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9/21-9/28 heavy rain obs


tombo82685

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Flash Flood Watches out for Eastern PA and NW NJ today. Most of this appears to be scattered so it may be another hit/miss event locally.

All kidding aside, just going by radar trends from the last 2 days with this ULL set up, seems likely that some decent scattered convection should be able to cause flash flooding.

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:lol: at the video

post-105-0-29801000-1317204489.gif

The goods down in VA should track up into S C PA later on based on current progs, might skirt western burbs but most of it should trek west of city later on.

Yup, looks like the main threat today is West/Southwest of us. SPC has a slight risk from C PA to S VA. Tomorrow they have our area in the see text.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1225 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

OH VALLEY UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE FORCED TO OPEN AND EJECT EWD AS

UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DIGS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL

RESULT IN A FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD

FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM UPSTATE NY...SWD TO THE LEE OF THE

APPALACHIANS OVER CNTRL VA AT 18Z. WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BOTH THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST MODEST BOUNDARY

LAYER HEATING WILL BE NOTED TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS A

RESULT...AFTERNOON BUOYANCY SHOULD AID ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN A

SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD OTHERWISE FAVOR DEEP STORM ROTATION.

WILL INTRODUCE LOW PROBS...5%...TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING

WINDS/HAIL WITH STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS OR PERHAPS EVEN A FEW

SUPERCELLS.

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Wouldn't surprise me if the VA cluster does in fact hit the Philly burbs later...it's fired a bit further east and some storms are firing in the Chesapeake Bay as of now.

Chesco and Upper Montco been getting hitting pretty well this AM....

Always enjoy reading ur thoughts in the morning...thanks...goes great with some coffee

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WUUS51 KPHI 281758

SVRPHI

DEC001-MDC011-035-281900-

/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0306.110928T1758Z-110928T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

158 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WESTERN KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DOVER...

CAROLINE COUNTY IN EASTERN MARYLAND...

NORTHEASTERN QUEEN ANNE'S COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 155 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

HARMONY...OR 13 MILES EAST OF EASTON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

GRIFFIN AROUND 205 PM EDT...

DENTON AROUND 210 PM EDT...

6 MILES EAST OF RIDGELY AROUND 220 PM EDT...

GREENSBORO AROUND 230 PM EDT...

SANDTOWN AND GOLDSBORO AROUND 245 PM EDT...

HAZLETTVILLE AND HARTLY AROUND 300 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE

IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD

TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...

PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY

CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 7596 3879 7595 3881 7590 3885 7593

3926 7583 3925 7581 3925 7579 3919 7549

3883 7571 3883 7573 3881 7572 3873 7577

TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 197DEG 18KT 3881 7582

$$

HAYES

a nice pocket of instabilty over the delmarva ,jersey and SE PA.. lets see what happens.

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mcd2212.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0345 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NERN MD...NRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282045Z - 282145Z

MARGINAL THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS POSING A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT

EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN PA...NERN MD AND NRN DE DURING THE

NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO

SUPPORT WW ISSUANCE.

AT 2030Z...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LOCATED

FROM SERN PA SEWD INTO DE. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPR 70S

COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S ARE SUPPORTING MODEST

INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J PER KG/ DESPITE POOR

LAPSE RATES. MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS AIDED

IN SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA DURING THE

LAST FEW HRS. AS THESE CELLS LIFT NWD...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE

AND 0-1 KM SRH RANGING FROM 100-200 M2 S-2. AS A RESULT...A FEW

ROTATING STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND

POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK

INSTABILITY AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...A WW

DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

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Parts of MacArthur road under water by the Whitehall Mall and near the high school. Emergency teams all over the place. Several roads closed between East Allentown and North Whitehall. Never, ever drove in such intense rain before and vivid cloud to ground lightning. Firemen in front of McDonalds on 7th street up to their knees in standing water-and it all happened in such a short period.

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Parts of MacArthur road under water by the Whitehall Mall and near the high school. Emergency teams all over the place. Several roads closed between East Allentown and North Whitehall. Never, ever drove in such intense rain before and vivid cloud to ground lightning. Firemen in front of McDonalds on 7th street up to their knees in standing water-and it all happened in such a short period.

I really wouldn't be surprised if the rainfall rate was about 6"/hr at the heaviest point - that was some crazy flash flooding.

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Probably the most intense rainfall rates of the year this evening IMBY. Davis weather station recorded a max rainfall rate of 10.29"/hr at 6:29 p.m. Despite that, I ended up with a total of 2.13" of rain which was enough to create a 3 tier waterfall in the backyard for 45 minutes or so and some flash flooding on the roadways in the area. Most of the rain fell within an hour.

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