Joplin, Missouri Tornado Assessment - recommendations

[BeauDodson]

Sorry if posted already - felt this deserves a thread of its own. Lot of time and effort went into the assessment.

Please send these links to your local meteorologists/media/emergency management friends - other.

This is a great writeup concerning the Joplin, Missouri tornado event. There are a number of recommendations made by the assessment team. It takes a bit of time to read - but well worth the time and effort.

The summary can be viewed here

http://www.noaanews....920_joplin.html

The actual assessment is in PDF format

http://www.weather.g...lin_tornado.pdf

[uofmiami]

Was posted by JoMo in the Joplin Thread 2 days ago, fyi:

http://www.americanw...post__p__977920

[BeauDodson]

Was posted by JoMo in the Joplin Thread 2 days ago, fyi:

http://www.americanw...post__p__977920

Thought maybe it was over there but it really deserves its own thread. Hopefully the tornado prone crowd will pass it around.

[JoMo]

What are your thoughts about it, Beau?

[BeauDodson]

What are your thoughts about it, Beau?

For us - the most important finding was what we probably already suspected and knew - that outdoor sirens can be confusing and that the public feels as if they are over warned.

It is concerning that people interviewed said that they hear the sirens all of the time and tend to ignore them. I am one of the people who has to decide whether to blow the sirens for McCracken County (Paducah, KY). It is not a responsibility that I take lightly and I hate to blow them. We probably had to blow them at least 5 times this year - all for tornado warnings. I am not counting the times we had to blow them more than once during a tornado warning. We had one confirmed tornado this year while the sirens were being sounded. The rest of the time we had thunderstorms with high winds - some wind damage (one event had quite a bit of wind damage).

Our policy is to blow the outdoor sirens if the NWS issues a tornado warning for part of the county. However, we do not automatically blow them (immediately) when the warning is issued. We first discuss the risk - discuss what radar is showing. If the storm is further away from the county then we might wait until the storm is closer to the county or about to move into the county. There was only one time that I requested the sirens not to be blown during a tornado warning (during 2011) - this was because I felt the threat was over for McCracken County and had pushed east. Which ended up being correct.

We do not sound the sirens for high winds or severe thunderstorms. However, if I felt that the threat for widespread damaging winds (a significant derecho) was high then I would probably recommend blowing them - especially if we had some big outdoor events. Something like the Super Derecho a few years ago that hit southern IL and caused winds over 100 mph - is a great case study for outdoor sirens. During that event I believe the NWS actually requested siren activation (even though they were issuing severe thunderstorm warnings).

Personally I wish the outdoor siren system was reserved for extreme events - confirmed tornadoes - confirmed extreme wind events. I feel that outdoor sirens are sounded too many times.

I am a big advocate for NOAA Weather Radios and other sources for information - away from sirens. I brought this (below) to our local NBC station and it has been fairly successful - lot of people are using it (including myself - family). One more tool in the severe weather toolbox.

http://www.wpsdlocal6.com/home/related/WeatherCall-Keeping-you-safe-wherever-you-are-116769469.html

I try to educate people that the outdoor siren system is mainly for people outdoors (obvious? - apparently not). It is not the "tornado warning system" that the public should rely on for their warning to take shelter. People should use local media - NOAA Weather Radio - other information for their situational awareness.

The Joplin findings mimic the Super Tuesday outbreak findings. People do not take shelter just because a tornado warning has been issued. They require additional information before making the decision to shelter in place. That might mean they turn on the television - get a phone call from a friend - see the sky is darkening - sense that something is wrong - or other.

The above comes as no surprise. Most of us on this forum do the same. I have never automatically taken shelter because a warning has been issued. Maybe that is because I live in an area that has a lot of warnings - lot of severe weather. You, however, might feel differently - after what happened. Maybe you will automatically take shelter if you hear the sirens?

The assessment was well worth reading - I printed it out - will go through it again another time or two and make some notes. The biggest challenge all of us have in dealing with the public and the weather is how to convey the message properly. You don't want to scare people - you don't want to overreact to a severe weather threat - you want people to believe you when you say "take shelter now" or "today could bring significant severe weather"

Perception trumps reality when it comes to weather. If people perceive that they are being over warned then we should listen to the public and try and figure out a better way to convey the threat level.

I wish the NWS would stop issuing warnings for low end wind events. I wish they would issue severe thunderstorm warnings for 70 or 80 mph winds vs the 58 mph winds. We have 58 mph winds here on a normal windy day.

I also agree that there are too many tornado warnings being issued. Issuing a tornado warning for every possible brief spin-up is not useful or helpful imo. Obviously there are arguments on both sides of the aisle when it comes to this topic.

What are your thoughts on the assessment? What are your thoughts from talking with local residents?

Hope you are well - I know it has been rough on you and I feel your pain.

