Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 See ya 80s, no more after today til April! lol...poor Lee Goldberg..didnt he just saw a few weeks ago no more 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 lol...poor Lee Goldberg..didnt he just saw a few weeks ago no more 70s Pretty dumb thing to say in any given year and then we get 2-3 days 80 or better now....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Pretty impressive diurnal range today -- 36 degrees. Morning low was 47.8F and made it to 84 for the high here in Monmouth. My lows for the past 4 nights in Monmouth County: 10/6: 38.1F 10/7: 39.4F 10/8: 42.4F 10/9: 47.9F Managed to stay in the 40s every night, not bad. Don't think I'll do it tonight 50F low here, just missed the 40s. Dropped from 84 to 50 (34F range). Now already up to 72 and rising fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 44 F this morning. Already up to 76 F. Looks like it'll be another day with a diurnal range of nearly 40 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 44 F this morning. Already up to 76 F. Looks like it'll be another day with a diurnal range of nearly 40 F. Pretty wild-pants and jacket in the morning, shorts and tshirts afternoon, back to pants and jackets by nightfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 See ya 80s, no more after today til April! 12z euro honking heat big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 October's average max is over 80... decade........ave max...max 1910's..........80.1..........87 1920's..........81.4..........90 1930's..........81.2..........91 1940's..........84.9..........94 1950's..........83.6..........88 1960's..........82.2..........86 1970's..........78.1..........88 1980's..........78.5..........84 1990's..........79.1..........86 2000's..........79.1..........87 the lowest max for October is 66 set in 1880...It was 70 in 1977 and 71 in 1981... two days now with temperatures 80 or above in October ...here is a list of the most 80 degree and above days for October and beyond... 1954...8 1963...7 1946...6 1990...6 1922...5 1931...5 1949...5 1950...5 1961...5 1968...5 1995...5 2007...5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 12z euro honking heat big time Yeah it'll be interesting to see how the longer range plays out because right now the ecm and gfs just disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 After a beautiful stretch if weather.....looks like wed to friday are dreary and wet. Euro has about 2 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 snapped two photos at manasquan yesterday. taken with iphone 4. also included two from yankee stadium alds game 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 12z euro honking heat big time It's the euro and it's over 5 days...nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 It's the euro and it's over 5 days...nuff said. Check out last night's run...it could not be more different for us when compared to the 12z run. Zero heat and actually keeps us in troughiness right to the end of the run with chilly air entering our region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Yeah. The 0z euro run completely flipped. Has a colder pattern setting up and a very cold day 8-10 now. Complete 360 from it's 12z run. Matches the GFS very well now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 That is what the GFS had been showing as well. Quite chilly the end of next week which now seems to have eased a bit Yeah. The 0z euro run completely flipped. Has a colder pattern setting up and a very cold day 8-10 now. Complete 360 from it's 12z run. Matches the GFS very well now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Cold should dominate the Northeast w/ successive shots of Canadian air post October 20th +/- a couple days, through the end of the month. MJO will be circulating back into phase 2 in about 10 days which promotes a neg height anomaly over the Northeast. Right now we're in phases 7-8, which at this time of year, argue for strong ridging in the east. Unlike last year I think the MJO may be a more helpful forecasting tool in the MR/LR for the upcoming winter due to a weaker Nina signal (I'll be using it in my winter forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 We'll see, to me cold this time of year means no better than low 50s during the day and 30s at night even in coastal/urban areas. Mid 60s is basically average to above normal by mid month Cold should dominate the Northeast w/ successive shots of Canadian air post October 20th +/- a couple days, through the end of the month. MJO will be circulating back into phase 2 in about 10 days which promotes a neg height anomaly over the Northeast. Right now we're in phases 7-8, which at this time of year, argue for strong ridging in the east. Unlike last year I think the MJO may be a more helpful forecasting tool in the MR/LR for the upcoming winter due to a weaker Nina signal (I'll be using it in my winter forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Complete 360 from it's 12z run. You mean 180... 360 would mean no change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Yeah. The 0z euro run completely flipped. Complete 360 from it's 12z run. Drinking already at 7:58am? Come on, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Cold should dominate the Northeast w/ successive shots of Canadian air post October 20th +/- a couple days, through the end of the month. MJO will be circulating back into phase 2 in about 10 days which promotes a neg height anomaly over the Northeast. Right now we're in phases 7-8, which at this time of year, argue for strong ridging in the east. Unlike last year I think the MJO may be a more helpful forecasting tool in the MR/LR for the upcoming winter due to a weaker Nina signal (I'll be using it in my winter forecast). The upper level trough around 90 hours begins the pattern change with you discussed. Most medium range models are beginning to converge on a second deep upper level trough moving into the Northern 1/3 of the US by 180 hours or so as well. The pattern completely changes over the next several days as we enter what may actually be considered a late-fall pattern if you were to judge via mid level heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Gfs is pretty chilly for next week....really starting to notice alot of color on the trees this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Gfs is pretty chilly for next week....really starting to notice alot of color on the trees this week. Same here, though many have turned brown and have diminished the overall quality this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 It looks like both the NAM and GFS hold off most of the significant rain until Thursday now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 First freeze next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 in the city? no way, upper 30s at best First freeze next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 12z euro also has a cold pattern days 7-10. Day 10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 last year the monthly min for October was 42...The max was 75...The last time it hit 32 or lower was 1988... The averages... decade....Ave.max/min...max...min......l 1880's.....77.0...34.1......87...29...... 1890's.....77.4...37.3......87...34...... 1900's.....77.1...37.5......82...32...... 1910's.....80.1...37.1......87...32...... 1920's.....81.4...35.3......90...29...... 1930's.....81.2...36.3......91...28...... 1940's.....84.9...37.8......94...30...... 1950's.....83.6...38.0......88...33...... 1960's.....82.2...35.3......86...31...... 1970's.....78.1...35.7......88...29...... 1980's.....78.5...37.2......84...31...... 1990's.....79.1...38.8......86...34...... 2000's.....79.1...38.1......87...36...... 2010's.....78.5...42.0......82...42...... 1880- 2009.......80.0...36.8...................... 1980- 2009.......78.9...38.0...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I loveeee today's 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Cold should dominate the Northeast w/ successive shots of Canadian air post October 20th +/- a couple days, through the end of the month. MJO will be circulating back into phase 2 in about 10 days which promotes a neg height anomaly over the Northeast. Right now we're in phases 7-8, which at this time of year, argue for strong ridging in the east. Unlike last year I think the MJO may be a more helpful forecasting tool in the MR/LR for the upcoming winter due to a weaker Nina signal (I'll be using it in my winter forecast). I agree about the MJO tool being useful this year more than normal. But I suppose you could say this is the "obligatory HM agrees with using the MJO" post. The situation into early November is tricky because a phase 3-4 type scenario could be quite a warm scenario over portions of the west-central states. But, given that it is early enough in the month, the waves may be short enough to allow the Canadian pipeline to develop early in the month. Tricky 2-week forecast that's for sure. Either way, the cold is likely going to come at some point, in earnest, during November in the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Gotta like seeing the +PNA ,-NAO set up. West based NAO nonetheless. Minus the lake cutters ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 85 degrees is to warm this time of year and I would much rather it be cooler obviously,but with a dew of 48,it is MUCH better than the several days of 80s and the 90 degree temp with dewpoints consistently between 65-70 that was during OCT 2007. October 1972 was plenty cold, with a bit of snow as well. Would you want that as an omen for the coming winter, as in 1972-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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