wxmx Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Ophelia has probably degenerated into a surface trough....dying convection is well SE, and moving away from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Naked swirl = Ophelia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Naked swirl = Ophelia. She's not even a swirl, she has an E/W elongated, broad, naked and poorly defined center. 11am will be the last advisory on her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Stewart is such a weenie. There is obviously no closed circulation on visible right now and advisories should have been dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Stewart is such a weenie. There is obviously no closed circulation on visible right now and advisories should have been dropped. Maybe he had to coax an extra few tenths of a point of ACE to help his standing in the NHC office pool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see Ophelia become a hurricane down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 remnant low now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 This year has really seen these systems struggle. I'm ready for it to be over and get on with winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Looking pretty beefy now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I think this entity has developed a new circulation :X..... I think the other one raced out ahead and died yesterday. Today its developed a new one further north and east of the other one. Still a bit lopsided to the right right though based on visible imagery. Also does not appeared to be aligned with the mid-level rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 The ECMWF appears to have scored a coup here, despite its solution being flatly discounted by the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/al16/al162011.discus.019.shtml? In general it's amazing how good the better models are. I think this entity has developed a new circulation :X..... I think the other one raced out ahead and died yesterday. Today its developed a new one further north and east of the other one. Still a bit lopsided to the right right though based on visible imagery. Also does not appeared to be aligned with the mid-level rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Ophelia looks impressive this evening, shear has relaxed and outflow being established in all quadrants, best looking non tropical depression of the year in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Wow ECWMF has done a 180 from all previous modeling now now makes the system a formidable hurricane out around 96-120 hours. While I'm not ready to believe this yet, it does appear a new circulation is developing under the convection under a more favorable environment than where the previous vorticity was centered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 It can get up to 160 kt for all I care-- it's another fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 It can get up to 160 kt for all I care-- it's another fish. I try not to spatially discriminate I'm only slightly biased towards landfalling storms mainly because they provide us with a wealth of information (recon, surface obs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I try not to spatially discriminate I'm only slightly biased towards landfalling storms mainly because they provide us with a wealth of information (recon, surface obs). Well, I discriminate. And I've just about had it. P.S. I see Adam lurking. He's been awful quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Well, I discriminate. And I've just about had it. P.S. I see Adam lurking. He's been awful quiet. I was sick today, but I agree with Phil's analysis. Should become a moderate/strong TS later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I was sick today, but I agree with Phil's analysis. Should become a moderate/strong TS later this week. Oh. Well I hope ya feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 It's been cherried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg Lookin' pretty impressive on ir and on vis. Bet advisories are back up on it in the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 I find it entertaining that Hurricane wind probabilities are showing up for Ophelia in Philippe's maps despite Ophelia not even being classified right now. Other than that, Bermuda may have to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 27, 2011 Author Share Posted September 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 That's a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 That's a TS Probably, but it's quite sheared. LLC is partially naked in the NW edge of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 A tad OT, but what happened to her old circulation. Hypothetically, if it survived and regenerated after this new circulation took the name Ophelia, would NHC give the old circulation a new name? PS: The fact that I am asking a question about re-naming naked swirls speaks volumes about this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 27, 2011 Author Share Posted September 27, 2011 Two recons scheduled tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Looking at the upper cloud motions it doesn't appear to be that sheared; it seems more that it's just in the initial organizing phase, i.e, convection lining up with the center of circulation and vice versa. Probably, but it's quite sheared. LLC is partially naked in the NW edge of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Elongated LLC is effectively in the NW edge of the convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Elongated LLC is effectively in the NW edge of the convection Perhaps, but looking at the visible satellite imagery, it looks like there is a new, robust at least mid-level circulation developing much more under the convection, say around 18N, 59W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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