[HurricaneJosh]

Sort of off topic, but where is the final, definitive meteorological/damage survey of the event, and did they ever settle on a single max-wind value?

[BeauDodson]

Sort of off topic, but where is the final, definitive meteorological/damage survey of the event, and did they ever settle on a single max-wind value?

This is all I see on their site

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_summary

[tornadotony]

Sort of off topic, but where is the final, definitive meteorological/damage survey of the event, and did they ever settle on a single max-wind value?

That is something that might be revealed with Storm Data's release.

[AtticaFanatica]

did they ever settle on a single max-wind value?

hopefully not

[JoMo]

This is what I posted on June 7th in the Joplin thread:

I think some things that the NWS assessment is going to find in no particular order:

1. They will find that the area suffers from 'warning fatigue'. We have a lot of tornado warnings where nothing happens. This makes people complacent. Several people I have talked to just thought it was the normal run-of-the-mill tornado warning where you go to your closet and sit until the storm passes.

2. People don't know what the sirens mean. They used to be for tornadoes only, but after we had high winds several years ago, they now set them off for 75 MPH winds or higher expected. They typically sound them for a short time, then stop sounding them. People don't know what it means when they stop sounding.... they think it means the storm or threat is over. It also probably doesn't help that every Monday at 10 AM in the Spring they were tested if the weather was nice. This probably caused people to get used to the sound.

3. The tornado became rain wrapped very quickly (it wasn't in my area) and was hard to see. It also had a 'rolling thunder' sound until it was practically on top of you. It had been rolling thunder off and on for a couple of hours due to the storms in the area. It took me a few seconds to realize that it wasn't rolling thunder. Seeing the couplet on radar and the power flickers were my only other visual cues since I did not have enough time to look outside.

4. It formed just west of Joplin, this did not give many adequate time to hear there was a tornado on the ground. We rely on spotter reports west of town in the counties to our west and southwest. If there is a tornado on the ground to the west or southwest, people take it seriously. You could also see the confusion on the local news channels about what was actually going on.

5. Lack of basements or people not using their basements. A lot of houses do not have basements around here due to the high water table and rocky soil. My neighbor has a basement and his sump pump runs 24/7 even when it doesn't rain. My ex-gf's house had a crawl space but they took shelter in an interior bathroom because they did not think anything would happen. I've talked to others that did the same thing.

6. The complex storm situation with multiple areas of rotation and the speed of how quickly the tornado developed and the confusion stemming from that. There were three areas of rotation, one large one with the parent T-storm well to the north of Joplin, another that quickly developed north of Joplin near Carl Junction, that may have hit the northern part of Joplin or it may have went between Joplin and CJ. And then the third one that wasn't impressive until the 5:24-5:25 radar update. It became apparent at the 5:29 update that this was probably producing at least funnel clouds. By 5:39 the tornado was on the ground just south of me. The NWS had Joplin covered in two tornado warnings I believe. One for the rotation near Carl Junction and one that was issued a little bit later for the southern part of Joplin that eventually produced the tornado. I think there was some confusion about where the tornado actually was due to the SVS that was issued that stated a tornado was spotted 6 miles NE of Galena and was moving NE when in fact the tornado was on the ground SE of Galena. That put an entirely different area in the tornado path. I believe it was corrected at 5:42.

[JoMo]

For us - the most important finding was what we probably already suspected and knew - that outdoor sirens can be confusing and that the public feels as if they are over warned.

It is concerning that people interviewed said that they hear the sirens all of the time and tend to ignore them. I am one of the people who has to decide whether to blow the sirens for McCracken County (Paducah, KY). It is not a responsibility that I take lightly and I hate to blow them. We probably had to blow them at least 5 times this year - all for tornado warnings. I am not counting the times we had to blow them more than once during a tornado warning. We had one confirmed tornado this year while the sirens were being sounded. The rest of the time we had thunderstorms with high winds - some wind damage (one event had quite a bit of wind damage).

Our policy is to blow the outdoor sirens if the NWS issues a tornado warning for part of the county. However, we do not automatically blow them (immediately) when the warning is issued. We first discuss the risk - discuss what radar is showing. If the storm is further away from the county then we might wait until the storm is closer to the county or about to move into the county. There was only one time that I requested the sirens not to be blown during a tornado warning (during 2011) - this was because I felt the threat was over for McCracken County and had pushed east. Which ended up being correct.

We do not sound the sirens for high winds or severe thunderstorms. However, if I felt that the threat for widespread damaging winds (a significant derecho) was high then I would probably recommend blowing them - especially if we had some big outdoor events. Something like the Super Derecho a few years ago that hit southern IL and caused winds over 100 mph - is a great case study for outdoor sirens. During that event I believe the NWS actually requested siren activation (even though they were issuing severe thunderstorm warnings).

