Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

9/21-9/28 heavy rain obs


tombo82685

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 215
  • Created
  • Last Reply

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

343 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>019-PAZ060>062-067>071-222000-

/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0013.110923T1200Z-110924T2200Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-

MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-

GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-

NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON...

WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...

NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...

GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...

READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...

NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA

343 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST

MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE

FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN

NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...EASTERN

MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...

MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX...

WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...

BUCKS... CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONTGOMERY...

NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY

THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GROUND REMAINS WET FROM THE HEAVY RAINS

THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MONTH AND ARE LIMITED IN THEIR

ABILITY TO ABSORB MUCH RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF

ONE TO THREE INCHES MAY OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCAL FOUR

INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING WILL INCLUDE...SMALL STREAM FLOODING,

ROAD AND BASEMENT FLOODING. LARGER RIVERS MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE

THE RAINFALL WITH OUT SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING, BUT THEY MAY RUN

HIGH AND POSSIBLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IF HIGHER RAINFALL

TOTALS OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON

CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE

FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE

PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mt Holly extended the flood watch into the coastal Jersey areas, we look to get the most out of the event down here.

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

308 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>019-PAZ060>062-067>071-230315-

/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0013.110923T1200Z-110924T2200Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-

MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-

GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-

NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON...

WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...

NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...

GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...

READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...

NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA

308 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW

JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN

NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL.

IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...

HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN

BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX...WARREN AND WESTERN

MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS...CHESTER...

DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY

THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GROUND REMAINS SOGGY AND WET FROM THE

HEAVY RAINS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MONTH WITH LIMITED

ABSORPTION CAPACITY. WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE

INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THIS WATCH AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCAL

FIVE INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT

PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ESCAPE WITH LESS THAN 2

INCH STORM TOTALS.

* PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES

ARE THE COUNTIES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

INCLUSIVE OF MORRIS...SUSSEX AND WARREN AS WELL AS THE URBAN

AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON AND

PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND NEW BRUNSWICK INTO THE READING...

POTTSTOWN...ALLENTOWN AREA OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING WILL INCLUDE...ROAD AND BASEMENT

FLOODING...AND A FEW SMALL STREAMS WILL PROBABLY FLOOD. LARGER

RIVERS MAY BE ABLE PROCESS THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF

WITH OUT SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING.. EVEN SO...SEVERAL OF THE MAIN

STEM RIVERS MAY RUN HIGH AND POSSIBLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IF

BASIN RAINFALL AVERAGES 4 INCHES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can we add discussion into this thread also? Since the rain posts are getting lost in the discussion about snow.

Discussion (models) about the 9/21-9/28 rain should be in here along with obs IMO. Banter tends to go off topic (my fault today....others brought up snow last night). I'll move snow talk to the 2011-2012 winter thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Discussion (models) about the 9/21-9/28 rain should be in here along with obs IMO. Banter tends to go off topic (my fault today....others brought up snow last night). I'll move snow talk to the 2011-2012 winter thread.

It's completely fine you guys were discussing snow in there man, it's the banter thread, no worries. Only thing I wanted to make sure was the event discussion for this rain didn't get lost. Other then that, I could care less if there's 80 pages of snow discussion in there, lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's completely fine you guys were discussing snow in there man, it's the banter thread, no worries. Only thing I wanted to make sure was the event discussion for this rain didn't get lost. Other then that, I could care less if there's 80 pages of snow discussion in there, lol.

Cool.

should be interesting to see if the 18z NAM scenario plays out tomorrow. That would not be good at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

937 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-

PAZ060>062-067>071-230945-

/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0013.110923T1200Z-110924T2200Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-

QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-

SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-

GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-

ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-

COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-

CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...

REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...

DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...

SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...

PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...

MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...

CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...

LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...ALLENTOWN...

BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...

PHILADELPHIA

937 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND

PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN DELAWARE...

DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW CASTLE. IN

NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES

AND TALBOT. IN NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE

MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN...

CUMBERLAND...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...

MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...

OCEAN...SALEM...SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...SUSSEX...

WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS...

CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND

PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY

INTO A PORTION OF SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS ARE

EXPECTED... ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SMALL

CHANCE PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA MIGHT ESCAPE WITH LESS THAN

2 INCHES OF RAIN.

* THE GROUND REMAINS SOGGY AND WET FROM THE HEAVY RAINS THAT

OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MONTH WITH LIMITED ABSORPTION CAPACITY

FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THROUGH NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND

EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES

ARE THE COUNTIES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78 IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

INCLUSIVE OF MORRIS...SUSSEX AND WARREN AS WELL AS THE URBAN

AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON AND

PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND NEW BRUNSWICK INTO THE READING...

POTTSTOWN...ALLENTOWN AREA OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* FURTHER SOUTHEAST...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND MUCH

OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE..IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE RAINFALL

IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN 6 HOURS TO CAUSE ANYTHING MORE THAN

POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIAL BASEMENT AND HIGHWAY FLOODING. THE FLOOD

RISKS APPEAR TO BE LESS THERE THAN COMPARED TO THE WILMINGTON...

PHILADELPHIA...NEW BRUNSWICK CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* THE RAIN APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AT LEAST TWO SUBSTANTIAL

BATCHES...ONE DURING MIDDAY FRIDAY WHEN 1 TO 3 INCHES IS

FORECAST WITHIN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN

SHOULD OCCUR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD PRODUCE

ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z NAM hits areas west of PHL hard, that don't need it, out near Lancaster/York Counties. Still gives most of the area 3-4 though. The firehose setup has been moving east and west with every run, so at this point, who knows where it's going to setup.

Kind of similar to the last event in that regard. It ended up hitting the Susquehanna River basin, but the modelling was showing anywhere from E PA to the State College area prior to the event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Point of reference -- 6 hr totals on the high res through 2 PM today

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/6hpcp18h.html

Between 2 and 8

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/6hpcp24h.html

Between 8 and 2 tonight:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/6hpcp30h.html

High res has been pretty solid so far with the placement of rainfall over the past few days.

My thinking is we see the focus start south/east this morning and early PM, shift north/west late this PM and tonight with the stuff on radar in Virginia and in the Carolinas lifting northeast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...