Deck Pic Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 http://fortysouthwx.com/index.php?/topic/2255-ka-winter-outlook-2011-12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 http://fortysouthwx....utlook-2011-12/ Based on his comments for February and March, looks like snowfall could go higher than that, as it could still snow in March given what he is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Based on his comments for February and March, looks like snowfall could go higher than that, as it could still snow in March given what he is forecasting. snow is for the entire season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 snow is for the entire season Ok. For some reason, I thought he only did met winter snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 KA needs a comeback....a few rough years especially in the snow prediction after several good ones....odd that he is calling for a cold February and most others are going warm/hot in Feb....as always time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Why warm for Dec/Cold for feb? 2006-2007 isnt a good match imo, El Nino/+QBO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I remember when everyone actually cared about KA's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I remember when everyone actually cared about KA's forecast. I can't remember anyone caring about anything you post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I believe KA is going to hit this winter dead on...20 inches for DCA may be somewhat high...but the further WEST you go much better...IAD should see 30+ this winter, due to less mixing events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Well, seems like we will have to judge after winter. Analog years seem weird-- 66-67 is coming off the Nino from 65-66--, along with the afore mentioned issues from 06-07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I'm a little more bullish than last year but as Matt noted, for every year we get over 20 inches, it seems like we have 6 years with snowfall amounts below average so he's bucking the odds. If you look at the easterly qbo years with a cold enso....the ones HM posted. Only 1962-1963 got over 16 inches (21.4), 5 others had 12-15 and 3 had 5 to 7. That argues to me that somewhere in the 12-15 inch range is the most likely range unless something changes but snow amounts are such a crap shoot, he could be right. It only takes one really good storm and one modest one to get to his totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I believe KA is going to hit this winter dead on...20 inches for DCA may be somewhat high...but the further WEST you go much better...IAD should see 30+ this winter, due to less mixing events. wtf you just said "misery awaits" a few days ago, you're a total dumbass, or just trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I disagree thinking this winter will be colder and front loaded with december being quite cold. And february being quite warm. His analogues are very odd as well as some mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I can't remember anyone caring that i am about to get 5 posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 you go east QBO! if I had to do a forecast, it would look like KA's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Why warm for Dec/Cold for feb? 2006-2007 isnt a good match imo, El Nino/+QBO Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I remember when everyone actually cared about KA's forecast. His 2009-2010 torch/low snow forecast really hurt him IMHO. But his overall track record is still decent. I can't remember what he went for last year. (edit: just saw in the link he missed way too high on snow last year but his temp forecast was very good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 I believe KA is going to hit this winter dead on...20 inches for DCA may be somewhat high...but the further WEST you go much better...IAD should see 30+ this winter, due to less mixing events. and this is based upon what? I'm all for it, but I'd like to see some reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 His 2009-2010 torch/low snow forecast really hurt him IMHO. But his overall track record is still decent. I can't remember what he went for last year. (edit: just saw in the link he missed way too high on snow last year but his temp forecast was very good) Snow could have easily hit his forecast last year. We were literally inches away from having a steller snow season but for whatever reason it just wasn't meant to be here. Man, it was painful watching areas south and north cash in while we watched flurries. Good for the VA tidewater though. They don't get good winters very often at all. I'm not sure I agree with Dec being above normal. If anything, I'm thinking Dec is the most likely month to be below normal this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 not many la nina winters with the coldest month in February....there aren't many cold la nina February's...January is colder on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Feb -March 47 had 3 8 inch snowfall from late Feb to late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 not many la nina winters with the coldest month in February....there aren't many cold la nina February's...January is colder on average... Not to throw off on your, or anyone else's for that matter, work, but I think too much is made of some of the temp analogs. One or two degrees or even three isn't necessarily an indicator of the winter. It could easily be well below normal and snowfall be below right along with it. I could see it easily going the other way as well. My worry is precip. I'd love to see some precip analog maps for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 ever since his disaster 9-10...calling for a hot snoweless winter and we get the best winter in DC history...i dont care much anymore about this forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 and this is based upon what? I'm all for it, but I'd like to see some reasons. His Magic 8 Ball. No, seriously. That was his reasoning in the other winter thread. SNO has no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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