Personally I wish the outdoor siren system was reserved for extreme events - confirmed tornadoes - confirmed extreme wind events. I feel that outdoor sirens are sounded too many times.

I am a big advocate for NOAA Weather Radios and other sources for information - away from sirens. I brought this (below) to our local NBC station and it has been fairly successful - lot of people are using it (including myself - family). One more tool in the severe weather toolbox.

http://www.wpsdlocal...-116769469.html

I try to educate people that the outdoor siren system is mainly for people outdoors (obvious? - apparently not). It is not the "tornado warning system" that the public should rely on for their warning to take shelter. People should use local media - NOAA Weather Radio - other information for their situational awareness.

The Joplin findings mimic the Super Tuesday outbreak findings. People do not take shelter just because a tornado warning has been issued. They require additional information before making the decision to shelter in place. That might mean they turn on the television - get a phone call from a friend - see the sky is darkening - sense that something is wrong - or other.

The above comes as no surprise. Most of us on this forum do the same. I have never automatically taken shelter because a warning has been issued. Maybe that is because I live in an area that has a lot of warnings - lot of severe weather. You, however, might feel differently - after what happened. Maybe you will automatically take shelter if you hear the sirens?

The assessment was well worth reading - I printed it out - will go through it again another time or two and make some notes. The biggest challenge all of us have in dealing with the public and the weather is how to convey the message properly. You don't want to scare people - you don't want to overreact to a severe weather threat - you want people to believe you when you say "take shelter now" or "today could bring significant severe weather"

Perception trumps reality when it comes to weather. If people perceive that they are being over warned then we should listen to the public and try and figure out a better way to convey the threat level.

I wish the NWS would stop issuing warnings for low end wind events. I wish they would issue severe thunderstorm warnings for 70 or 80 mph winds vs the 58 mph winds. We have 58 mph winds here on a normal windy day.

I also agree that there are too many tornado warnings being issued. Issuing a tornado warning for every possible brief spin-up is not useful or helpful imo. Obviously there are arguments on both sides of the aisle when it comes to this topic.

What are your thoughts on the assessment? What are your thoughts from talking with local residents?

Hope you are well - I know it has been rough on you and I feel your pain.

Yes, there wasn't much mentioned that wasn't already known or suspected. It's actually pretty amazing there weren't more deaths looking back at it now. There was about 6-7 miles through the city where everything looked like it had been just grinded up. The entire area looked like a landfill with occasional pieces of houses still standing every few blocks.

I don't really remember the sirens sounding for severe t-storms in Joplin. If they did before May 22nd then it was very few and far between as we typically get the overnight MCS remains and winds of 60 MPH tops. I know other portions of Jasper county (where most of Joplin is) have been under tornado warnings and they haven't sounded the sirens in Joplin. They are only sounded if Joplin itself is threatened or in a polygon. I don't recall if the sirens were sounded on May 12th 2011 when a tornado warning was issued west and NW of Joplin for rotation in a storm that produced at most a couple of funnel clouds according to a local TV met. http://www.facebook....188112207898383 (i did personally witness rapid elevated rotation but I could tell this storm wasn't near the surface unlike the one just 10 days later)

One really bad thing is the testing of sirens every Monday at 10 AM. I think a lot of the people saying they hear the sirens 'all the time' are actually thinking about that because once you hear them at least once a week, you get desensitized to them. I actually haven't noticed the last couple of siren testings on Monday morning but other people have so I guess I must tune them out or was busy or something.

There was a lot of confusion on exactly where the tornado was due to the multiple areas of rotation. A radio station made an incorrect report that there was a tornado at 7th and Rangeline. This caused a man and his children who were headed home and who would go through that area to head back to the south and drive right into the path of the tornado at 20th and Rangeline. They were killed while seeking shelter at Home Depot.

Doug Heady (Joplinmet) actually has a commercial on TV for WeatherCall, he also uses facebook to convey warnings for mobile users as well. People can be really annoying with IMBY comments or asking if their particular area is going to be affected. People do not know the towns around them or directions so sometimes that becomes confusing.

We haven't really had a severe weather situation where I would take shelter again other than May 25th and I did seek shelter then. However, I realized that with an open floor plan and the interior of the house open that there was basically no protection after looking at the destruction caused by the tornado. I'm getting an above-ground steel tornado shelter that will be installed by the end of the year. I actually talked to a man tonight that wasn't at home when the tornado destroyed his home but he said that he and his family would have taken shelter in a closet that was centrally located. He said that closet was basically blown away but his daughters closet that was next to an exterior wall was left untouched.

As far as the people here.... The assessment itself pissed a lot of people off. They became defensive that 'someone sitting in an office somewhere' criticized them for not taking shelter during the first sounding of the sirens. They didn't understand that the assessment was to find better ways in order to get people to take the warnings seriously and a look at how they can do things differently in order to better serve the public.

