Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

9/21-9/28 heavy rain obs


tombo82685

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 215
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Steve D. mentions this is in his FB post today, anybody have any thoughts on this?

I am becoming very concerned with this disturbance in the Bahamas. http://1.usa.gov/9NzClK As I discussed in the Premium Videos this afternoon, this disturbance should interact with the upper low to produce VERY heavy rain on Monday morning for the northern Mid Atlantic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Steve D. mentions this is in his FB post today, anybody have any thoughts on this?

I am becoming very concerned with this disturbance in the Bahamas. http://1.usa.gov/9NzClK As I discussed in the Premium Videos this afternoon, this disturbance should interact with the upper low to produce VERY heavy rain on Monday morning for the northern Mid Atlantic.

That would not be a good thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2.3 inches of rain so far. Little Lehigh jumping out its banks. Spring Creek Rd will be under water soon. Need the break but another two inches will raise the ground water table into the basements again. I just do not see how the corn and or soybean crop will make it without having mold problems.

There won't be another 2 inches, at least not tonight into tomorrow. And if our next shot at heavy rain isn't until Monday morning or so, we should have some time to dry out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Steve D. mentions this is in his FB post today, anybody have any thoughts on this?

I am becoming very concerned with this disturbance in the Bahamas. http://1.usa.gov/9NzClK As I discussed in the Premium Videos this afternoon, this disturbance should interact with the upper low to produce VERY heavy rain on Monday morning for the northern Mid Atlantic.

Should be very interesting to watch Models never really had a consistence run to run handle on this event. On the now-casting side of things Your heavy rain fall dynamics like forcing and potential precip placement down in the south are setting up more west again. to early to say weather or not it will end up more west but sure will need to be monitored closely. anyone remember Lee? we had a band the following morning the models did not even have. I always pin point late August through October as the time of year models perform the worst do to the changing of seasons summer battling against fall patterns. Add an upper level low and you got recipe for model confusion. Lets hope it stays east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest data along with what models have so far come in tonight suggest that this next disturbance shifts west. given the performance of this ULL I figured it seamed proper that we nowcast this in case it becomes a bigger concern then earlier Forecasted. Any thoughts on the potential outcome as the models come in?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest NAM just in shifted pretty far west and stronger for Saturday night through Sunday dumping 2-3 inches for Delaware and new jersey with Isolated 4 inch amounts. if this continues future runs and on other models I would assume flood watches get extended. Still a low confidence in this but must be monitored closely. nam_namer_045_precip_ptot.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes it is more the likely we will not see a tropical system but the interaction between the Bahamas Disturbance/ moisture and ULL will be key to watch as thing reload down south tomorrow.

The GFS through 72 has somewhat the same thing as the NAM, but doesn't get the 3-4 inch rains above Cape May County.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is on board with the nam for positioning not the rain fall amounts. Continuing to become more interested in Sunday. Current water vapor is more Northerly now and would strongly support what the 00z runs have put out. Of course it appears that intensity will not be worked out till this actually develops if it were to happen. As for the departure of the Upper Level Low it has a strong to severe line of storms with a front coming through Tuesday. I would suspect Hail and wind could be a good enough threat for a legit slight risk day central pa on east to the New jersey turnpike. Still a lot of time to work out freezing levels dynamics and instability but looking pretty solid to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Total for the event starting with the Thursday morning rain we had up here was 4.15" as another 4/10 fell last night after I got home from work and emptied the gauge. I really wish I had a total just for yesterday's (Friday's) rainfall, but as I said earlier I forgot to empty the gauge Thursday night because I got home from work very late and just didn't think about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Steve D. mentions this is in his FB post today, anybody have any thoughts on this?

I am becoming very concerned with this disturbance in the Bahamas. http://1.usa.gov/9NzClK As I discussed in the Premium Videos this afternoon, this disturbance should interact with the upper low to produce VERY heavy rain on Monday morning for the northern Mid Atlantic.

Timing is more like Sunday PM and Sunday night...and this is something that's been modeled off/on for a few days at varying intensity...to be honest, this isn't something that's just popped up...the models were sniffing this thing out 3 or 4 days ago (GFS first, IIRC).

For hoots/hollers, the 6z GFS has very little rain through Monday AM...it shows it's going to be a touch/go rain event and that the models are terribly inconsistent this close to the event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...