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Models Advertising Late Month Storm And Cold Front


bluewave

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While it's too early to pin down the details of the trough amplification in the East, both the Euro and GFS ensembles agree on the general idea

of a cold front crossing the region toward the end of the month.

Euro ensemble mean

GFS Ensemble mean

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This is a very impressive ensemble graphic for a Day 8 forecast. The agreement amongst the GFS ensembles is fairly unanimous for an outbreak of well below normal temperatures over the Eastern 1/3 of the CONUS during this time period. The Euro still doesn't want to budge, but if you're hoping for cold air this is definitely a good sign to see.

D8.gif

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Looks like the ensembles have the bulk of the departures centered away from the east coast, just like this last cold shot verified. Well it didn't verify well anywhere actually. But at least they got some below 0C 850's to our west.

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Looks like the ensembles have the bulk of the departures centered away from the east coast, just like this last cold shot verified. Well it didn't verify well anywhere actually. But at least they got some below 0C 850's to our west.

so what, its october, means nothing.

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I know we've seen it before but the GFS still maintains we get a cold blast the 29th - 31st. But by then normals are barely 60 so even low to mid 50s would be nothing that shocking. We need a sub 50 day and a low to mid 30s at night.

GFS is still pretty impressive though. Temps in that setup would be at or below freezing for all of us.

But its the GFS in the long range, as you said.

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