So wit that said, I would like to see a couple of things:

A) I would like to see 'Tornado Emergencies' used for confirmed tornadoes. Tornado warnings can still be used for suspected tornadoes/rotation and yes I realize a tornado can develop quickly.

I don't really have a problem with a 3-5 minute siren sounding for a tornado warning that is 20 minutes or so out, but I would like a constant siren when a confirmed tornado is approaching the area.

C) I believe that sirens should not be tested weekly. Maybe they could test them monthly? I also think it would be a good idea to test them a few days before a severe weather event is expected as a sort of early warning that severe storms may arrive in a few days so the public could have a heads up.

D) I would like for radio stations/news media to not give unconfirmed public reports of a tornado without first receiving multiple reports or confirming it with the NWS.

E) All weather radios should be programmable to specific warnings. I don't want Flash flood watches as I don't live in a flood prone area. I only want tornado/severe warnings.

F) I would like to see better uses of mobile technology in order to warn people, but keep the other ways of warning people as well. As stated, people look for multiple warnings or multiple methods of proof before they take shelter.

[jdrenken]

So wit that said, I would like to see a couple of things:

A) I would like to see 'Tornado Emergencies' used for confirmed tornadoes. Tornado warnings can still be used for suspected tornadoes/rotation and yes I realize a tornado can develop quickly.

I don't really have a problem with a 3-5 minute siren sounding for a tornado warning that is 20 minutes or so out, but I would like a constant siren when a confirmed tornado is approaching the area.

C) I believe that sirens should not be tested weekly. Maybe they could test them monthly? I also think it would be a good idea to test them a few days before a severe weather event is expected as a sort of early warning that severe storms may arrive in a few days so the public could have a heads up.

D) I would like for radio stations/news media to not give unconfirmed public reports of a tornado without first receiving multiple reports or confirming it with the NWS.

E) All weather radios should be programmable to specific warnings. I don't want Flash flood watches as I don't live in a flood prone area. I only want tornado/severe warnings.

F) I would like to see better uses of mobile technology in order to warn people, but keep the other ways of warning people as well. As stated, people look for multiple warnings or multiple methods of proof before they take shelter.

A) I agree and disagree. Agree that they need to become standardized for cities. For instance, the Elmwood, IL tornado was dangerously close to Peoria, IL and ILX did issue a tornado emergency for Peoria. Some WFO's issue them, some don't.

B..Agree

C) All of the towns I've lived in test on the first Tuesday of the month and it shocked me to see that some test them every week.

D) Exactly...spotter confirmed only...not public. A while back, Columbia had a nice shelf cloud moving thru and a CPD officer called in a wall cloud. There were no CPD officers at the spotter training held a few months earlier as I was there.

E) Very true

F) Yep...it's not uncommon for people to even flip between the local news outlets for breaking coverage to compare.

[on_wx]

A) I agree and disagree. Agree that they need to become standardized for cities. For instance, the Elmwood, IL tornado was dangerously close to Peoria, IL and ILX did issue a tornado emergency for Peoria. Some WFO's issue them, some don't.

B..Agree

C) All of the towns I've lived in test on the first Tuesday of the month and it shocked me to see that some test them every week.

D) Exactly...spotter confirmed only...not public. A while back, Columbia had a nice shelf cloud moving thru and a CPD officer called in a wall cloud. There were no CPD officers at the spotter training held a few months earlier as I was there.

E) Very true

F) Yep...it's not uncommon for people to even flip between the local news outlets for breaking coverage to compare.

Using Merrill, Wisconsin siren activation practices of alert for tornado warning and attack for confirmed tornado...

This siren is what should be standard for a non-confirmed tornado... the alert siren tone.

This is what siren should be standard for a confirmed tornado via spotters, public, or NWS... the attack tone. (sorry I don't know of another video of this unless you lot know one)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xie6LzzDwGQ

[on_wx]

Here is a good other vid of the attack tone in Merrill 0:42 seconds

Confirmed tornado siren tone

[*IndyMeso*]

Sorry if posted already - felt this deserves a thread of its own. Lot of time and effort went into the assessment.

Please send these links to your local meteorologists/media/emergency management friends - other.

This is a great writeup concerning the Joplin, Missouri tornado event. There are a number of recommendations made by the assessment team. It takes a bit of time to read - but well worth the time and effort.

