r-ville Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Current Meso analysis at H5 features an ejecting parcel from the overnight, with another close on its heels rounding the bottom of the trough. As that and a favorable R entrance region jet drag up PWAT of 1.6++" in an almost straight north direction (as indicated by the 850 mb moisture transport), it could of course be the best threat for heavy rain in the near - med range. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# I notice that the 3z SREFS still play this out as a mostly east of I-95 event - until 0z Sunday at which time it pokes a spoke of additional QPF back into C. PA. That notion of a late weekend soaking is well supported by the 0z SKEW-T.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/compskwframe0z.html I gotta say though, the WV imagery is not at all impressive - the tap root is only just touching the GOM as Hillary steals the real moisture available from the deep tropics. Plus the approaching jet streak rounding the positively tillted trough is not exactly coming through a bastion of moisture. That is likely the difference between the firehose we could have seen, and the sprinkler with a "heavy" setting that I expect. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3®ion=he Long range outlooks feature a persistant Omega Block that fades and flexes through mid-Oct. So expect something a bit like this for the next couple o'weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Pretty heavy shower on the eastern shore of Md. Should start things off here in SE PA. Heaviest looks to take aim at chesco with that cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Mothership of rain is down southwest of DC yet. http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 round 1 incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=09&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=06&fhour=84¶meter=PCPIN&level=84&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Total 84hr precipitation bullseyes the I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Some good news is that the 9z SREF's really back off on the qpf compared to 3z through hour 48. The bullseye is further southeast. Some members have more falling after hour 48, but I'm focused on today into tomorrow. 3z 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 12z NAM through 36. If this were winter, I would be tearing out my hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 up to .32 at home so far, with hvy rain currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 .40" here, raining hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 .65 now at home, been under a heavy rain blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 .65 now at home, been under a heavy rain blob. another one incoming from over top Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 My obs: YUCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 12z NAM through 36. If this were winter, I would be tearing out my hair as phlwx stated, the nam has been about as good as the phils have been lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 .65" and climbing, still raining steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 0.22" so far. Somehow my grass seed germinated in under 4 days, hopefully enough to withstand any heavy rain from washing it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 0.38" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 .98 right now at d hizzle...phl intl has 1.34 on the day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Adams county up to 1.5 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 west of Allentown in Macungie is at 0.08". Looks like I95 may "win" this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Just overcast here.....when does it start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 2.7 inchs, adams co wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 0.24" so far here in NW Chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I am still soaked from walking a block downtown while it was Vietnaming out with a half broken umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 All-out downpour in Hazleton. 64/64, 0.64" for the day, 8.10" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Just some random on and off showers here...hasn't amounted to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Hoping that dry(er) slot moves into SE PA shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Parents in Ewing have had 1.65" so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 0.99 so far today. Rain has lifted north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 1.04", rain has lessened somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.