Thundersnow12 Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 some of the crazy amped NAM runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 I liked that track better some of the crazy amped NAM runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I still have some local and WGN newscasts from before and after the GHD blizzard on the DVR. Watching them reminded me of the snow that fell off and on for about 24-36hrs before the main show arrived. I think that had a huge impact on snowfall amounts with the main storm. The column was already completely saturated well before the main show, and in fact it was snowing/flurrying the morning of the blizzard. That's a stark contrast to many snowstorms/blizzards where you have to sacrifice some leading edge snow to saturating the lower atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I Will never forget how excited SEMichiganders were days before the storm just the thought of 20" was in the works was unimaginable. The build up from run to run, snow map after snow map, the excitement grew from each poster. I was like a 5 year old Christmas morning. Seeing each run favorable toward us and Then........... the storm arrived the let down was in full effect DRY SLOT after DRY SLOT, sleet mixing in uggg! To read some of the post was brutally depressing. Listening to radio shows the day after rip on the media was comical. It was truly amazing to go from 12-20" of snow to actually getting 5-11 and I think there were areas in Southern Oakland Cty with only 4". Overall for me it was not a bust as I ended up with 11" but overall south of me it was a HUGE LET DOWN but if you grew up SEMI you will know its not a surprise. We have grown to adapt to Winter storm busts. We are the king of several 2-4 inch events. Heres a map a couple days before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 What killed us was flake size. Most of the snow was in the form of crushed and fine dendrites. The winds aloft were literally ripping our flakes apart. Thinking that if somehow we would have managed to not have such small flakes we would have been able to pick up 3-5 more inches. I believe we had 4-6 hours of sustained winds at 30+ mph which was so cool. Not far north of metro Detroit (Saginaw / Tri cites ) They were spared of the dry slot and had a longer duration event. Drifts of 4-5 ft were reported in midland with 15-16 inches. Cant forget about the Lightning in that storm either. So cool! The media hype was justified also. When most of the guidance and general thought was a storm track further east and south we could have very easily been in the 15-20 inch zone like Saginaw. It was that NW tick or "trend" in the last few runs that threw us a curve ball. But needless to say I rank that storm at least 8 out of 10 (just for the fact of the winds). People around here did complain about the "lower" snow totals. But whatever you can't blame these non weather folks for it. I considered that storm like a test run or storm drill for the area. Because one day and (maybe soon because of the 1970s pattern we are in) we will get our 20+ event and it will shock people! Really shock people around here!! I think it was the fact the storm was so big it created a huge dry slot. Thats what killed us. Im not sure if moved that much NW. There was so much dry air that worked into the system if I can remember it actually split the system in half. from 10pm - 3am I remember we were dry slotted. At the height of the storm that makes a huge difference on our snow amount. In that time frame we lost 4-6 inches easily if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I think it was the fact the storm was so big it created a huge dry slot. Thats what killed us. Im not sure if moved that much NW. There was so much dry air that worked into the system if I can remember it actually split the system in half. from 10pm - 3am I remember we were dry slotted. At the height of the storm that makes a huge difference on our snow amount. In that time frame we lost 4-6 inches easily if not more. Seems like the dry slot is often underestimated by the models with the stronger southwest flow storms. I think we've all been victimized by last minute dry slot screwjobs at one point or the other. The stronger the storm, the worse it feels when you get "slotted" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I remember the quick thump we had the day before. It was only about an inch but it came down hard and of course led to chaos on the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 2, 2011 Author Share Posted October 2, 2011 Seems like the dry slot is often underestimated by the models with the stronger southwest flow storms. I think we've all been victimized by last minute dry slot screwjobs at one point or the other. The stronger the storm, the worse it feels when you get "slotted" lol. I remember that morning a few of us were wondering how far north it would get when the HRRR was bringing it up to around I-80 and then we got the pivot point. The dry slot did get further north with this storm then most thought and even got up to chicagoland but the convection took over when that happened and dry intrusion filled in further west. You can see it on any WV loop of the system. As far as dry slots go, Alek said it best and its one of favorite winter weather quotes "If you want the big ones, you have to gamble with the dry slot" or something close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 As far as dry slots go, Alek said it best and its one of favorite winter weather quotes "If you want the big ones, you have to gamble with the dry slot" or something close to that. Yep, good point. The edge of where the dry slot reaches is usually the sweet spot where you get the pivot point. Another sweet spot often seems to occur further to the left of the heaviest band in the mid-level frontogenesis zone. This was also the case with the GHD storm where a very heavy band of snow stalled over eastern Iowa for much of that evening. This type of feature is often VERY undermodeled and can quickly bump an advisory event into a warning event. Ratios are usually higher the further left of the track you get as well which only aids this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 2, 2011 Author Share Posted October 2, 2011 Yep, good point. The edge of where the dry slot reaches is usually the sweet spot where you get the pivot point. Another sweet spot often seems to occur further to the left of the heaviest band in the mid-level frontogenesis zone. This was also the case with the GHD storm where a very heavy band of snow stalled over eastern Iowa for much of that evening. This type of feature is often VERY undermodeled and can quickly bump an advisory event into a warning event. Ratios are usually higher the further left of the track you get as well which only aids this feature. Yep, usually the deeper DGZ's are in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 I think it was the fact the storm was so big it created a huge dry slot. Thats what killed us. Im not sure if moved that much NW. There was so much dry air that worked into the system if I can remember it actually split the system in half. from 10pm - 3am I remember we were dry slotted. At the height of the storm that makes a huge difference on our snow amount. In that time