forkyfork Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 every model now has a closed low in some form to our west while the western atlantic ridge builds. we've seen that before. gfs bufkit for friday at ewr: weak cape, weak directional shear, and a saturated atmosphere are all ingredients for heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 other things to consider: we are in an area of difluent thicknesses there's a front with inverted isobars K indices are in the mid 30's friday evening favorable jet positioning there's a tropical connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Definitely agree with you.... PWs are close to 2 inches and there is a large scale deep southerly flow.. The Jet positioning looks pretty good too... espeically late Friday though the first part of Saturday.. could be a lot training with this rain as the flow is essentially the same direction at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 the models have been extremely inconsistent with the positioning of the ull which certainly doesn't add any confidence to the situation. the general idea of the upper low cutting off seems to be gaining credence, however. until yesterday some medium range guidance had the ull as far west as the plains states. it will be interesting to see where it does ultimately set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 the euro is coming in wetter than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 the euro is coming in wetter than 0z Yes......euro is 3 to 4 inches of rain for the area. Most of that falling friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 closed UA trof to our west. Deep S flow aloft/sfc. Yea, Pretty simple big rain chances. An extended period of rain is a lock. Good thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Please please do not send this our way in upstate NY. It could be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 NYC needs 2.59" to reach 8" for the month...If it happens it will be the second time August and September had 8" or more of rainfall...1933 is the other year...It almost happened in 1971... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Just what we need more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 HPC update. No drought in the near future for the northeast, thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 simply awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 simply awful excellent scientific post, too bad we all can't be like you, or should I say thank god we are entering a period where the jet stream is going to begin diving southward and we begin to see northern stream action, its time to face the facts. The idea that we had a wet "dry season" probably means that we will continue to run above average rainfall through the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Their recently updated map has (luckily) sliced totals down to 2-3"+ for the area, which would still be completely unneeded but not as bad as that forecasts would imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 This weather sucks. Here its cool, cloudy and damp. But where is the rain? Its not even raining. Just miserable. Conducive to workinng during the day and napping after work. thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 What a suprise, or not, the NAM is coming in significantly wetter for the second run in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I'd much rather the cool than the muggy humid disgusting air out there right now in the city and west. This weather sucks. Here its cool, cloudy and damp. But where is the rain? Its not even raining. Just miserable. Conducive to workinng during the day and napping after work. thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 pretty nice day today, feels like summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I'd much rather the cool than the muggy humid disgusting air out there right now in the city and west. The humidity has been disgusting the last couple days. Everything is so damp and sticky and I just feel unclean in this nastiness. I miss that cold spell from last week that felt glorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The 12z GFS has about 2-4" of rainfall over the next 7 days, with two sepearte times to focus on. The heaviest rain looks to fall just west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Their recently updated map has (luckily) sliced totals down to 2-3"+ for the area, which would still be completely unneeded but not as bad as that forecasts would imply. I'm not so sure an unlucky area wont see that 5+ inch deluge out of this. Pwaters over 2 inches from later Friday into early Saturday on the nam bufkits, and around 2 inches on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 The WV loop shows that the tropical connection has already been established, all the way to the Gulf of Mexico, and you can really feel it outside. You don't need to the models to tell you that its a favorable setup for excessive rainfall. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Most of the models were calling for rain all week and most places have seen less than .10. I'm still not convinced we see much outside of tomorrow into Sat morning. The 12z GFS has about 2-4" of rainfall over the next 7 days, with two sepearte times to focus on. The heaviest rain looks to fall just west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 18z NAM is a kick in the balls through 60hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Most of the models were calling for rain all week and most places have seen less than .10. I'm still not convinced we see much outside of tomorrow into Sat morning. .51" since last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 its funny..the forecast has been rain every day..and i have seen none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Dewpoints in the 70s, utterly disgusting outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Dewpoints in the 70s, utterly disgusting outside I agree. Good riddance to this crap. I can't wait till it's gone and we don't see it again until next summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 its funny..the forecast has been rain every day..and i have seen none. These 2 days (Wed. and Thurs.) were always supposed to be hit or miss showery. Models have been keying in on the Fri-Sat timeframe for heavy, more widespread periods of rain since earlier this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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