Nikolai Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 If the 0z EURO is to be believed... at 240 hours... (aka low chance) there's a decent possibility of a first freeze in the city itself a few days later with Canada having its first legitimately cold airmass of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 last year the monthly min for October was 42...The max was 75...The last time it hit 32 or lower was 1988... The averages... decade....Ave.max/min...max...min......l 1880's.....77.0...34.1......87...29...... 1890's.....77.4...37.3......87...34...... 1900's.....77.1...37.5......82...32...... 1910's.....80.1...37.1......87...32...... 1920's.....81.4...35.3......90...29...... 1930's.....81.2...36.3......91...28...... 1940's.....84.9...37.8......94...30...... 1950's.....83.6...38.0......88...33...... 1960's.....82.2...35.3......86...31...... 1970's.....78.1...35.7......88...29...... 1980's.....78.5...37.2......84...31...... 1990's.....79.1...38.8......86...34...... 2000's.....79.1...38.1......87...36...... 2010's.....78.5...42.0......82...42...... 1880- 2009.......80.0...36.8...................... 1980- 2009.......78.9...38.0...................... October 1972 was plenty cold, with a bit of snow as well. Would you want that as an omen for the coming winter, as in 1972-3? The more recent weak La Nina Winters that worked out decently in winter for us here (1995-96, 2000-01 & 2008-09) had an average high temperature in October of anywhere from 64-67 degrees (67.9 1995, 65.2 2000 and 64.6 2008). The low temperatures averaged anywhere from 43-48 degrees (48.1 1995, 44.0 2000 & 43.3 2008). Obviously this is a small sampling and has probably little relevance to anything but I guess it is something to shoot for in 2011. Just for kicks last year was a 65.0 average high and a 51.2 average low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 It looks like we'll have to watch for the possible development of a low topped squall line on Friday. With a 60 kt mid level jet, a line of convection could get going even with meager cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 It looks like we'll have to watch for the possible development of a low topped squall line on Friday.With a 60 kt mid level jet, a line of convection could get going even with meager cape. That would be an excellent 45th birthday gift for me.I hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 That would be an excellent 45th birthday gift for me.I hope it happens. A very happy 45th birthday to you Andrew. My 45th is coming up this February 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 A very happy 45th birthday to you Andrew. My 45th is coming up this February 11th. Thanks.Hopefully there will be a blizzard on your birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Thanks.Hopefully there will be a blizzard on your birthday. Yeah, 1983 was my favorite birthday storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Happy 45 Andrew...I was 45 in 1994...The record snowfall for 2/11 fell in 1994... .snowfall...snowcover 12.8" in 1994...21" in 1994 12.5" in 1983...20" in 1926 10.0" in 1933...13" in 1983 ..6.2" in 1944...12" in 1948 ..5.8" in 1888...12" in 1969 ..4.5" in 1986...11" in 1961 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I want the 80s back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 God is this weather boring.. if its going to rain, let it pour please enough of this misty crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 God is this weather boring.. if its going to rain, let it pour please enough of this misty crap. the weather has been boring since irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I want the 80s back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 /big bust for most on the rain tonight tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Its pouring at the moment /big bust for most on the rain tonight tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 /big bust for most on the rain tonight tomorrow.... It's looked like that on the models for a few runs now. Not sure why they would hold on to such rainy forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Its pouring at the moment Yea and it will be over in 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 We've had a little convergence zone over E CNJ the past several hours, and as a result I'm at 0.35" of rain. Been raining fairly steady light-moderate since 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 rain with some rumbles of thunder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Nothing more than an on/off drizzle last night. Just cloudy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 A whopping .15 here for the event total...Upton still has rain for today and radar shows zilch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 The thunderstorm in NYC itself was impressive last night... torrential downpour for 15 minutes or so, had to have picked up at least an inch where I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 had maybe .10 for this event and that may be generous, probably closer to .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Tomorrow is my 45th birthday.Oct 14th 1977 and 1995 both had heavy rainfall from a cold front and we had great winters that followed.Oct 14th 1988 had rain for a noreaster and that was a crappy winter.Lets hope for a stormy day tomorrow and make it 3 for 3 with a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 The thunderstorm in NYC itself was impressive last night... torrential downpour for 15 minutes or so, had to have picked up at least an inch where I was. I thought I saw lightning flashes last night in Queens.That storm missed us but dropped 0.43 in NYC and in 15 minutes like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 The models look like they want to bring through an area of convection early in the day with a break around lunchtime followed by more storms later in the day possibly into the early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Barely scraping 60 for highs on Sunday with nearly 25kt west winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Barely scraping 60 for highs on Sunday with nearly 25kt west winds Looks like the Giants-Bills game will have the Meadowlands winds to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 319 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108- NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-141000- LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS- SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY- MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM- FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM- SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD- NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON- WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 319 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT...AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... ITS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW NARROW BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THAT WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MIGHT CAUSE MINOR URBAN FLOODING FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE MINOR URBAN FLOODING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Looks like we could have two threats for strong thunderstorms....one overnight tonight (06-09z) and another Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Cant take this rain, its making me sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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