the euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 there are some decent VV's, you need a stronger system, as I said, like the euro showed. The vort is somewhat impressive in of itself, but without any closing off, I dont think you'll see anything too crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Verbatim, the GFS is around 40 inland, 40-45 on the coast while H85 is near -8. Thats one impressive warm pocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12z Ukie on board for the Saturday coastal. Looking at the French website graphics, appears to be south of the GFS, with a similar strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The vort is somewhat impressive in of itself, but without any closing off, I dont think you'll see anything too crazy I only want to see snow. It's been too long. What was the last flakes of last winter, third week of February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Verbatim, the GFS is around 40 inland, 40-45 on the coast while H85 is near -8. Thats one impressive warm pocket Its called October. Cananda is snowless and its been warm for a long time courtesy of Earthlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I only want to see snow. It's been too long. What was the last flakes of last winter, third week of February? we had snow in march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 we had snow in march Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What are the ocean temps this time of year? My guess is they are still in the 55 to 60 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 What are the ocean temps this time of year? My guess is they are still in the 55 to 60 range. yes, but that's not the problem. Surface winds are N and NNE. It's just warm out. Its not a very deep cold airmass and its traveling over a lot of dirt and moderates quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Its called October. Cananda is snowless and its been warm for a long time courtesy of Earthlight. Climatologically, Northern Quebec is not even supposed to be snow covered at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 GFS says 4" of slop for HPN http://coolwx.com/mo...2/KHPN/prec.png Cross section of temps has the surface at 35 freezing level between 900-925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Climatologically, Northern Quebec is not even supposed to be snow covered at this time. I dont why anybody looks at snowcover till November..that is the main month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12Z UKMET 120 hours 12Z UKMET 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 And then there is the CMC doing its classic full phase closed of 500mb inland runner. LOL, that model sucks. How many times last winter did it have inland runners for the three big storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 ^ Forky gets his dry slot and warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Really? yea heres the record i found of it by google http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2011/03/22/snow-forecast-for-wednesday-march-23-through-thursday-march-24-2011/ it was about an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 ^ Forky gets his dry slot and warm sector How he must hate the very notion that there could be some flakes in the air. Look for 5 OT threads on how he hates winter and people who want snow in October. The CMC has never met a pair of vorts it didn't fully phase. That model has serious issues. Look how cold it is on the first event, its just completely in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 euro seems like it's in between the NAM and GFS in terms of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Non-event storm 1 on euro for anyone south of Mass Pike. storm 2 getting going over the SE at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro is more amplified with the second storm so far compared to 00z. This time of year, not a good thing if you're looking to get flakes away from higher elevations. Likely a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think you guys are gonna like the euro, at least its 500mb depiction. And woa at the heights over davis straights at 114. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro is more amplified with the second storm so far compared to 00z. This time of year, not a good thing if you're looking to get flakes away from higher elevations. Likely a coastal hugger. its going to be a BM bomb. Look at the block west of greenland and the pressure tendencies at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Someone in the Northeast, probably up towards Albany and the hudson valley is going to have a very nice treat on Halloween weekend. Its too warm for us, but up there is going to get a nice hit. This is the exact track and setup you want around xmas. Right now, just too early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 low is staring to crank 00Z sunday with 0C 850 line going through the city. Nice hit for the catskills, maybe nw jersey. Too warm everywhere else with the 540 thickness line in NW mass. SNE too warm too. It may crash next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Someone in the Northeast, probably up towards Albany and the hudson valley is going to have a very nice treat on Halloween weekend. Its too warm for us, but up there is going to get a nice hit. This is the exact track and setup you want around xmas. Right now, just too early in the season. How close to the coast are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 132 hours has a sub 1000mb low tucked in east of ACY. What a hammering this would be about a month later. Instead it's rain in the mid 40's. Maybe some wet flakes north and west and the immediate burbs as the temperatures crash towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 How close to the coast are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 6Z Sunday flakes in the city as the low passes east of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Surface low goes over Martha's Vineyard at 138 hrs...may end as snow for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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