TheTrials Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 It doesn't matter what the GFS says..It's October lol..enjoy the beautiful fall weather..2 months to winter! 63 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 How soon til our first entry in the snowfall forecast? I'm sure some people had early November 63 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 How soon til our first entry in the snowfall forecast? I'm sure some people had early November multiple october entries dying a quick death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 GFS is really just delayed a bit on the 12z run compared with the 06z run which I posted earlier. These are -10 C 850 temps just N of the border in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 12Z Euro says wet mangled flakes could be in the air Thursday evening 10/28 into Friday morning 10/29 everything is cold enough save the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 12Z Euro says wet mangled flakes could be in the air Thursday evening 10/28 into Friday morning 10/29 everything is cold enough save the surface. would be nice to get the first frost or freeze for my allergies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 12Z Euro says wet mangled flakes could be in the air Thursday evening 10/28 into Friday morning 10/29 everything is cold enough save the surface. Even the surface is in the upper 30's on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 would be nice to get the first frost or freeze for my allergies Listen Keith, if we wanted to hear about your allergies, we would subscribe to your allergy blog Just kidding, lol, I hear ya, the bugs and trees must die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Nogaps has something sorta similar to Euro. Wave of LP after the front clears and its cold enough for wet flakes. Time sensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 earthlight is coming in and is about to stick a dagger through our hopes and dreams for end of the month flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 63 days. 63? You mean 40. December 1st is the start of winter meteorologically. The first week of Dec is usually when legitimate SECS chances begin. Not too far away now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 63? You mean 40. December 1st is the start of winter meteorologically. The first week of Dec is usually when legitimate SECS chances begin. Not too far away now. lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Once we do DST time change in a couple weeks and the leaves are off the trees, that's when the winter feeling really kicks in for me at least. 5pm sunsets, model 00z start times an hour earlier, ah good times. But I think after the past couple years, we should be going into this winter with lower expectations. Don't expect three storms over 12" or a 34" blizzard on the NJ shore. Maybe it'll happen, but I'll be satisfied with slightly above normal snowfall this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Once we do DST time change in a couple weeks and the leaves are off the trees, that's when the winter feeling really kicks in for me at least. 5pm sunsets, model 00z start times an hour earlier, ah good times. But I think after the past couple years, we should be going into this winter with lower expectations. Don't expect three storms over 12" or a 34" blizzard on the NJ shore. Maybe it'll happen, but I'll be satisfied with slightly above normal snowfall this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The AO/NAO both look to be overall positive for the forseeable future so dont expect any type of significant below normal departures from normal for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 The AO/NAO both look to be overall positive for the forseeable future so dont expect any type of significant below normal departures from normal for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 GFS cold shot is nonexistent on the 18z. The trough digs in the Midwest and lifts right out just like the events of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 This far out the main problem is the non-existent 50/50 low. We need a ULL over SE canada to help pull down a trough and stop this thing from cutting inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 last night's euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Finally feels like fall today....love this weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 Looking like the coldest temperatures of the season so far coming in behind the front next weekend. Euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Looking like the coldest temperatures of the season so far coming in behind the front next weekend. The Euro is certainly very enthusiastic about it now. The GFS has flipped a bit and now has temperatures generally 1-3 degrees below normal. I like the general pattern for a moderate but transient cold shot. I think there will be a few days of - 4-8 degree departure from normals...and then a rebound towards more normal temperatures. This pattern doesn't offer much hope for a consistent below normal regime at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 The Euro is certainly very enthusiastic about it now. The GFS has flipped a bit and now has temperatures generally 1-3 degrees below normal. I like the general pattern for a moderate but transient cold shot. I think there will be a few days of - 4-8 degree departure from normals...and then a rebound towards more normal temperatures. This pattern doesn't offer much hope for a consistent below normal regime at all. Yeah,the blocking this fall has been too close to our north for any sustained cold. With the +EPO pattern we are normally warmer here but the persistent closed low pattern has been keeping areas further south cooler relative to the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Behind the front on the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 How do high clouds manage to form every damned night so that that the temps are kept from dropping quickly? So annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 euro flipped again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 euro flipped again Yeah,it looks like it was struggling with the dominant northern branch in the split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 +AO/+NAO is the overall trend until mid-late NOV IMO but this is a good thing.The NAO has been overall positive since Mid AUG,the AO overall positive since Irene.Let it keep this up until after Thanksgiving and then both go negative until late JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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