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9/21-9/28 heavy rain obs


tombo82685

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Chance for some stronger storms after 2 PM today locally, esp city/north.

day1otlk_1300.gif

The tornado risk is 2%throughout, with 5% towards NYC-BOS

entire slight risk is 30%wind,

with 15% hail from NYC-PHL-ALL of Jersey.

SPC AC 291245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0745 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FROM

ERN PA/NJ EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY...

...MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...

MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY WILL EVOLVE INTO

AN OPEN WAVE TODAY AS EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND 50-55 KT

MIDLEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER OH VLY INTO NEW

ENGLAND. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OBSERVED OVER NERN

PA WILL DEVELOP NNEWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VLY WHILE TRAILING PORTION

OF COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND

THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY 30/12Z. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY

RESIDING ACROSS FAR SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NWD IN

ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT.

DESPITE NUMEROUS CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE PRESENCE OF A

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST DAYTIME HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPE

VALUES TO 1000-1300 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER

FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE BLUE RIDGE. AS

SUCH...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY

LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...INITIALLY OVER THE DE AND HUDSON

RIVER VLYS. STEADILY STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL

RESULT IN 40-50 KT OF DEEP SSWLY SHEAR BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE

MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES

CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR

TWO. EXPECT TSTMS TO RAPIDLY SPREAD EWD/NEWD THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL

PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED

RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 70-90 KT MIDLEVEL JET

STREAK WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION DURING THE D1 PERIOD

WHILE DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO OH AND TN

VLYS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM WRN WI TO MID MO VLY WILL

ACCORDINGLY STRENGTHEN WHILE SWEEPING EWD/SEWD TOWARD THE

APPALACHIANS AND GULF COAST STATES.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OWING TO THE

PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS IN WAKE OF ATLANTIC COAST FRONTAL

SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES

WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG.

DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH A CORRIDOR

OF INTENSE DCVA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FORCE A

BAND OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. INCIPIENT

SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF

LM AND WRN LOWER MI INTO IND WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING RAPIDLY

EWD/SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO OH BY EVENING. WHILE SOME HAIL AND A

BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY

SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD OWING TO THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF A

STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 09/29/2011

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Models now showing the next trough also cuts off. Every trough since August seems to be cutting off. The difference is this one will cut off near us and not really drop much rain. Days will be partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a popup shower. The big change is instead of 70s/80s and humid, we will struggle to make 60 during the day with 40s at night. I'm so desperate to get rid of the airmass that has dominated for the past 2 months that it doesn't sound too bad.

Maybe this should go in the next closed low from hell obs.

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Models now showing the next trough also cuts off. Every trough since August seems to be cutting off. The difference is this one will cut off near us and not really drop much rain. Days will be partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a popup shower. The big change is instead of 70s/80s and humid, we will struggle to make 60 during the day with 40s at night. I'm so desperate to get rid of the airmass that has dominated for the past 2 months that it doesn't sound too bad.

Maybe this should go in the next closed low from hell obs.

That doesn't sound to bad hopefully more chances to film thunderstorms but hope is fading for that for me as we are entering October doesn't the chances drop off dramatically?

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Models now showing the next trough also cuts off. Every trough since August seems to be cutting off. The difference is this one will cut off near us and not really drop much rain. Days will be partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a popup shower. The big change is instead of 70s/80s and humid, we will struggle to make 60 during the day with 40s at night. I'm so desperate to get rid of the airmass that has dominated for the past 2 months that it doesn't sound too bad.

Maybe this should go in the next closed low from hell obs.

Amen to that!

Yeah, sure is something to see all of these ull cutting off so frequently. I cannot recall seeing them do this back to back. Although, atleast this weekend one will be cutting off basically on top of us with no southernly fetch of air!

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