The summary can be viewed here

http://www.noaanews....920_joplin.html

The actual assessment is in PDF format

http://www.weather.g...lin_tornado.pdf

Beau, JoMo and I had a great conversation in the other thread about some of the issues you discussed as well. I attended the Integrated Warning Team Workshop a couple weeks back in Indy and we discussed some of these issues about complacency with regards to the sirens. I believe there was also a representative from Paducah that attended. Probably one of the biggest things I took away from the workshop and this assessment was that people had taken notice and took the siren seriously when a second siren was sounded. It made people pay attention and seek to find more information. JoMo and I talked about how if the sirens were sounded constantly if a confirmed tornado is on the ground this might make people again take notice. I do think it was a bold and smart move on the emergency manager's part to sound the siren a second time as he probably saved lives.

Another thing that we discussed and are looking to expand on is to find a way to bring more information to people quicker. I believe, at this point, that sirens should only be one of many sources when it comes to warning people of dangerous weather. It was stated by one of the broadcast meteorologists that they see a large growth in number of viewers when a tornado warning may be issued for a certain area or county. So, that obviously backs up the statement that when people hear the sirens, then go to the TV or maybe the radio for more information before seeking shelter immediately. Of course broadcasting information will always be there but there are a lot of concerns with that as well. What if storms had blown through an area before and the power is out? People at this point cannot rely on the television solely for the most up to date information. Now, everyone can say they need weather radios but I am not sure everyone is aware of what weather radios can do or some just dont purchase them. I know here in Indiana there is now a law that was passed after the Evansville Tornado that all new mobile homes must be equipped with a weather radio. But again, you have to believe that people are going to keep them on or change the batteries, ect.

What do you feel is the next step from this point forward? I would love to get some feedback from people on this issue and bring it back to the workshop. We hope to meet every year to followup on situations so any ideas would be much appreciated.

[HurricaneJosh]

hopefully not

Why not?

I think all knowledgeable observers understand that these are just estimates and will never be 100% accurate. But I don't see how you can compare and contrast different events if one is estimated at "205 mph" and the other is "over 200 mph". For statistical analyses, comparisons, and so on, I feel there should be a single, best-estimate value for the max wind in each event-- or at least some standardization to how intensity is expressed.

That's what we do in the tropical arena and it's useful. When the NHC decided in reanalysis that the Galveston Hurricane had winds of 120 kt, no one is under any delusion that that is a perfectly accurate, correct value. That 120 kt simply represents an average of various estimates (weighing a variety of factors) or a midpoint in the range of possible values for that event. Even taking into account these limitations, at the end of the day it's still good to have a single value to work with.

Given this, I find the lack of an official max estimate for the Joplin tornado a bit troubling.

[JoMo]

Beau, JoMo and I had a great conversation in the other thread about some of the issues you discussed as well. I attended the Integrated Warning Team Workshop a couple weeks back in Indy and we discussed some of these issues about complacency with regards to the sirens. I believe there was also a representative from Paducah that attended. Probably one of the biggest things I took away from the workshop and this assessment was that people had taken notice and took the siren seriously when a second siren was sounded. It made people pay attention and seek to find more information. JoMo and I talked about how if the sirens were sounded constantly if a confirmed tornado is on the ground this might make people again take notice. I do think it was a bold and smart move on the emergency manager's part to sound the siren a second time as he probably saved lives.

It was a good move, however, I wish they would have kept them running the entire time. This makes the most sense to me. As it stood, if they ran them for 3 minutes from 5:38 to 5:41, the tornado was about halfway through the city at this time and located around Joplin High School when the sirens stopped sounding.

I have heard people say they did not hear the sirens right before the tornado. These people were typically located east of where the sirens stopped, so they would not have heard the sirens as the tornado arrived because the sirens stopped before the tornado arrived. They provide video evidence that the sirens weren't sounding when the tornado hit. I am quick to point out that the sirens did indeed sound, they had just stopped before the tornado had reached their location.

[AtticaFanatica]

Why not?

I think all knowledgeable observers understand that these are just estimates and will never be 100% accurate. But I don't see how you can compare and contrast different events if one is estimated at "205 mph" and the other is "over 200 mph". For statistical analyses, comparisons, and so on, I feel there should be a single, best-estimate value for the max wind in each event-- or at least some standardization to how intensity is expressed.

That's what we do in the tropical arena and it's useful. When the NHC decided in reanalysis that the Galveston Hurricane had winds of 120 kt, no one is under any delusion that that is a perfectly accurate, correct value. That 120 kt simply represents an average of various estimates (weighing a variety of factors) or a midpoint in the range of possible values for that event. Even taking into account these limitations, at the end of the day it's still good to have a single value to work with.

Given this, I find the lack of an official max estimate for the Joplin tornado a bit troubling.

The error bars of the estimate obliterate any possible applicability. Sometimes, you just can't compare things accurately.

[HurricaneJosh]

The error bars of the estimate obliterate any possible applicability. Sometimes, you just can't compare things accurately.

How big are those error bars? And if they're so big, why do most events get an estimate to the nearest 5 mph? Do you disagree with that practice?

