bluewave Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 The models are starting to converge on the idea of a cool start to October. We'll have to wait and see the actual depth of the trough digging into the East to determine how low the temperatures get. It looks like we will see a rise in the PNA as was the case with the cool temperatures that we experienced during September 16th-19th. Euro ensemble mean GFS ensemble mean GFS 2m temperature departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2011 Author Share Posted September 25, 2011 It looks like the models have the temperatures for the first seven days of October averaging below normal in the East. Recently we saw this warm in the West cool in the East pattern during the first seven days of October 2010, 2008, and 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 That is going to feel really nice compared to this crap we have right now.Hopefully October is below normal,something we have not seen much of in the past 19 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 That is going to feel really nice compared to this crap we have right now.Hopefully October is below normal,something we have not seen much of in the past 19 months. Amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Amen. Yeah, ditto that. I can't take this wretched humidity anymore, and coupled with the constant cloudiness, mold has been sky high. In addition, cool temps Oct 1-7 will speed up foliage by the time I go to Vermont on the 8th. So far it's been a slow start to the color season. Here's hoping for a chilly/+NAO October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Yeah, ditto that. I can't take this wretched humidity anymore, and coupled with the constant cloudiness, mold has been sky high. In addition, cool temps Oct 1-7 will speed up foliage by the time I go to Vermont on the 8th. So far it's been a slow start to the color season. Here's hoping for a chilly/+NAO October. I'm hoping to go to the Catskills on the 9th if I can drag ag3's ass to go with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 It does look like the coldest air of the season looks to be moving in late this week-early next week, with 850 mb Temps getting down below freezing on Sunday for everyone in the NYC area, per the 12z GFS. With the 10m temperatures on Sunday, per the 12z GFS, they look to get into the upper 40s as highs in NW NJ, which would be very unusual, even for them. C NJ and NYC look to see highs into the mid 50s with the 12z GFS. And with this cool shot, nighttime lows could dip into the 40s with NYC, and even the upper 30s in the Suburbs. The 12z GFS is likely overdoing the cold, as it did with the last cool shot, but it is just another sign that summer has ended, and the pattern is gradually transitioning to a cooler pattern for fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 It does look like the coldest air of the season looks to be moving in late this week-early next week, with 850 mb Temps getting down below freezing on Sunday for everyone in the NYC area, per the 12z GFS. With the 10m temperatures on Sunday, per the 12z GFS, they look to get into the upper 40s as highs in NW NJ, which would be very unusual, even for them. C NJ and NYC look to see highs into the mid 50s with the 12z GFS. And with this cool shot, nighttime lows could dip into the 40s with NYC, and even the upper 30s in the Suburbs. The 12z GFS is likely overdoing the cold, as it did with the last cool shot, but it is just another sign that summer has ended, and the pattern is gradually transitioning to a cooler pattern for fall. I thought the last cool shot wasn't overdone; we had a high in the low 60s with lows around 50 for a couple days which was in line with the guidance. If anything our actual highs wound up colder than the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 I thought the last cool shot wasn't overdone; we had a high in the low 60s with lows around 50 for a couple days which was in line with the guidance. If anything our actual highs wound up colder than the forecast. Agree. I tend to notice highs are slightly cooler than forecast behind cold fronts w/ strong high pressure in the autumn/winter. Spring into summer usually goes the opposite direction, with underdone fcst highs. In addition, the upgrade to the GFS last year has eliminated much of its prior cold bias. I wouldn't be surprised to see frosts/freezes across much of suburbia next weekend; second year ninas tend to feature stronger cold shots in early-mid fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 It looks like the models have the temperatures for the first seven days of October averaging below normal in the East. Recently we saw this warm in the West cool in the East pattern during the first seven days of October 2010, 2008, and 2003. Looks a lot like last year at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 That is going to feel really nice compared to this crap we have right now.Hopefully October is below normal,something we have not seen much of in the past 19 months. Agreed. Not enjoying this warm, humid weather. I'm ready for some cool, fresh air to come back so I can open up the house again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Would have never thought after the cool down last week that we could end up +2 to +3 for the month. With a very mild week on tap that seems to be where we are headed. October starts cool but models are waffling as to whether it warms right back up or stays at least seasonal. Agreed. Not enjoying this warm, humid weather. I'm ready for some cool, fresh air to come back so I can open up the house again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 hey i will take this humidity and warmth if Im not getting any sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Let any warmth come now. Get it out of the way before winter. