uncle W Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 how can this year possibly top 2009-10 and 2010-11 snow?...We saw February 2010 and January 2011 crush their snowfall record in NYC...Fogotten is the 9.1" snowstorm in January last year...December had a major snowstorm both years...March is the month with no major storms...Does it happen this year?...We missed by 20 miles of having another 10 incher in Feb. 2010...A good winter has at least one 10" or more snowfall and three or four snowfalls 4" or more...As of now I have hope for next winter...Colder than average and snowier than average...I added 1933 to the bunch of analogs for this year...I'm looking for another very negative AO period and if and when it comes we will probably see a blizzard or cold wave or both... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 It's certainly possible, although definitely unlikely climo-wise. Hopefully we can get another long -NAO stretch to maximize our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 It really boils down to the degree of blocking that we've been seeing the past two winters. For the most part, it has remained highly anomalous throughout the entire season in both of those years. To have the height anomalies over Greenland and even back towards Central Canada that we had the past two years would bring magical results in almost any winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I have a feeling we may not get a decent December event this year. We've been quite lucky in the weak La Nina Decembers the past 15 years excluding 2007 when surprise surprise the NAO was raging positive and in all honesty that La Nina was probably more moderate. 1995 is self explanatory, 2000 we got the fortunate miller B and we got the amazing timing and phasing in 2010, even 2008 we got lucky on the SW flow event on the 19th. Even with a -NAO though in all of those years we did need some luck and thats pretty typical of most La Ninas earlier in the winter season since you do not have the subtropical jet to give you a better chance at a Miller A. I think we're due for a pretty paltry December in a weak La Nina and this may be the year it happens....that does not mean we won't see a 4 or 5 inch event though I still think the winter will average above normal for snow. As Earthlight said, it comes down to th NAO and overall blocking mechanisms in the NATL and NPAC in La Ninas...if you don't have those in an El Nino you can sometimes still get some snow events, its quite hard to do the same in a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The best thing about probability is it doesn't depend on previous outcomes, so we're not really "due" for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The best thing about probability is it doesn't depend on previous outcomes, so we're not really "due" for anything. Tell that to your alter ego. If I get one more text from him that we can't get three above average winters in a row, I might have to shoot him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 It's really been an incredible run since 2002-2003. 2006-2007 would have put in a better showing if the Valentine's Day Storm was all snow instead of sleet and freezing rain. NYC 2002-03 49.3 2003-04 42.6 2004-05 41.0 2005-06 0 40.0 2006-07 12.4 2007-08 11.9 2008-09 27.6 2009-10 51.4 2010-11 61.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 We knew it was going to be a better winter when we had more snow by Dec 10th of that year than the previous winter's total It's really been an incredible run since 2002-2003 when it seemed to turn with the Christmas rain to snowstorm. 2006-2007 would have put in a better showing if the Valentine's Day Storm was all snow instead of sleet and freezing rain. NYC 2002-03 49.3 2003-04 42.6 2004-05 41.0 2005-06 0 40.0 2006-07 12.4 2007-08 11.9 2008-09 27.6 2009-10 51.4 2010-11 61.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 We knew it was going to be a better winter when we had more snow by Dec 10th of that year than the previous winter's total That's true. Even with the warmth of early January 2005 and the month of January 2006, NYC was still able to manage 40 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 That's true. Even with the warmth of early January 2005 and the month of January 2006, NYC was still able to manage 40 inches. Take a look at the long range ensembles, blocking is showing up starting first week of October. Not ideal per your calculations, but it certainly hasn't hurt the last two winters. Very curious as to what the PNA will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 The last 19 years have been great for big snowstorms...16 storms 10" or more...There were only four between 1969 and 1993... 10.3" Mar. 1993 12.8" Feb. 1994 10.8" Feb. 1995 20.2" Jan. 1996 10.7" Feb. 1996 12.0" Dec. 2000 19.8" Feb. 2003 14.0" Dec. 2003 10.4" Jan. 2004 13.8" Jan. 2005 26.9" Feb. 2006 10.7" Dec. 2009 10.0" Feb. 2010 20.0" Feb. 2010 20.0" Dec. 2010 19.0" Jan. 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The last 19 years have been great for big snowstorms...16 storms 10" or more...There were only four between 1969 and 1993... 10.3" Mar. 1993 12.8" Feb. 1994 10.8" Feb. 1995 20.2" Jan. 1996 10.7" Feb. 1996 12.0" Dec. 2000 19.8" Feb. 2003 14.0" Dec. 2003 10.4" Jan. 2004 13.8" Jan. 2005 26.9" Feb. 2006 10.7" Dec. 2009 10.0" Feb. 2010 20.0" Feb. 2010 20.0" Dec. 2010 19.0" Jan. 2011 A lot of that had to do with DT liviing in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 A lot of that had to do with DT liviing in NYC Wow, did he really live here during that period? I didn't know where he lived before Richmond because he's been there as long as I've seen him post since the late 1990s. Thats a true classic that he managed to find another snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The last 19 years have been great for big snowstorms...16 storms 10" or more...There were only four between 1969 and 1993...10.3" Mar. 199312.8" Feb. 199410.8" Feb. 199520.2" Jan. 199610.7" Feb. 199612.0" Dec. 200019.8" Feb. 200314.0" Dec. 200310.4" Jan. 200413.8" Jan. 200526.9" Feb. 200610.7" Dec. 200910.0" Feb. 201020.0" Feb. 201020.0" Dec. 201019.0" Jan. 2011 Interesting. What did say 1945-1969 put out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Interesting. What did say 1945-1969 put out? thirteen if you count January 1961's 9.9"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The last 19 years have been great for big snowstorms...16 storms 10" or more...There were only four between 1969 and 1993... 