cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Current Model Tracks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 Yawn. Another Fish storm most likely. It has been a boring season for us storm trackers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 We may get a hurricane out of it, the SHIPs has been somewhat enthusiastic with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 My analysis: Late-season fish. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 My analysis: Late-season fish. Next! Perfect Analysis, just tell the Hurricane Center and we will be good to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Perfect Analysis, just tell the Hurricane Center and we will be good to go! LOL alrighty then...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 I have to apologize to everyone for lowering the discussion. I guess I'm just feeling a little frustrated that it's 23 Sep and we're stuck talking about crap like this. I'm sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 I have to apologize to everyone for lowering the discussion. I guess I'm just feeling a little frustrated that it's 23 Sep and we're stuck talking about crap like this. I'm sorry. We all feel your pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 I have to apologize to everyone for lowering the discussion. I guess I'm just feeling a little frustrated that it's 23 Sep and we're stuck talking about crap like this. I'm sorry. Meh your right though pretty much anything thats fishes unless its a Cat 3-5 with a spectacular sat presentation is a waste of time to track for most of us, I mean after awhile you just get numb to the lameness of the storms this year personally I am pretty much over it at this point, although I would love for a homegrown out of the GOM or Bahamas to spice things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Meh your right though pretty much anything thats fishes unless its a Cat 3-5 with a spectacular sat presentation is a waste of time to track for most of us, I mean after awhile you just get numb to the lameness of the storms this year personally I am pretty much over it at this point, although I would love for a homegrown out of the GOM or Bahamas to spice things up. Bingo. I just feel numb. And then you look at the crazy hawtness on the EPAC side, and it's like, WTF?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 Meh your right though pretty much anything thats fishes unless its a Cat 3-5 with a spectacular sat presentation is a waste of time to track for most of us, I mean after awhile you just get numb to the lameness of the storms this year personally I am pretty much over it at this point, although I would love for a homegrown out of the GOM or Bahamas to spice things up. There is a yellow circle in the Bahamas. Any Hope? Probably will go northeast and be another fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Just looking at the system currently, it has about 24-48 hours of favorable conditions. It already looks pretty well organized at this point, and its developing a nice curved coiled shape. I think we should see at least steady development over the next 1-2 days into a strong tropical storm, or even minimal hurricane before the shear starts to cause a major impact on its environment. At this rate, we will probably see at least a TD by 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Visible/IR Mosaic of system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 Just looking at the system currently, it has about 24-48 hours of favorable conditions. It already looks pretty well organized at this point, and its developing a nice curved coiled shape. I think we should see at least steady development over the next 1-2 days into a strong tropical storm, or even minimal hurricane before the shear starts to cause a major impact on its environment. At this rate, we will probably see at least a TD by 5am. Yes, looks very good, almost better than Ophelia! I agree that we should see a depression at 5am but definitely should be by 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 It is now a tropical depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 It is now a tropical depression. Maybe a tropical storm by later today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Maybe a tropical storm by later today! and it still could be labeled 90L in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 and it still could be labeled 90L in this thread Its not like it will be either a land thread or a spectacular satellite treat. And running your own personal tropical weather site is hard work. Well, actually it doesn't look bad on satellite. But 91L has the benefit of closeness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 Its not like it will be either a land thread or a spectacular satellite treat. And running your own personal tropical weather site is hard work. Well, actually it doesn't look bad on satellite. But 91L has the benefit of closeness. Not too hard, you just have to have a few minutes each day to update it. Why do you say running a site is hard work? Also can someone rename this to TD 17 or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Not too hard, you just have to have a few minutes each day to update it. Why do you say running a site is hard work? Also can someone rename this to TD 17 or something? You can edit your first post and update the thread title... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 Here are the 8am tracks for 17... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 Looks like this will be the only interesting area in the Atlantic, it has a chance to make it big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Not too hard, you just have to have a few minutes each day to update it. Why do you say running a site is hard work? Also can someone rename this to TD 17 or something? It appears you're the one who started this thread, thus you're the one who should edit the title. Click edit on your original post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Also can someone rename this to TD 17 or something? Title is updated. As others have mentioned you can do it yourself in the first post of the thread by hitting the edit button and using the 'full editor' button for the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Looks like we should have a storm at 5, they intialized the SHIPS with 35kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Looks like we should have a storm at 5, they intialized the SHIPS with 35kt Phil882 is not gonna be happy about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgwx Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 Thanks for the title update. One of the most impressive satellite presentations of a storm we have seen this year in the Atlantic basin... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48-72 HOURS...A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W LONGITUDE AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PHILIPPE SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN IS EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST AND THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE THE GREATEST. BY 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT...WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48-72 HOURS...AND THEN LEVEL OFF SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE PHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 11.2N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 11.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 12.5N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 13.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 14.8N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 22.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Phil882 is not gonna be happy about that. C'est la vie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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