Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Justin Berk posted these up on Facebook ... anyone see it? NOAA December 8th Map Discussion about weekend Part 1: NOAA December 8th Map Discussion about weekend Part 2: Justin Berk, Meteorologist Part 2 of the NOAA discussion for this weekend storm.. Stephen Flood shows the worst case scenario... potential blizzard. This is the most extreme model he thought had some life to it. Most likely turning to rain then ending with snow for Mid Atlantic.... but the signs show it could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 i met up with justin earlier.. he is a really nice guy. i've met him in the past but he is very friendly. i hope he keeps posting here going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Justin Berk, Meteorologist Part 2 of the NOAA discussion for this weekend storm.. Stephen Flood shows the worst case scenario... potential blizzard. This is the most extreme model he thought had some life to it. Most likely turning to rain then ending with snow for Mid Atlantic.... but the signs show it could be worse That part is a train wreck. I think alluding to this as a potential blizzard is absurd. I like discussions though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 i met up with justin earlier.. he is a really nice guy. i've met him in the past but he is very friendly. i hope he keeps posting here going forward. I've only posted somethings back and forth with him a few times. This was back when he used to blog. That was back in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I've only posted somethings back and forth with him a few times. This was back when he used to blog. That was back in 2009. we did his radio show a few yrs back but havent been in contact with him till recently. i met up to give him a copy of my book and did a short interview with him. he was on his way to ncep after to meet with kocin and apparently the rest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 we did his radio show a few yrs back but havent been in contact with him till recently. i met up to give him a copy of my book and did a short interview with him. he was on his way to ncep after to meet with kocin and apparently the rest.. You did write it? I remember you talking about it last year. About previous DC snowstorms right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 You did write it? I remember you talking about it last year. About previous DC snowstorms right? just last winter for now... shelved the other idea for the future. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/snowmageddon_--_the_book.html anyway, back to the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 that vid is interesting though... is he dr no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 of course the 18z GFS has to come up with a new solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Justin Berk posted these up on Facebook ... anyone see it? NOAA December 8th Map Discussion about weekend Part 1: NOAA December 8th Map Discussion about weekend Part 2: Well, it sure looks like the 18Z GFS is going to lean towards "member 7". It'd be mostly snow or mixed just west of IAD. But...it also appears that the 18Z is basically going to delay phasing a long, long time. As in maybe points NE of NYC would get hammered. Again, just another wild perturbation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The question did not pertain to what was happening with this system... The question as it'd pertain to this system is what's germain to this thread. Not to mention that the question was actually asked as the result of the Yoda noting that half the members produce snow (with this system). I don't disagree with you're exception to my answer, though. I'm about to be guilty of quibiling over semantics to the point of being pedantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It looks like the spread has widened on the 18z ensembles..the surface low is weaker and the precip field is broad. One thing is for sure--they aren't inland. The mean surface low is 992mb off Ocean City, MD at 108 hrs..and then 988 Southeast of Long Island at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Well this runs the gamut... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 ensembles look now much more east then west. Most Members would give us snow...some good snow and a few historic snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's interesting to note that one of the highest analog dates, from last weekend, for this coming Sunday/Monday correlates to 11/26/50. It's even more interesting when you compare the historical weather map to the EC for this coming Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 ensembles look now much more east then west. Most Members would give us snow...some good snow and a few historic snow it does seem that way but how do you side with the gfs over the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 it does seem that way but how do you side with the gfs over the euro? This is certainly a valid point Ian, but we both know the Euro can't win em all...especially since the UKMET is a very close second in verification with the GFS a narrow 3rd. Btw, how can I get a copy of your book? Let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 it does seem that way but how do you side with the gfs over the euro? Especially when the euro ensembles are in its camp. I think it's ensemble mean is suggesting almsot all its members are in the west camp with the ggem and now the 00Z 84 hr NAM. Of course it's the 84 hr nam.I guess one caveat is that it does have a weakness along the east coast but temps are already over zero at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The Sterling office has introduced mixed precipitation east of the Blue Ridge. Just barely. The 0Z models still show boundary layer issues -- lack of cold air -- and 850 mb low placement NW of our region and therefore, strong WAA at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 With all the model differences and the back and forth, and with even our mets, whose knowledge is amazing, unsure themselves, it will make for an interesting 3-4 days. Looking at the 6z GFS ensembles, there are about 3 or 4 that really forecast an interesting scenario here in the MA. I guess at this point, almost anything is possible, even if it isn't likely. I've seen it mentioned that by tonight at 0z or by morning the models would have better data and presumably a better forecast. I guess we have to wait and see. Meanwhile, we can hope one of those GFS ens. solutions actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 With all the model differences and the back and forth, and with even our mets, whose knowledge is amazing, unsure themselves, it will make for an interesting 3-4 days. Looking at the 6z GFS ensembles, there are about 3 or 4 that really forecast an interesting scenario here in the MA. I guess at this point, almost anything is possible, even if it isn't likely. I've seen it mentioned that by tonight at 0z or by morning the models would have better data and presumably a better forecast. I guess we have to wait and see. Meanwhile, we can hope one of those GFS ens. solutions actually happens. Well said. Backend snows historically have not amounted to much in our region, but GFS for three straight runs shows that cold infusion could give us at least a chance of a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 6Z GFS is a little weird. Big shift toward the Lakes Cutter idea of the Euro. But with a weaker storm, it leaves some energy down south and doesn't drag (huge) amounts of warm air northward with it. Looks like an anafront situation where we get some snow BEHIND the cold front as the energy is transferred from the Buffalo area to offshore near LI at 0z Monday. Maybe would be worth 1-2" for the area after most of the precip falls as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 F***. This. Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Intiguing Storm. If we could nudge the storm a bit more to the east... 0Z 12/09/2010 Euro Ensembles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 F***. This. Storm. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 6Z GFS is a little weird. Big shift toward the Lakes Cutter idea of the Euro. But with a weaker storm, it leaves some energy down south and doesn't drag (huge) amounts of warm air northward with it. Looks like an anafront situation where we get some snow BEHIND the cold front as the energy is transferred from the Buffalo area to offshore near LI at 0z Monday. Maybe would be worth 1-2" for the area after most of the precip falls as rain. I'm trying to write a CWG piece on the storm now, I'm having a tough call as anafront situations are not that common around here but sometimes occur. It's always a tough as the low level cold advection fights the differential vorticity advection for supremacy. I guess with such a strong anomalous trough, there is the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm trying to write a CWG piece on the storm now, I'm having a tough call as anafront situations are not that common around here but sometimes occur. It's always a tough as the low level cold advection fights the differential vorticity advection for supremacy. I guess with such a strong anomalous trough, there is the potential. Wow, I'd definitely omit that part from the CWG piece. Can't you just say, "the warm, moist air is flowing in towards and along the advancing cold air...this allows the moisture to get lifted above the advancing, dense, cold air...rain might end as a bit of snow" just playing around... Edit, if the 12Z GFS is a sign of things to come you're not going to have to worry about it. With the primary staying that dominant, rather the secondary being that absent, it's just not gonna matter. Down sloping will take care of any moisture we'd need to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 looks like we're toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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