I know you're really knowledgeable in this area, so these are real questions-- not challenges.

[AtticaFanatica]

How big are those error bars? And if they're so big, why do most events get an estimate to the nearest 5 mph? Do you disagree with that practice?

I know you're really knowledgeable in this area, so these are real questions-- not challenges.

My personal beliefs, based partially on this ongoing work, is that the error bars are probably a large fraction of an EF scale. The work I just linked is the first real attempt to verify surveys with scientific wind measurements. As you can see, the results are shockingly poor. In fact, I would advocate changing from 6 EF categories to 3: weak, moderate, severe.

I do not agree with estimating wind measurements to the nearest 5 mph from surveys alone, I do not believe there is evidence that surveys provide that type of precision.

[JoMo]

How big are those error bars? And if they're so big, why do most events get an estimate to the nearest 5 mph? Do you disagree with that practice?

I know you're really knowledgeable in this area, so these are real questions-- not challenges.

I can't answer exactly but the construction of many Joplin houses and businesses varied wildly. You had houses and buildings that were constructed in the 1900-1930 range, then you had houses that were constructed in the 1960's, then you had houses that were constructed less than 10 years ago. Some houses that were really old did fairly well, while some newer houses did poorly. You had three story apartments leveled, and one story older houses that survived. The debris field was incredible since houses were packed so tightly together.

The NIST report may shed some light on the construction methods of some of the places.

The closest I have seen to an actual estimate were the concrete stops at St. Johns being tossed. Those would have put the winds in the 205 MPH range.

[HurricaneJosh]

My personal beliefs, based partially on this ongoing work, is that the error bars are probably a large fraction of an EF scale. The work I just linked is the first real attempt to verify surveys with scientific wind measurements. As you can see, the results are shockingly poor. In fact, I would advocate changing from 6 EF categories to 3: weak, moderate, severe.

I do not agree with estimating wind measurements to the nearest 5 mph from surveys alone, I do not believe there is evidence that surveys provide that type of precision.

Wow-- just wow. Really interesting. I figured the 5 mph increments implied false accuracy, but I didn't think they were that rough. I find your suggestion of a three-level scale interesting.

I think we face some of the same issues with hurricanes-- even with contemporary cyclones under recon surveillance, the best-track values are still just estimates-- but it's definitely not that bad. Unlike tornadoes, tropical cyclones can be classed into one of seven categories (TD, TS, H1-5) with relatively high certainty.

[HurricaneJosh]

I can't answer exactly but the construction of many Joplin houses and businesses varied wildly. You had houses and buildings that were constructed in the 1900-1930 range, then you had houses that were constructed in the 1960's, then you had houses that were constructed less than 10 years ago. Some houses that were really old did fairly well, while some newer houses did poorly. You had three story apartments leveled, and one story older houses that survived. The debris field was incredible since houses were packed so tightly together.

The NIST report may shed some light on the construction methods of some of the places.

The closest I have seen to an actual estimate were the concrete stops at St. Johns being tossed. Those would have put the winds in the 205 MPH range.

Interesting stuff-- thanks. It's a shame that American construction practices (and materials) seem to degrade with time, rather than get better.

[BeauDodson]

E) All weather radios should be programmable to specific warnings. I don't want Flash flood watches as I don't live in a flood prone area. I only want tornado/severe warnings.

Interesting comment. I have brought that subject up with Bruce Thomas from Midland. Honestly - the radios that go off for every single product warning is doing a disservice. IMO I think all weather radios should be able to allow programming products to be enabled or disabled.

I have stopped buying the WR100's and am sticking with WR 300's for give aways and other. They cost more but they are worth it.

[Hoosier]

It's more difficult for me to ignore the siren given that there is one less than 50 yards away. I do agree that people could become desensitized in part due to frequent testing. I know they test them on Saturdays here but I couldn't tell you if it's weekly or bimonthly as I try my best to tune it out.

[BeauDodson]

It was a good move, however, I wish they would have kept them running the entire time. This makes the most sense to me. As it stood, if they ran them for 3 minutes from 5:38 to 5:41, the tornado was about halfway through the city at this time and located around Joplin High School when the sirens stopped sounding.

I have heard people say they did not hear the sirens right before the tornado. These people were typically located east of where the sirens stopped, so they would not have heard the sirens as the tornado arrived because the sirens stopped before the tornado arrived. They provide video evidence that the sirens weren't sounding when the tornado hit. I am quick to point out that the sirens did indeed sound, they had just stopped before the tornado had reached their location.