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 26, 2011 Author Share Posted September 26, 2011 Looks a lot like last year at this time. It will be interesting to see how the month turns out on average. Last October started out cool and averaged above normal even though we had a persistent trough over the Northeast in the means. The warmth from the 24th-28th was enough to put us over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 October 2010 averaged 58.1...That is 1.0 above the 1981-2010 average...It was average for the 1931-60 period...Below average for the 1941-70 period...1964 was probably the coldest first half of October in my lifetime...1988 was also very cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 October 2010 averaged 58.1...That is 1.0 above the 1981-2010 average...It was average for the 1931-60 period...Below average for the 1941-70 period...1964 was probably the coldest first half of October in my lifetime...1988 was also very cold... Dropped down to 17 F here on Halloween 1988. I always thought that was the October record low, but NOW data suggests the record low is 7 F on 10/22/1940. Could it be an error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Dropped down to 17 F here on Halloween 1988. I always thought that was the October record low, but NOW data suggests the record low is 7 F on 10/22/1940. Could it be an error? it was 30 in NYC in October 1940...I remember it being in the low 20's a few mornings in the Poconos in October 1974... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 it was 30 in NYC in October 1940...I remember it being in the low 20's a few mornings in the Poconos in October 1974... If it was 30 F in NYC, then I highly doubt it was 7 F out here. Maybe they meant 17, which would be more plausible. 1974: October 19th through the 25th were in the 20s here, four days at 20 F or 21 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2011 Author Share Posted September 27, 2011 Not a bad match for MJO phase 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 the euro dropped the lingering cutoff idea and now has ridging building in after the cold shot. a few more steps in that direction and we will have 80's in october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 the euro dropped the lingering cutoff idea and now has ridging building in after the cold shot. a few more steps in that direction and we will have 80's in october How can you like 80's in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 I thought the last cool shot wasn't overdone; we had a high in the low 60s with lows around 50 for a couple days which was in line with the guidance. If anything our actual highs wound up colder than the forecast. The GFS for one predicted that C NJ would get into the Mid to Upper 30s, but we got into the lower 40s instead for the low temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 The GFS for one predicted that C NJ would get into the Mid to Upper 30s, but we got into the lower 40s instead for the low temperatures. The true mark of a cold airmass is how chilly the daytime highs are. Don't let the less than ideal radiational cooling conditions that the models didnt pick up on right away trick you into thinking that it wasn't as impressive a cool shot as the models indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 How can you like 80's in October? how can you not, lord knows we deserve it, its been cloudy and crappy rain for virtually the past two months. Its an extended summer, feel good time to be outside, nothing wrong twith that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 how can you not, lord knows we deserve it, its been cloudy and crappy rain for virtually the past two months. Its an extended summer, feel good time to be outside, nothing wrong twith that Different strokes for different folks. Its been consistently warm from late May through now (with exception to the mid-month cool shot). Time for some real autumn weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 some of our snowiest winters had a warm October... 1947 1963 1968 1995 The warmest/coldest Octobers before a La Nina or near la nina winter are, warmest... year.....winter snowfall 1950......11.6"... 1954......11.5" 1961......18.1" 1971......22.9" 1973......23.5" 1984......24.1" 1995......75.6" 2007......11.9" average 24.9" Coldest..... 1964......24.5" 1974......13.1" 1988........8.1" 2008......27.6" average 18.3" A warmer October isn't the worst thing that can happen...there is a 50/50 chance we see a decent winter either way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 some of our snowiest winters had a warm October... 1947 1963 1968 1995 The warmest/coldest Octobers before a La Nina or near la nina winter are, warmest... year.....winter snowfall 1950......11.6"... 1954......11.5" 1961......18.1" 1971......22.9" 1973......23.5" 1984......24.1" 1995......75.6" 2007......11.9" average 24.9" Coldest..... 1964......24.5" 1974......13.1" 1988........8.1" 2008......27.6" average 18.3" A warmer October isn't the worst thing that can happen...there is a 50/50 chance we see a decent winter either way... It's interesting that after the warm Octobers before the snowy winters that you listed, high latitude blocking developed for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 some of our snowiest winters had a warm October... 1947 1963 1968 1995 The warmest/coldest Octobers before a La Nina or near la nina winter are, warmest... year.....winter snowfall 1950......11.6"... 1954......11.5" 1961......18.1" 1971......22.9" 1973......23.5" 1984......24.1" 1995......75.6" 2007......11.9" average 24.9" Coldest..... 1964......24.5" 1974......13.1" 1988........8.1" 2008......27.6" average 18.3" A warmer October isn't the worst thing that can happen...there is a 50/50 chance we see a decent winter either way... I have never brought into the idea that a warm october = a warm winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Anyone have access to JB on weather bell? Just was curious what his thoughts were for this winter. Apparently he posted his winter outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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