phil882 Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Yep, Philippe is quickly running out of favorable conditions. Shear should start to increase significantly tomorrow and the fact that the system has struggled so far means it's chances for hurricane intensity are dwindling fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 I cannot remember a season with more just completely forgettable storms. Except for Don and Irene, I literally can't remember even the basic details of any of the rest of them. (And Don was memorable only for its spectacular demise.) It's just a blur of craptastic lameness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 What just happened? What's the band evident on the satellite that rockets west? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 What just happened? What's the band evident on the satellite that rockets west? http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html arc clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 I cannot remember a season with more just completely forgettable storms. Except for Don and Irene, I literally can't remember even the basic details of any of the rest of them. (And Don was memorable only for its spectacular demise.) It's just a blur of craptastic lameness. You're too young to remember, but my freshman year in college, 1987 (the second of a two-year warm ENSO phase), had equally craptacular storms, only there were fewer of them. Of course, now that I think of it, I guess having MORE craptacular storms would be more lame than having fewer. Sorta like having 16 teeth pulled without any anesthetic rather than 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Philippe actually has a window to reorganize over the next 24-48 hours. The models have done horrible with the track of Philippe so far and its actually much further south and west than forecasted several days ago. Thus as the shear decreases briefly in the next 24 hours, we should see Philippe recover into a moderate to strong tropical storm (60-65mph is my guess but this could be conservative). The reasons why the models are preforming horrible with Philippe is directly related to how poorly they handled Ophelia. Ophelia is now far more likely to become a hurricane over the next few days than what was the expectation a few days ago, which will help to pump the subtropical ridge across the tropical Atlantic. This ridge will actually steer Philippe to the west for most of the next 5 days. As amusing as this sounds, Philippe now has a chance to make it further west than Ophelia did in the next week. However beyond 48 hours, the shear is expected to substantially increase mainly due to the strong subtropical ridge combined with Ophelia's outflow. If Philippe can get strong enough over the next couple of days, it might set the stage for an interesting battle as the storm will be moving westward in tandem with the upper level flow which will be northeasterly at this time.. A stronger Philippe might be able to fight the shear with a stronger outflow regime (per what the GFS is suggesting), while if Philippe does not take advantage of the next few days, the north-easterly shear might deal a fatal blow. All I know is that the next few days from a forecasting perspective (not a landfalling perspective Josh ) is far more interesting that what the NHC is currently depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 You're too young to remember, but my freshman year in college, 1987 (the second of a two-year warm ENSO phase), had equally craptacular storms, only there were fewer of them. Of course, now that I think of it, I guess having MORE craptacular storms would be more lame than having fewer. Sorta like having 16 teeth pulled without any anesthetic rather than 7. I agree that more craptastic storms is worse than fewer-- because just the sheer quantity of junk just rubs it in constantly. Each time a cyclone forms, there's that initial tease-- followed by another letdown. In years like 1982 or 1983, there were few letdowns because there was so little going on. (Alicia was cool.) P.S. I think we must be close to the same age, as I started college in the fall of 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Visible suggests that the LLC has redeveloped north since this morning, and the likely center is probably north of the previous advisory location, with little signs of a low level swirl south of the convection, inflow going into the convective complex, and the greatly improved appearance. It is also likely stronger than 40kt as well, as while low resolution, the most recent microwave pass suggests an eye is developing, and there are hints of this on the visible as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Thanks again, Dan for the information; it looks like one of the biggest intra-advisory adjustments we've seen in a while coming up at 5. Not that it matters much out there. Visible suggests that the LLC has redeveloped north since this morning, and the likely center is probably north of the previous advisory location, with little signs of a low level swirl south of the convection, inflow going into the convective complex, and the greatly improved appearance. It is also likely stronger than 40kt as well, as while low resolution, the most recent microwave pass suggests an eye is developing, and there are hints of this on the visible as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Higher resolution microwave is supportive of a developing eye feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 I agree that more craptastic storms is worse than fewer-- because just the sheer quantity of junk just rubs it in constantly. Each time a cyclone forms, there's that initial tease-- followed by another letdown. In years like 1982 or 1983, there were few letdowns because there was so little going on. (Alicia was cool.) P.S. I think we must be close to the same age, as I started college in the fall of 1988. Thought you were younger. Oh, and I waited 6 years between HS and college, so I'm a little closer to 50 than you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Thought you were younger. Oh, and I waited 6 years between HS and college, so I'm a little closer to 50 than you are. Ah, OK. I'm 41, although I apparently have young "vibe"-- as people often mistake me for younger. Sorry to go OT. Philippe sucks. There-- that's on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Ah, OK. I'm 41, although I apparently have young "vibe"-- as people often mistake me for younger. Sorry to go OT. FAIL-ippe sucks. There-- that's on topic. