12z euro rapid fire updates

[WxUSAF]

Euro hasn't budged. GFS is trash, throw it out.

You can believe whatever you want, but I'm riding the DGEX and P003 of the GFS Ensembles thank you very much

[Radders]

hr 120 looks like flooding rains in New England.. 0 850 line cuts straight down the center of NY State with freezing line lagging further west... Looks like even wrap around snows could be a struggle at best for the I95 crew and even those immediately north and west of the big cities.

At 126, the precip lightens and ends from west to east, freezing line still hanging back west of the catskills running north to south.

[LakeEffectKing]

Euro hasn't budged. GFS is trash, throw it out.

Neither has the UKMET.

[tombo82685]

sne into nne get 1-3 inches of rain...phl nyc dc get .75-1.5 of rain

[PhineasC]

Neither has the UKMET.

I firmly believe the Euro is a better model, especially when it doesn't waver.

[Radders]

This euro run doesn't even sound like it gets cold after the storm passes. It would be much warmer overall if the storm takes the euros track, both in front of and behind the storm. No teens for lows in the city if the euro is correct.

At 144, the euro is showing 522 thickness across the tri-state area versus the GFS, which has bordering on 504 thickness. So definitely not as brutal as the GFS in terms of cold.

[tombo82685]

euro has backed of a tiny bit on the cold only brings in 516 thickness into the midatl

[usedtobe]

You can believe whatever you want, but I'm riding the DGEX and P003 of the GFS Ensembles thank you very much

It doesn't matter much which model wins for us in the DC area and any solution between that of the GFS (rains maybe with a brief, very brief period of snow) and the Euro, would be all rain scenarios. My question about the DGEX, isn't it still a barotropic extension and if so, why would anyone even look at it.

[psuhoffman]

I firmly believe the Euro is a better model, especially when it doesn't waver.

so the 0z euro last night wasn't a waver?

[NEXtreme]

At 144, the euro is showing 522 thickness across the tri-state area versus the GFS, which has bordering on 504 thickness. So definitely not as brutal as the GFS in terms of cold.

Yeah just like the low 40's it was showing last week for this week in NYC area, lol

[SnoSki14]

euro has backed of a tiny bit on the cold only brings in 516 thickness into the midatl

Meaning lows wouldn't get into the teens for the big cities.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I firmly believe the Euro is a better model, especially when it doesn't waver.

Well, it sure looks like we're gonna find out. This is about as far apart as they could get.

[stormtracker]

Some slight track differences between the Euro and the GFS in my professional opinion

I'm not sure I've ever seen them this far apart. But if I had to chose a camp, I'd go with the Euro

[ag3]

Euro hasn't budged. GFS is trash, throw it out.

Didn't 0z euro have the low hundreds of miles east and at the tip of LI?

[tombo82685]

Meaning lows wouldn't get into the teens for the big cities.

with this run, correct prob 20-25, highs below frz

[SnoSki14]

with this run, correct prob 20-25, highs below frz

That's versus the gfs which gets the city down to 13F and has highs in the mid 20s.

[WxUSAF]

It doesn't matter much which model wins for us in the DC area and any solution between that of the GFS (rains maybe with a brief, very brief period of snow) and the Euro, would be all rain scenarios. My question about the DGEX, isn't it still a barotropic extension and if so, why would anyone even look at it.

Just playing

[tombo82685]

some lgt precip from the m/d line north from a retrograding low towards maine and nova scotia

[psuhoffman]

I'm not sure I've ever seen them this far apart. But if I had to chose a camp, I'd go with the Euro

I hope some weenie doesn't mininterpret this to mean I think we will get a big snow in the 95 corridor but I might side with the UK/GFS camp a little more this time around. Its mostly just a hunch but I seem to remember from my days at the PSU Hazleton weather station that the euro has a bias of over phasing the streams over NA. Perhaps this has been corrected but if not this would seem to play into its known bias. FOr DC of course it might not make much difference, a few flakes versus no flakes perhaps.

[tombo82685]

That's versus the gfs which gets the city down to 13F and has highs in the mid 20s.

the highs are still prob 25-30

[usedtobe]

Just playing

I know but you probably fanned the weenie flames. They tend to look for optimism except the bipolar ones who swing both ways.

[tombo82685]

hr 180 has the lgt precip from dc north from that retrograding low with some mod preciip into maine

[SnoSki14]

All in all, no matter what track the storm follows, whether it be the euro or the gfs, the end result will be very similar. The biggest differences will be the extent and strength of the cold after the storm passes (the euro would have highs and lows at least 5-8 degrees warmer than the gfs, if not 10+ degrees warmer vs the gfs) and maybe some wraparound snows up to 1" on the gfs run.

[tombo82685]

hr 186 has lgt to mod precip over eastern sne and nh,vt, and central and southern maine

[Quasievil]

This setup for us is hideous ... goes negative way too early, etc. but I'm curious to see which model is the winner. Anyone want to place bets?

[usedtobe]

I'm not sure I've ever seen them this far apart. But if I had to chose a camp, I'd go with the Euro

Randy, the answer probably is somewhere in between but for us it hardly matters. The lack of any good blocking and the deep southerly winds in advance of the storm make me think the GFS is too far east but this year at some of the longer ranges, the euro has overamplified things (remember the 144 rh clipper we were supposed to get). Anyway. The forecasts from PIT to CHI are really problematical. Glad I don't have to make a snow forecast for that area.

[mattinpa]

or the ones who are intelligent to know better!!!

I'd call a couple inches of snow for some areas compared to no snow significant - if you look at the GFS snow map, there's a burst of snow for the MA.

[NJwinter23]

Randy, the answer probably is somewhere in between but for us it hardly matters. The lack of any good blocking and the deep southerly winds in advance of the storm make me think the GFS is too far west but this year at some of the longer ranges, the euro has overamplified things (remember the 144 rh clipper we were supposed to get). Anyway. The forecasts from PIT to CHI are really problematical. Glad I don't have to make a snow forecast for that area.

..Tell me about it.

If you factor in a se bias with the gfs at this range, consider that the euro has waffled the past 3 runs and is furthest west then the ukmet and what not, I'd definitely agree that somewhere near the middle of the 12z gfs/euro is most likely at this point. Even that solution would take out the small hope of changing to brief snow on the backend for the big cities.

[mdsnowlover]

I know but you probably fanned the weenie flames. They tend to look for optimism except the bipolar ones who swing both ways.

wes, there are some of us who are intelligent enough to know the difference.

[LakeEffectKing]

All in all, no matter what track the storm follows, whether it be the euro or the gfs, the end result will be very similar. The biggest differences will be the extent and strength of the cold after the storm passes (the euro would have highs and lows at least 5-8 degrees warmer than the gfs, if not 10+ degrees warmer vs the gfs) and maybe some wraparound snows up to 1" on the gfs run.

Please remember, you are in a thread now that is in the General forums. The Euro and GFS will not produce similar results for everybody reading here.....Thanks.