KEITH L.I Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well we saw some good snows fall and we even got a light dusting a couple years ago in late October, first time I ever witnessed October snow in NJ, and last year I saw a few wet flakes and sleet as well. Almost seems like it's easier to see frozen precip in October than late March, early April. Late March,early April have had some major snowstorms,even on the coast..October has had none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Late March,early April have had some major snowstorms,even on the coast..October has had none Well I meant in the past few years, I know past Aprils had snowstorms, the biggest one that I remember recently was April 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 That October 28th, 2008 event was awesome. We had nearly 2" of snow on Cook Campus, and it was near blizzard-like conditions at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 euro is warmer and north with the first storm (~84hrs) but plenty of precip. the second storm is stronger and comes up the coast. 144 hr panel is below (lol you have got to be kidding me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 euro is warmer and north with the first storm (~84hrs) but plenty of precip. the second storm is stronger and comes up the coast. 144 hr panel is below (lol you have got to be kidding me). oh noes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's all funny stuff this far out. But I would take the EC at this pt. The GFS seems to STILL have an issue with a cold bias with not linking up the N/S stream. Wait a couple of dayz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Just saw the EC. The timing of the vorts is all sorts of messed up. Fail. Then again, it is early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 KFOK is at 33 degrees Fahrenheit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro is now Dr. Yes after having been Dr. No for all those years. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The DGEX has been pretty useful to me over the past several years in picking out trends among medium term guidance. The model is deemed completely useless by a moderately large portion of the weather community, which in itself is a mistake. It is prone to wild swings in it's solutions, but you have to know how to understand what it's trying to tell you. Such is the case with all forecast models, really, but the DGEX especially. It's certainly not my model of choice, nor do I blend it into my forecasts very often, but I will tell you this much. I have seen it pick out a storm threat, a thunderstorm event, and a huge heat ridge over a week in advance. With the heat ridge specifically..it was within 2-4 degrees of the observed temperature at over 120 hours out. Pretty impressive if you ask me. I've also seen it go absolute bat-sh** crazy with non-sensical solutions. If you don't believe me, ask any of the people who have been posting on this board for three-four years. I post the DGEX when it shows something awesome--and there are witnesses here who have seen it verify. So take it for what it's worth. Been following it for couple years. I think it's about as useful at the GGEM. It develops almost everything. So it's likely to verify every about 1 out of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Been following it for couple years. I think it's about as useful at the GGEM. It develops almost everything. So it's likely to verify every about 1 out of 10 times. The 6z Dgex lost everything. 1st storm looks like GFS. Cold front. 2nd storm is way offshore, like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The 6z Dgex lost everything. 1st storm looks like GFS. Cold front. 2nd storm is way offshore, like the GFS. it's a frankenstein model with no stability whatsoever. It probably hasn't even been updated in years. Last thing I can find on it is from 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM is real close, boys. We've got some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Just the chance at wet snow flakes in October is enough for me. One of my favorite storms for Middlesex county area in NJ was a few years ago before halloween when we got a couple of inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 what's even more impressive is that the NAM is showing sub freezing 2M temps, even during the daylight hours of Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 H5 is still digging at 84 hours on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 lol storm vista NAM snowfall graphic has 18-24 inches of snow from about Binghamton to Kingston, NY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 it felt like we were just talking about possibilities of Newark hitting 90 degrees and now this... This is all happening much too fast for me.. someone check me into therapy. I need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Model madness is starting early this year...third week of October, not bad. At least we have a potential coastal storm to track, which is a positive sign, albeit a small one, for the ensuing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 H5 is still digging at 84 hours on the NAM. This post gave me goosebumps lol. It read like we were just discussing a storm and this was December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 This post gave me goosebumps lol. It read like we were just discussing a storm and this was December. this is a nice warmup, gets everyone into tracking mode. If we avoid IMBY posts and silly predictions, we can have good disco and the newbies can learn about 850 temps, 925 temps, surface temps, patterns, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 H5 is still digging at 84 hours on the NAM. To an extent, but the window for getting frozen precipitation to the immediate suburbs is quickly passing by 84 hours on the 12z run. Notice the area of feedback directly over NYC associated with the passage of the best positive vorticity advection. The base of the upper level shortwave is already poised to pass the area in the next 6 hours after the last frame of the NAM. Although the H85 low is closed off, it's literally a little too late and a hair too far north. By the time the cold conveyor belt develops (if it can) the mid levels would support it's development over Southern New England at 90-96 hours...with the possibility of the feature extending south-westward towards Northern NJ and NYC. There's two sides to each argument, though, and to your defense the NAM VV's and RH maps are impressive at the 84 hour mark--which would suggest the south-west extension option that I mentioned above could have a possibility of coming to fruition should this upper air setup verify as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 To an extent, but the window for getting frozen precipitation to the immediate suburbs is quickly passing by 84 hours on the 12z run. Notice the area of feedback directly over NYC associated with the passage of the best positive vorticity advection. The base of the upper level shortwave is already poised to pass the area in the next 6 hours after the last frame of the NAM. Although the H85 low is closed off, it's literally a little too late and a hair too far north. By the time the cold conveyor belt develops (if it can) the mid levels would support it's development over Southern New England at 90-96 hours...with the possibility of the feature extending south-westward towards Northern NJ and NYC. There's two sides to each argument, though, and to your defense the NAM VV's and RH maps are impressive at the 84 hour mark--which would suggest the south-west extension option that I mentioned above could have a possibility of coming to fruition should this upper air setup verify as modeled. the surface reflection is still developing and tightening, check out the 925 low and how its beginning to contract quickly, and while the window is VERY short, it won't take much to see some flakes at the coast and a slushy accumulation north and west. Now what happens later in the period is up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM 2M temps almost looked a little too cold to me, but it's kind of silly to get picky this far out. Things have to come together just right. You really want to be in the sweet spot of the 700 low with 950-850 temps continually dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 here is the VV/RH map Earthlight and I are talking about. Its a long shot, but cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM 2M temps almost looked a little too cold to me Agreed..especially over Central New York with the 20's. I think 30's are definitely possible throughout the Northeast...but the moderately large spread of 20's F temps is a little ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 things at 250 mb don't look half bad either.. it's got that dual jet streak structure kind of look over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Does the euro get the suburbs below freezing this weekend? I know alot of focus is on the upcoming costal threat....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Agreed..especially over Central New York with the 20's. I think 30's are definitely possible throughout the Northeast...but the moderately large spread of 20's F temps is a little ridiculous. Well I think it may be picking up the 2500'+ spots which might be ok. My thing was that it has 100-850mb critical thickness line over BOS until 00z Friday when it collapses se. That seemed a little too cold for me, but maybe it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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