10.3" Mar. 1993 12.8" Feb. 1994 10.8" Feb. 1995 20.2" Jan. 1996 10.7" Feb. 1996 12.0" Dec. 2000 19.8" Feb. 2003 14.0" Dec. 2003 10.4" Jan. 2004 13.8" Jan. 2005 26.9" Feb. 2006 10.7" Dec. 2009 10.0" Feb. 2010 20.0" Feb. 2010 20.0" Dec. 2010 19.0" Jan. 2011 Very snowy era, you know this can't continue.We are due for another drought,.hope it doesn't start this year.Dreading another period like 84-91 or worst 96-2000.However if we are in the same pattern as say 46-67,then it will continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Wow, did he really live here during that period? I didn't know where he lived before Richmond because he's been there as long as I've seen him post since the late 1990s. Thats a true classic that he managed to find another snow hole. yes he did. He always talks about how he got burned with some of the no-storms of the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Blocking has really made the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 thirteen if you count January 1961's 9.9"... That is interesting. Almost 20-25 year cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Blocking has really made the difference. Imagine if you didn't have part of 2006 and all of 2007 and 2008 in there how much better that would look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I'm not too gung ho about the upcoming winter yet. It's hard to imagine topping last year or the year before. I think we want to see more of a positive NAO in the second half of the fall which hopefully would reverese itself come the winter. Nature has a way of reversing extremes, and we might be better off with a warmer than average, drier than average fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Imagine if you didn't have part of 2006 and all of 2007 and 2008 in there how much better that would look? Yeah, 2007 and 2008 was a really a tough break around here for snow.The younger posters should feel lucky that they missed some of the epic snow droughts during a good part of the 70's and 80's into the early 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Blocking has really made the difference. Yup, and it's amazing that it's really that simple. But it is in most cases. Obviously you deal with things like suppression, etc and you can always have an event bust..but having blocking just makes it easier to get the puzzle pieces in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Yeah, 2007 and 2008 was a really a tough break around here for snow.The younger posters should feel lucky that they missed some of the epic snow droughts during a good part of the 70's and 80's into the early 90's. I'm definitely thankful I became a weather enthusiaster more or less around 2000, just as the active winters were beginning to set in. Actually the 80s weren't all that bad from CNJ southward through the mid atlantic. If I remember my numbers correctly, New Brunwick averaged about 27" during the 80s, contrast to a much lower NYC total. The 90s were much crappier for CNJ than the 80s. But now that we've passed the height of the +PDO/+AMO regime, we should be safe in terms of long stretches (several consecutive years) with virtually nothing, like we had in the 1988-1993 period. PDO is now negative, and many longer term climate models indicate the AMO possibly going negative next year (at least temporarily). The AMO cycle change probably won't occur for another several years, and when that happens, expect global temperatures to take an even bigger tumble (in addition to the meager solar activity). I think we'll see global temps fall below normal by the start of 2012, as this second year Nina event kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The winters were pretty ugly here after 2005 until 2009 or so. One great storm thrown in there (feb 2006)...but for a long stretch there...every storm wound up bringing less snow than forecast. Every one. More sleet, less snow. Warm ground, less snow. Overdone dynamics, less snow. The last few winters have been the total opposite end of the spectrum. In a way, though, I'm glad k experienced those winters that were bad. It helped me to become more objective in forecasting and to look at the things that can go wrong. I guess there's something to gain out of terrible winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Blocking has really made the difference. can you post a map from Dec. 1955 to March 1969?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The winters were pretty ugly here after 2005 until 2009 or so. One great storm thrown in there (feb 2006)...but for a long stretch there...every storm wound up bringing less snow than forecast. Every one. More sleet, less snow. Warm ground, less snow. Overdone dynamics, less snow. The last few winters have been the total opposite end of the spectrum. In a way, though, I'm glad k experienced those winters that were bad. It helped me to become more objective in forecasting and to look at the things that can go wrong. I guess there's something to gain out of terrible winters Yeah, 2005-2009 certainly can't hold a candle to the past 2 winters, but those years weren't completely duds. 2005-06 had 30"+, 2008-09 had near 30", and 2006-07 had an impressive sleet storm and ice storm in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 The winters were pretty ugly here after 2005 until 2009 or so. One great storm thrown in there (feb 2006)...but for a long stretch there...every storm wound up bringing less snow than forecast. Every one. More sleet, less snow. Warm ground, less snow. Overdone dynamics, less snow. The last few winters have been the total opposite end of the spectrum. In a way, though, I'm glad k experienced those winters that were bad. It helped me to become more objective in forecasting and to look at the things that can go wrong. I guess there's something to gain out of terrible winters I was born in 1949 but was to young to remember the terrible snow winters the first six years of my life...The period from the late 50's early 60's spoiled me...It made the early 1970's harder to take...we will get a dud or two maybe as early as this year...A 30" season will seem puny...Are we in a new era or at the crest of a huge wave?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 can you post a map from Dec. 1955 to March 1969?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Blocking has really made the difference. whats been great the past couple years is that the blocking hasnt been too severe to the point of supression. its been usually just enough about every time. the AO has also been on our side the past two winters, esp. im beginning to think nothing can happen unless the arctic is in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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