I suppose one subject we have to figure out is whether or not outdoor sirens are supposed to be used for the purpose stated. I strongly discourage our newspaper and media from encouraging people to rely on the so called "tornado sirens" for their "take shelter call to action" - I encourage the paper/media/other to use NOAA All Hazard Radios for their first alert warning device. Obviously, from what we have read in multiple studies, people want verification before they take shelter. I don't blame them. I live in an area (like your area) that has multiple severe weather outbreaks each year. The PAH Office has confirmed over 80 tornadoes this season (at least check). This is an incredible number. It is nothing for the county (any given county in this region) to experience multiple tornado warnings each season.

Sirens serve their purpose. They are a heads up alert for those who can hear them. They won't be heard by everyone - sound only travels so far. Other factors also come into play (including power failure during storms) as to the effectiveness of outdoor sirens. I think it is a mistake to push the outdoor siren system beyond its stated purpose. One would, in my opinion, be better off spending that time/energy encouraging other means of communication to get the message out during severe weather outbreaks.

Education is the key to saving lives. No amount of education will save you from fate (meaning a worse case scenario). If an EF4 or EF5 hits your home and you don't have the proper shelter then your survival may depend on luck (at least partially).

The biggest movement I have seen over the last couple of years is the social media tsunami. Everyone and their grandma has Facebook/Twitter/texting/email/other. I witnessed an extreme uptick in the number of "likes" on my weather Facebook during this past winter and spring. Mostly because of these large events. We should take advantage of these disasters by pushing weather radios (I know Midland actually will drive a semi-truck into disaster areas) and education. I believe Evansville, Indiana has the largest per capita use of NOAA All Hazard Radios in the nation. This was not the case before their deadly tornado a few years ago. Afterwards - you could not keep weather radios in stock.

Are people using them? What percentage of people are using them?

Hard to say. There have been some studies on the topic. It appears most people receive their warning info from television media. Is that because less people own weather radios? Or is that because people are "tuned in" during severe weather outbreaks?

How does one measure the usefulness of the weather radio program. If Bob's weather radio goes off for a tornado warning is he then more likely to call his grandmother and parents and alert them? If so then the measure of usefulness can't be simply measured by knowing what percentage of people own a weather radio. One would need to know more than just that number.

How many people do we know personally that complain about the number of times their weather radio siren goes off? I know a lot - including people who have lost loved ones in tornado events. Is this just part of it? You live in an area that experiences 3-4-5-6 tornado warning a year (or whatever the number) - you live in an area that experiences 7-8-9-10-11 severe thunderstorm warnings a year. That means your weather radio tone alerts 10-20 times a year. Complacent much? Who wouldn't be.

As with everything in nature and safety/awareness it is difficult to measure how people react to different events until after its occurrence. These assessments are invaluable as a learning tool. They are useless if we don't get them into the hands of our local media and others. Hopefully people are posting the assessment on their Facebook page and emailing it to media/others. Not just in southwest Missouri but everywhere that deals with these type of storms.

[BeauDodson]

It's more difficult for me to ignore the siren given that there is one less than 50 yards away. I do agree that people could become desensitized in part due to frequent testing. I know they test them on Saturdays here but I couldn't tell you if it's weekly or bimonthly as I try my best to tune it out.

Lone Oak, Kentucky - a suburb of Paducah, Kentucky - blows their siren for fires. If there is a fire or car accident then they set the siren off in order to alert their volunteer firemen. There used to not be cell phones - texting - other methods to reach people. Thus the siren. They continue this practice to this day. It is extremely frustrating. I don't know how many people ask me why the sirens are going off. As you can imagine it is not uncommon to have a car accident or fire during a thunderstorm (lightning, slick roads, hydroplaning).

I have little doubt that people are going to lose their lives because of this practice. It is just a matter of time before the confusion occurs during a tornado event.

[JoMo]

I suppose one subject we have to figure out is whether or not outdoor sirens are supposed to be used for the purpose stated. I strongly discourage our newspaper and media from encouraging people to rely on the so called "tornado sirens" for their "take shelter call to action" - I encourage the paper/media/other to use NOAA All Hazard Radios for their first alert warning device. Obviously, from what we have read in multiple studies, people want verification before they take shelter. I don't blame them. I live in an area (like your area) that has multiple severe weather outbreaks each year. The PAH Office has confirmed over 80 tornadoes this season (at least check). This is an incredible number. It is nothing for the county (any given county in this region) to experience multiple tornado warnings each season.

Sirens serve their purpose. They are a heads up alert for those who can hear them. They won't be heard by everyone - sound only travels so far. Other factors also come into play (including power failure during storms) as to the effectiveness of outdoor sirens. I think it is a mistake to push the outdoor siren system beyond its stated purpose. One would, in my opinion, be better off spending that time/energy encouraging other means of communication to get the message out during severe weather outbreaks.

Education is the key to saving lives. No amount of education will save you from fate (meaning a worse case scenario). If an EF4 or EF5 hits your home and you don't have the proper shelter then your survival may depend on luck (at least partially).