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Interestingly, for as far north/east as Philippe is, it can't be completely ruled out yet that he could make it to the US. There's a brief period around day 5-6 where there could be some decent strengthening... however, if it continued westward from there (instead of being picked up by the trough to the NE), it would encounter strong westerly shear as it neared the US. While that would help to continue steering it westward with the low-level flow, it would be weakening substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 FWIW....not much at all.....the 18Z Fri gfs hits New England on 10/12 with Philippe. This is the 1st run showing a CONUS hit. OMG, JB is going to go crazy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Man, the globals keep insisting on keeping FAIL-lippe a coherent TC after getting a 48+ hour beatdown with about 40-50 knots of northerly shear starting tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Surprisingly strong for has it has looked, 5pm advisory gave it a conservative 55kt intensity from an earlier ASCAT pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Nearly a hurricane, up to 60kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Don't count me out yet guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Can you guys dis this storm a little more... It worked for Ophelia, and it also appears to be helping Philippe as well. If this thing can pull off hurricane intensity after the shear it's been through, that's up there with Lisa (2004) on the resiliency scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Can you guys dis this storm a little more... It worked for Ophelia, and it also appears to be helping Philippe as well. If this thing can pull off hurricane intensity after the shear it's been through, that's up there with Lisa (2004) on the resiliency scale. Despite this persistence, the NHC is being stubborn and refusing to predict she will become a hurricane. I think they will be proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Despite this persistence, the NHC is being stubborn and refusing to predict she will become a hurricane. I think they will be proven wrong. This likely all relates back to how poorly the models forecast Ophelia... the mid and upper level anticyclone that is blanketing Philippe has proven to be stronger thanks to the diabatic influence of Ophelia's outflow. Since Philippe has remained vertically deep in nature, its now moving further south than forecast, which is reducing the overall shear over the system since it is now moving in the same direction as the mid-upper level flow. Thus the storm has actually improved in organization today, and I'd say it has an outside shot to become a hurricane in the next 24-48 hours as the ridge holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 This likely all relates back to how poorly the models forecast Ophelia... the mid and upper level anticyclone that is blanketing Philippe has proven to be stronger thanks to the diabatic influence of Ophelia's outflow. Since Philippe has remained vertically deep in nature, its now moving further south than forecast, which is reducing the overall shear over the system since it is now moving in the same direction as the mid-upper level flow. Thus the storm has actually improved in organization today, and I'd say it has an outside shot to become a hurricane in the next 24-48 hours as the ridge holds. Yep, agree, that's exactly what I said yesterday, and I think there's a better than 50% chance now of becoming a hurricane in the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Yep, agree, that's exactly what I said yesterday, and I think there's a better than 50% chance now of becoming a hurricane in the next 36 hours. Latest microwave imagery showing clear signs of at least a mid-level eye again. There are also hints of a warm spot on IR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Latest microwave imagery showing clear signs of at least a mid-level eye again. There are also hints of a warm post on IR as well. I would even say that shear is not it's main hindrance, but upper level convergence associated to the very strong upper level ridge to it's NNW. IR is definitely showing half an eye, but the meager convection on it's west half is slowing intensification. Oh, and it's definitely south of 24N now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Looks like we have another hurricane if it can hold it's own until 11am as the 12z SHIPS was initialized with 65kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Looks like we have another hurricane if it can hold it's own until 11am as the 12z SHIPS was initialized with 65kt. Screw it....might as well go for MH at this point....at least all the people who put 2 down for Sept. MH can boost their raw scores.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Philippe is now a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Philippe is now a hurricane Well that helps my September numbers but hurts my seasonal..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 And just after the advisory came out, the next MW is rather suggestive. It still has around 6-10 hours of intensification window and we might see an eye trying to popup soon. Not calling for a major, but 85 kts seem possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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