tombo82685 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 post your obs, potential exists for several inches of rain over numerous days which could lead to flooding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 so far .06 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 so far .06 today Raining lightly outside of my office near Lansdale, PA. Hope the rain doesn't mess with the next two Phils games at Citizen's Bank park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Dreary is the only ob I can post as of now. Humid as well. Obs over the next few days will determine if I should overseed this Fri/Sat/Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Light rain here that isn't even showing up on radar. Kind of sticky out with a temp of 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Just a trace of rain here today......hoping my grass seed survives past Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 343 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>019-PAZ060>062-067>071-222000- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0013.110923T1200Z-110924T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON... WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY... READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 343 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX... MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX... WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS... BUCKS... CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONTGOMERY... NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA. * FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON * PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GROUND REMAINS WET FROM THE HEAVY RAINS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MONTH AND ARE LIMITED IN THEIR ABILITY TO ABSORB MUCH RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES MAY OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCAL FOUR INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING WILL INCLUDE...SMALL STREAM FLOODING, ROAD AND BASEMENT FLOODING. LARGER RIVERS MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE THE RAINFALL WITH OUT SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING, BUT THEY MAY RUN HIGH AND POSSIBLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OCCUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Heavy shower sitting overhead. Mod rain, temp is 80* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Cracked 80 here as well......just a few sprinkles thus far along with an hour or two of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Hit 77 for a high, no rain so far. Had a couple of showers last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Mt Holly extended the flood watch into the coastal Jersey areas, we look to get the most out of the event down here. FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 308 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>019-PAZ060>062-067>071-230315- /O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0013.110923T1200Z-110924T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON... WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY... READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 308 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER... HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX...WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS...CHESTER... DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA. * FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON * PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GROUND REMAINS SOGGY AND WET FROM THE HEAVY RAINS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MONTH WITH LIMITED ABSORPTION CAPACITY. WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THIS WATCH AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCAL FIVE INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ESCAPE WITH LESS THAN 2 INCH STORM TOTALS. * PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES ARE THE COUNTIES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INCLUSIVE OF MORRIS...SUSSEX AND WARREN AS WELL AS THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON AND PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND NEW BRUNSWICK INTO THE READING... POTTSTOWN...ALLENTOWN AREA OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. * IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING WILL INCLUDE...ROAD AND BASEMENT FLOODING...AND A FEW SMALL STREAMS WILL PROBABLY FLOOD. LARGER RIVERS MAY BE ABLE PROCESS THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WITH OUT SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING.. EVEN SO...SEVERAL OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS MAY RUN HIGH AND POSSIBLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IF BASIN RAINFALL AVERAGES 4 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Nvm on the last ob, small thunderstorm rolling right through my area as we speak. Moderate rains and some loud thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Can we add discussion into this thread also? Since the rain posts are getting lost in the discussion about snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 18z NAM has 4 inches plus, firehose setting up, from Jersey into far eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Can we add discussion into this thread also? Since the rain posts are getting lost in the discussion about snow. Discussion (models) about the 9/21-9/28 rain should be in here along with obs IMO. Banter tends to go off topic (my fault today....others brought up snow last night). I'll move snow talk to the 2011-2012 winter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Discussion (models) about the 9/21-9/28 rain should be in here along with obs IMO. Banter tends to go off topic (my fault today....others brought up snow last night). I'll move snow talk to the 2011-2012 winter thread. It's completely fine you guys were discussing snow in there man, it's the banter thread, no worries. Only thing I wanted to make sure was the event discussion for this rain didn't get lost. Other then that, I could care less if there's 80 pages of snow discussion in there, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 18z GFS comes in with 2-4 regionwide, most over SJ and DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 wow 18z nam has some heavy bands training over the same parts of eastern pa running straight north into my area. .50 of an inch of rainfall the past two days so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 It's completely fine you guys were discussing snow in there man, it's the banter thread, no worries. Only thing I wanted to make sure was the event discussion for this rain didn't get lost. Other then that, I could care less if there's 80 pages of snow discussion in there, lol. Cool. should be interesting to see if the 18z NAM scenario plays out tomorrow. That would not be good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 12z and 18z RGEM dump on Jersey real good (or bad). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 937 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027- PAZ060>062-067>071-230945- /O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0013.110923T1200Z-110924T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...ALLENTOWN... BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA... PHILADELPHIA 937 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN DELAWARE... DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES AND TALBOT. IN NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN... CUMBERLAND...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON... MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON... OCEAN...SALEM...SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...SUSSEX... WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS... CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA. * FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON * PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO A PORTION OF SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS ARE EXPECTED... ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA MIGHT ESCAPE WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN. * THE GROUND REMAINS SOGGY AND WET FROM THE HEAVY RAINS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MONTH WITH LIMITED ABSORPTION CAPACITY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THROUGH NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. * PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES ARE THE COUNTIES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INCLUSIVE OF MORRIS...SUSSEX AND WARREN AS WELL AS THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON AND PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND NEW BRUNSWICK INTO THE READING... POTTSTOWN...ALLENTOWN AREA OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. * FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE..IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN 6 HOURS TO CAUSE ANYTHING MORE THAN POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIAL BASEMENT AND HIGHWAY FLOODING. THE FLOOD RISKS APPEAR TO BE LESS THERE THAN COMPARED TO THE WILMINGTON... PHILADELPHIA...NEW BRUNSWICK CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. * THE RAIN APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AT LEAST TWO SUBSTANTIAL BATCHES...ONE DURING MIDDAY FRIDAY WHEN 1 TO 3 INCHES IS FORECAST WITHIN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD OCCUR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 0z NAM hits areas west of PHL hard, that don't need it, out near Lancaster/York Counties. Still gives most of the area 3-4 though. The firehose setup has been moving east and west with every run, so at this point, who knows where it's going to setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 After the NAM's preformance with the last storm, I'm not sure I'm buying anything it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I hope the 00z nam is wrong. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 0z GFS completely different then the NAM through 24. Hardly any precip from PHL west, South Jersey gets rocked, 1-3 through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 GFS through 96 just rocks the southern half of Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 The NAM has blown chunks with this pattern...some folks would be around 2-3" of rain by now if the NAM were right, not .02 or .03 that has fallen in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 0z NAM hits areas west of PHL hard, that don't need it, out near Lancaster/York Counties. Still gives most of the area 3-4 though. The firehose setup has been moving east and west with every run, so at this point, who knows where it's going to setup. Kind of similar to the last event in that regard. It ended up hitting the Susquehanna River basin, but the modelling was showing anywhere from E PA to the State College area prior to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Point of reference -- 6 hr totals on the high res through 2 PM today http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/6hpcp18h.html Between 2 and 8 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/6hpcp24h.html Between 8 and 2 tonight: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/6hpcp30h.html High res has been pretty solid so far with the placement of rainfall over the past few days. My thinking is we see the focus start south/east this morning and early PM, shift north/west late this PM and tonight with the stuff on radar in Virginia and in the Carolinas lifting northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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