The biggest movement I have seen over the last couple of years is the social media tsunami. Everyone and their grandma has Facebook/Twitter/texting/email/other. I witnessed an extreme uptick in the number of "likes" on my weather Facebook during this past winter and spring. Mostly because of these large events. We should take advantage of these disasters by pushing weather radios (I know Midland actually will drive a semi-truck into disaster areas) and education. I believe Evansville, Indiana has the largest per capita use of NOAA All Hazard Radios in the nation. This was not the case before their deadly tornado a few years ago. Afterwards - you could not keep weather radios in stock.

Are people using them? What percentage of people are using them?

Hard to say. There have been some studies on the topic. It appears most people receive their warning info from television media. Is that because less people own weather radios? Or is that because people are "tuned in" during severe weather outbreaks?

How does one measure the usefulness of the weather radio program. If Bob's weather radio goes off for a tornado warning is he then more likely to call his grandmother and parents and alert them? If so then the measure of usefulness can't be simply measured by knowing what percentage of people own a weather radio. One would need to know more than just that number.

How many people do we know personally that complain about the number of times their weather radio siren goes off? I know a lot - including people who have lost loved ones in tornado events. Is this just part of it? You live in an area that experiences 3-4-5-6 tornado warning a year (or whatever the number) - you live in an area that experiences 7-8-9-10-11 severe thunderstorm warnings a year. That means your weather radio tone alerts 10-20 times a year. Complacent much? Who wouldn't be.

As with everything in nature and safety/awareness it is difficult to measure how people react to different events until after its occurrence. These assessments are invaluable as a learning tool. They are useless if we don't get them into the hands of our local media and others. Hopefully people are posting the assessment on their Facebook page and emailing it to media/others. Not just in southwest Missouri but everywhere that deals with these type of storms.

A lot of people here do rely on the sirens. I guess it removes a little bit of the responsibility of having to check what the weather may do, you just leave it up to someone else to warn you. Either that or it's easier to blame it on 'not hearing the sirens'. I constantly bring up that sirens are an outdoor warning device only meant for those outdoors since people complain and say that they can't hear the sirens indoors. I point out that there's other forms of media such as TV, radio, or a NWR if you are indoors.

After the tornado, they did have a midland sale and program-a-thon at May's I think it was that was televised by one of the local news stations. Our EM was there programming radios as well. They were the WD100's I guess since you could program counties but not individual warnings. I predict that if people hear them going off all the time, they will do what I did with my old Radioshack one and stick it in the closet with no battery. I agree that the types of warnings should be programmable otherwise people get tired of hearing advisories/warnings that they don't need or want.

I don't find weather radios to be that great for me IMO. I can obtain information faster through the internet or other media outlets. They are probably more useful for those that don't pay too much attention to the weather. I will say the NWR did come in useful when I did not have power after the tornado and other tornadic/high wind storms happened on May 24th, but not as useful as the local radio station which had updates that were quicker and they were describing exactly where the rotation/winds were and even called the EM and had him on to tell people why the sirens were going off a second time. Of course 'nothing happened' that night.

Doug Heady (Joplinmet) uses facebook to inform people about the weather when we have severe weather. He has reached the 5000 friend limit on his account but has created another page with 3500 or so on it. He keeps both updated during severe weather situations and everyone helps each other out as far as locating where the severe weather is and where it's heading. I definitely think social media is a great way, but it could also suffer from people passing along incorrect information that is given to them, or people not understanding or getting something turned around so it leads to confusion. On the night of May 24th, my 65ish year old neighbor came over and said that his niece had called him on his cell phone to tell him that 'someone' had said 'they' expected a tornado to arrive in Joplin and it would be worse than the one we had just had on May 22nd. Of course it didn't happen.

There were many instances in Joplin of people calling loved ones and people they knew to tell them about the storm. There were a couple of instances of people being on the phone with their loved one when the tornado hit and the call did not drop, so they heard the entire thing as it was happening. That would be really hard to hear.

Despite the loss of power and several cell phone towers being destroyed in the storm, people were still able to text but they could not call on their cell phones.

As far as luck is concerned, I can definitely say I was lucky. Had the tornado been about 3 blocks closer or widened more rapidly, I'm not sure I would be here. There were people killed in their basements, and people that lived by being in a car that took a direct hit.

[B-Rent]

It's more difficult for me to ignore the siren given that there is one less than 50 yards away. I do agree that people could become desensitized in part due to frequent testing. I know they test them on Saturdays here but I couldn't tell you if it's weekly or bimonthly as I try my best to tune it out.

[Hoosier]

Eh, the siren really doesn't benefit someone like me anyway. I usually stay informed when I know severe wx is possible/happening. Chances are I know about the warning before the siren even goes off.