usedtobe Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Wow on the Ray stuff, funny. Models are swaying on QPF placement as usual. The SREFS still look juicy, GEFS backed off some although there is still some pretty good -SD. Timing of individual SW's and convective elements will be key. Surface destabilization with sun also will be interesting. I like Ray or I wouldn't have said it. lol. Yep, it makes for a really tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Friday and Saturday certainly look wet, but it's really anomalous (at least imo) to have such a strong closed ULL actually retrograde to KDSM, this time of year. It seems to me that once it does move west, the airmass sort of dries out a bit and the pipeline of moisture weakens a bit. Also the big low to the north of New England perhaps causes enough wnw flow to limit the tropical transport north...especially Monday and Tuesday. Afterwards, the ULL starts to wobble east and the plume once again gets reinvigorated just off shore. That might be when any weak low might form and facilitate more heavy rains into SNE. Like you said, it's certainly not clear cut, but worth watching I suppose. The NAM has been trying to generate a weak warm core system over the waters well south of SNE this weekend. Saturday looks dry except for a few showers..Maybe some lingering rain over ENE in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Saturday looks dry except for a few showers..Maybe some lingering rain over ENE in the morning I don't know...looks damp to me. Even if it's not raining..it will likely be cloudy and/or drizzle. Maybe the permanent sun over Fairfield CT will try to help out you guys, but doubt it. I just hope my game tomorrow night won't be rained out. If it is, maybe we can play it Saturday. Fully expecting to be made fun of tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 12z GFS still showing a lot of rains over the SNE through the middle of next week. First batch comes tomorrow in Sat. followed by more Tues. into Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 partly sunny here now...upper 70's and muggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 12z GFS still showing a lot of rains over the SNE through the middle of next week. First batch comes tomorrow in Sat. followed by more Tues. into Wed. Can you post total precipitation map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 12z GFS still showing a lot of rains over the SNE through the middle of next week. First batch comes tomorrow in Sat. followed by more Tues. into Wed. Just saw it.. its around 2" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 WV loop says a lot, and there is already a major tropical connection with moisture streaming up from the Gulf of Mexico. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 WV loop says a lot, and there is already a major tropical connection with moisture streaming up from the Gulf of Mexico. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html If its gonna be crappy for the next week.. might as well make it historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 If its gonna be crappy for the next week.. might as well make it historic Don't need any historic rains, We will save it for the snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Don't need any historic rains, We will save it for the snow... Would this pattern in the winter be good for snow, or mixed precipitation? This weather is boring now. No sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Would this pattern in the winter be good for snow, or mixed precipitation? This weather is boring now. No sun. you probably wouldn't get this type of system in the winter due to the position of the polar jet ect. but we have had some major blizzards with a cut off low over the TN Valley, 96 sticks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 you probably wouldn't get this type of system in the winter due to the position of the polar jet ect. but we have had some major blizzards with a cut off low over the TN Valley, 96 sticks out. Right... but one has to take into consideration where this moisture is coming from... if it screams up from the S or SW, in winter, it's only a matter of time until the majority of SNE mixes and flips over to rain. Hopefully there would be enough cold air in place to allow for a great front-end dump, ending with a thin crust on top as the dry slot comes in and we have only a period of drizzle, not a downpour once things warm up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Would this pattern in the winter be good for snow, or mixed precipitation? This weather is boring now. No sun. That would be an overunning event with a snow/sleet/rain depending on location, Typically that would pump in warmer air from the south, So lattitude would play a large roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Right... but one has to take into consideration where this moisture is coming from... if it screams up from the S or SW, in winter, it's only a matter of time until the majority of SNE mixes and flips over to rain. Hopefully there would be enough cold air in place to allow for a great front-end dump, ending with a thin crust on top as the dry slot comes in and we have only a period of drizzle, not a downpour once things warm up... Strong high pressure over quebec would be key.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 what awful wx currently. horrible... horrible day in general. Drinking Stella at 2:25. Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Up to just under 0.5" on the day now at TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 what awful wx currently. horrible... horrible day in general. Drinking Stella at 2:25. Pathetic. Nice! Hopefully it's not THAT awful tonight, as I'm headed to the Big E... my hope is to stay dry!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Euro anyone? Spot 3" amounts near the CT/RI border and out in eastern PA and nw NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Spot 3" amounts near the CT/RI border and out in eastern PA and nw NJ. A ton of rain showing up on the radar in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Spot 3" amounts near the CT/RI border and out in eastern PA and nw NJ. Not bad. Is that thru next Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Looks like a cool shot over NNE towards the end of the run on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Not bad. Is that thru next Wed? Through next Thursday basically. It seems like every model run as wavered back and forth. The euro dumps on ern PA and NJ tomorrow which makes sense to me, given that the front is stalled there and a s/w moves into that region. The whole thing basically shifts east tomorrow night and Saturday, but slowly weakens. It's Tuesday through Thursday that again, offer another dose of +RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Euro anyone? No one should have to ask this anymore with the WU maps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 No one should have to ask this anymore with the WU maps out. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 For those who missed the WU Euro maps.... Bookmark this: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 No one should have to ask this anymore with the WU maps out. Unless you're on your phone like I am.. its a pain trying to scroll through model pages on a touch phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 No one should have to ask this anymore with the WU maps out. I still do not think those wunderground maps will stay free though. It goes against everything that ecmwf.int has done to this point with their data. It would be awesome if they stay free though because they are really nice maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Saturday looks dry except for a few showers..Maybe some lingering rain over ENE in the morning Better hope the Euro is wrong, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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