frame we lost 4-6 inches easily if not more. Dry slot was the kicker. Underestimated per usual by the models. I tried to rationalize the slot away by the fact that the models were progging the 850/700 mb track to be at worst (ie, as far north as) over Lk Erie, but when a storm is rapidly occluding like that one, it seems the slot can surge up the right side of the low pressure area. Amazing what a let down it was here. Generally 4-7, maybe 8" in some spots. That's usually a decent storm in my books, but the preceding hype really made it hurt. And I'm not big on getting sucked in on hype, but with the models averaging 0.80-1.20" QPF for 4 days straight, forecasts of 8-14" were more than conceivable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 5, 2011 Author Share Posted October 5, 2011 The heavy LES band that came through here during the morning hours A sounding Hoosier posted for LAF showing one hell of an inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I think it was the fact the storm was so big it created a huge dry slot. Thats what killed us. Im not sure if moved that much NW. There was so much dry air that worked into the system if I can remember it actually split the system in half. from 10pm - 3am I remember we were dry slotted. At the height of the storm that makes a huge difference on our snow amount. In that time frame we lost 4-6 inches easily if not more. The NW tick most def introduced the dry slot further north into lower semi..that slight jog is what killed us and brought about the dry slot also the crushing effect of flake size. Believe or not it was Rich Lutterman who called this storm perfectly 2 days before..he was calling for 8-12 while everyone else was in the 20 inch range. He spoke about a jog NW that would bring about a decrease in overall snow totals. I disagree with that storm being called a bust..Its not often you get to see sustained blizzard conditions like we had. DMC your too hard on this areas weather and climo. We get awesome snowstorms and severe weather every year. But I see your frustration with the lack of a 20 inch monster. Although I really dont think we will ever see that because we have no Lake influence or Ocean. 15-17 is tops around here. The 26 inch 1890s Blizzard is what it is...a once in a 200 year system..Most likely the sweetest triple phaser that if happened today would cause us weather geeks to blush and pass out.. Sparty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sweet it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 La Salle, Illinois We measured winds of 58 mph at one point and that wasn't the highest that we felt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 'twas a wicked storm. Unfortunately this storm didn't deliver near the results the valentines day blizzard of 2007 did, here in champaign we got rocked with 16 inches of snow and 45 mph winds., and extremely brutal arctic air followed it. Weren't some models spitting out 30 inch snowfalls for Chicago metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sweet it was what an awesome vis sat image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 'twas a wicked storm. Unfortunately this storm didn't deliver near the results the valentines day blizzard of 2007 did, here in champaign we got rocked with 16 inches of snow and 45 mph winds., and extremely brutal arctic air followed it. Weren't some models spitting out 30 inch snowfalls for Chicago metro? Various runs were showing 2"+ qpf around Chicago, which with decent ratios would've suggested 30". I'm not sure what the actual precip total was. That storm was pure insanity. I remember going with a wide range of 20-30" for ORD to try to account for potentially higher ratios. Seems absurd to suggest but one could argue that the snow aspect was a slight letdown there relative to model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Various runs were showing 2"+ qpf around Chicago, which with decent ratios would've suggested 30". I'm not sure what the actual precip total was. That storm was pure insanity. I remember going with a wide range of 20-30" for ORD to try to account for potentially higher ratios. Seems absurd to suggest but one could argue that the snow aspect was a slight letdown there relative to model output. A few of the amped NAM runs were spitting out 2.25" liquid for here, unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Various runs were showing 2"+ qpf around Chicago, which with decent ratios would've suggested 30". I'm not sure what the actual precip total was. That storm was pure insanity. I remember going with a wide range of 20-30" for ORD to try to account for potentially higher ratios. Seems absurd to suggest but one could argue that the snow aspect was a slight letdown there relative to model output. The RPM run that showed several 30"+ amounts was the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 GHD was the first time my school had ever canceled school the night before. Even though it may not have quite lived up to it in MI, the hype that it generated was ridiculous. I remember I was in a computers class the day before and half of the computers had to have been weather.com. Including the teacher. I went to Buffalo Wild Wings that night for dinner and they actually had a TV that was tuned into the weather channel. Same here. It was also my first (and likely only) snow day in college. Have one more year to perhaps seek a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The RPM run that showed several 30"+ amounts was the best. damn that sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 damn that sleet Sigh...yeah. For some reason I'm not bitter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Sigh...yeah. For some reason I'm not bitter though. Me either. I think it would've been worse if we had rain. I feel like we had a worthwhile experience even though it wasn't nearly as good as the snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Me either. I think it would've been worse if we had rain. I feel like we had a worthwhile experience even though it wasn't nearly as good as the snowstorm. Couldn't have said it better myself. Plus two historic snowstorms in a four year period would've been too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Myself, Chi Town Wx and retired LOT forecaster Paul Merzlock are most likely going to be giving our talk Monday November 28th for whoever around here would like to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 The RPM run that showed several 35"+ amounts was the best. fixed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 fixed lol My dad saw that on CLTV and thought they were going to have roof failure. I had to talk him down and tell him it wasn't going to be that bad. lol, good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 My dad saw that on CLTV and thought they were going to have roof failure. I had to talk him down and tell him it wasn't going to be that bad. lol, good times. I remember that image was all over facebook in a matter of minutes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 A few of the amped NAM runs were spitting out 2.25" liquid for here, unreal. ORD ended up with 1.57" liquid and 21.2" snow for a 13.5:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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