jm1220 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Hopefully we see more of these kind of setups as Fall progresses, with phasing threats and a developing block. In the right setup it wouldn't surprise me if central PA on north had some good snows. It happened in Oct 2005 and 2009 there, can definitely happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 +AO/+NAO is the overall trend until mid-late NOV IMO but this is a good thing.The NAO has been overall positive since Mid AUG,the AO overall positive since Irene.Let it keep this up until after Thanksgiving and then both go negative until late JAN. Agree Andrew, I'm liking the way this pattern's unfolding. Solar parameters have been weakening over the past month, just in time to head into the cold/blocking season of Nov-March. The +NAO/AO given the low solar environment says to me that we're going to reverse in a big way, about 30-40 days from now. Should set us up for an interesting ride Thanksgiving through New Years IMO. A lot of cold air showing up on the map globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Agree Andrew, I'm liking the way this pattern's unfolding. Solar parameters have been weakening over the past month, just in time to head into the cold/blocking season of Nov-March. The +NAO/AO given the low solar environment says to me that we're going to reverse in a big way, about 30-40 days from now. Should set us up for an interesting ride Thanksgiving through New Years IMO. A lot of cold air showing up on the map globally. I just find it funny that some people think that because we are having lots of storms that are cutting inland right now, they think that it will contune through early February, meanwhile the average pattern is about 6-10 weeks and we have been in this pattern for around 6 weeks already, so I can see it coming to an end around mid to late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I just find it funny that some people think that because we are having lots of storms that are cutting inland right now, they think that it will contune through early February, meanwhile the average pattern is about 6-10 weeks and we have been in this pattern for around 6 weeks already, so I can see it coming to an end around mid to late November. I don't necessarily buy that an October pattern dictates the winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I don't necessarily buy that an October pattern dictates the winter pattern. That's why I don't understand why some think that just because most storms since Irene have been inland runners, does not mean that will happen during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 That's why I don't understand why some think that just because most storms since Irene have been inland runners, does not mean that will happen during the winter. who are you talking about? no one is saying that in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 That's why I don't understand why some think that just because most storms since Irene have been inland runners, does not mean that will happen during the winter. who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 who are you talking about? no one is saying that in this thread. I mean on other treads, they keep saying it is "a good sugih for winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Snow now introduced into the forecast by Upton.. Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 lol, if the dgex verified they would have to introduce WSW. I posted it in the banter thread but its lol worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 lol, if the dgex verified they would have to introduce WSW. I posted it in the banter thread but its lol worthy Lol dgyx sucks. When was the last time it was correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 not the point, no one takes it too seriously, but that's a nutty map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 not the point, no one takes it too seriously, but that's a nutty map. Yes it is!! Maybe we should stick to weather!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Lol dgyx sucks. When was the last time it was correct? The DGEX has been pretty useful to me over the past several years in picking out trends among medium term guidance. The model is deemed completely useless by a moderately large portion of the weather community, which in itself is a mistake. It is prone to wild swings in it's solutions, but you have to know how to understand what it's trying to tell you. Such is the case with all forecast models, really, but the DGEX especially. It's certainly not my model of choice, nor do I blend it into my forecasts very often, but I will tell you this much. I have seen it pick out a storm threat, a thunderstorm event, and a huge heat ridge over a week in advance. With the heat ridge specifically..it was within 2-4 degrees of the observed temperature at over 120 hours out. Pretty impressive if you ask me. I've also seen it go absolute bat-sh** crazy with non-sensical solutions. If you don't believe me, ask any of the people who have been posting on this board for three-four years. I post the DGEX when it shows something awesome--and there are witnesses here who have seen it verify. So take it for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 dgex seems to do better predicting classic heat waves compared to snow storms in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The DGEX has been pretty useful to me over the past several years in picking out trends among medium term guidance. The model is deemed completely useless by a moderately large portion of the weather community, which in itself is a mistake. It is prone to wild swings in it's solutions, but you have to know how to understand what it's trying to tell you. Such is the case with all forecast models, really, but the DGEX especially. It's certainly not my model of choice, nor do I blend it into my forecasts very often, but I will tell you this much. I have seen it pick out a storm threat, a thunderstorm event, and a huge heat ridge over a week in advance. With the heat ridge specifically..it was within 2-4 degrees of the observed temperature at over 120 hours out. Pretty impressive if you ask me. I've also seen it go absolute bat-sh** crazy with non-sensical solutions. If you don't believe me, ask any of the people who have been posting on this board for three-four years. I post the DGEX when it shows something awesome--and there are witnesses here who have seen it verify. So take it for what it's worth. Never forget you posting it Christmas eve last year enough said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 let's not kid ourselves, its a broken clock. Yeah, it picks some things out, but its a frankenstein model run off hours. Its biggest use is probably temperatures as it blows up every low it can off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 18z GFS still seems to have trouble with the storm. Seems to want to break it into 2 parts and then gets confused from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I love the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 That would be a great late birthday present if the dgex verifies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 The DGEX has been pretty useful to me over the past several years in picking out trends among medium term guidance. The model is deemed completely useless by a moderately large portion of the weather community, which in itself is a mistake. It is prone to wild swings in it's solutions, but you have to know how to understand what it's trying to tell you. Such is the case with all forecast models, really, but the DGEX especially. It's certainly not my model of choice, nor do I blend it into my forecasts very often, but I will tell you this much. I have seen it pick out a storm threat, a thunderstorm event, and a huge heat ridge over a week in advance. With the heat ridge specifically..it was within 2-4 degrees of the observed temperature at over 120 hours out. Pretty impressive if you ask me. I've also seen it go absolute bat-sh** crazy with non-sensical solutions. If you don't believe me, ask any of the people who have been posting on this board for three-four years. I post the DGEX when it shows something awesome--and there are witnesses here who have seen it verify. So take it for what it's worth. February 2010 it was predicting about 3-4 feet of snow for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and everyone laughed at it. 'Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 February 2010 it was predicting about 3-4 feet of snow for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and everyone laughed at it. 'Nuff said. Every model, no matter how crappy it is, has it's day(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Every model, no matter how crappy it is, has it's day(s) Yes, but you declared it completely useless. My point was that it's not, you just have to know how to interpret it and when to toss its solution in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 ensembles are cold on the gfs straight through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 ukie lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 ensembles are cold on the gfs straight through GEFS and Euro vs OP GFS? Pretty easy answer there, the GFS is probably too aggressive with the original vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 if it does snow, its not going to be until the end of the storm. I give NW jersey and Orange County 15% of greater than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 if it does snow, its not going to be until the end of the storm. I give NW jersey and Orange County 15% of greater than an inch. For there, I'm willing to go a bit higher. Specifically NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well we saw some good snows fall and we even got a light dusting a couple years ago in late October, first time I ever witnessed October snow in NJ, and last year I saw a few wet flakes and sleet as well. Almost seems like it's easier to see frozen precip in October than late March, early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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