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Central PA Fall Thread II


JamieOber

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And here we go again accuweather mentioning possible flood threat yet again. http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2011/300x200_10041534_tropics%20renew.jpg

Still Alot of model disagreement it could even go in to the gulf. But one thing is for sure we do not need a system Like this as they can bring several inches of rain and flood out areas that are still recovering from Lee's heavy rain fall. Something to watch over the next week or so.

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And here we go again accuweather mentioning possible flood threat yet again. http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2011/300x200_10041534_tropics%20renew.jpg

Still Alot of model disagreement it could even go in to the gulf. But one thing is for sure we do not need a system Like this as they can bring several inches of rain and flood out areas that are still recovering from Lee's heavy rain fall. Something to watch over the next week or so.

See that potential on the GFS - goes w/o saying that's the last thing we need.

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From CTP this morning...ugh:

MEDIUM RANGE MDL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ALL INDICATE THE STRONG UPPERRIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS S/WVENERGY DIVING SEWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EVENTUALLY CARVESOUT A LW TROUGH OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS WITH AN AXIS INVOF THE MSRVR. THIS PATTERN COULD POTENTIALLY FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTBY NEXT WEEKEND WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AND A WIDE-OPEN GOMEX/WRN ATLC.

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Today's the type of day in the fall where you open the windows in the afternoon to warm UP the house. :)

BTW, I need to paint some thresholds around the house (they're wood). Anyone know if it'd be OK to do so when the highs get up the upper 60s and lows in the low 40s? I'm looking to do this Saturday morning, so it'll have the day to set. But I'm not a painter ...

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Today's the type of day in the fall where you open the windows in the afternoon to warm UP the house. :)

BTW, I need to paint some thresholds around the house (they're wood). Anyone know if it'd be OK to do so when the highs get up the upper 60s and lows in the low 40s? I'm looking to do this Saturday morning, so it'll have the day to set. But I'm not a painter ...

Paint them as early in the day as you can so they dry. you should be fine this week.

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I for one am SHOCKED AccuWeather placed the "stormy and cold" swatch right over the section that contains the most populated areas of the United States.

SHOCKED!

I am shocked they highlighted lake effect snow downwind of the great lakes lol... please tell me I'm not the only one who looked at their forecast and thought "well duh the potential is there for that every winter".... they try to play it off as a brutal winter but its not much different than normal

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I for one am SHOCKED AccuWeather placed the "stormy and cold" swatch right over the section that contains the most populated areas of the United States.

SHOCKED!

Normally I would be psyched to be under "worst of winter/stormy and cold" but meh...it's accuwx. Does anyone have their forecasts from the last several years memorized/saved? I don't want to bash them too hard without seeing their forecasts from years past and how they stacked up (because living in the South I didn't exactly follow their MA/NE-biased forecasts too well).

Anyone see frost potential for the State College area? Looks to be a few degrees too warm, but still a bit of a close call.

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Normally I would be psyched to be under "worst of winter/stormy and cold" but meh...it's accuwx. Does anyone have their forecasts from the last several years memorized/saved? I don't want to bash them too hard without seeing their forecasts from years past and how they stacked up (because living in the South I didn't exactly follow their MA/NE-biased forecasts too well).

Anyone see frost potential for the State College area? Looks to be a few degrees too warm, but still a bit of a close call.

for last two winters...

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/34891/winter-2011-heavier-snow-for-c.asp

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/21068/accuweather-winter-forecast-via-jb-1.asp

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<br><br>In the grand scheme of things, these previous two winter forecasts are not really that bad overall. The 09/10 one in particular was a good forecast, last years had some issues. JB's overall ideas last winter (big thaw in January) got delayed/derailed due to the return of the super negative NAO/AO that dominated 09/10 and further delayed into mid Feb by a strong +PNA regime when the NAO/AO started to neutralize. ENSO climo (moderate/strong La Nina) would have argued for the fast start and thaw last winter, but the teleconnections obviously had the upper hand in that battle for a long stretch of last winter. That's also something I would keep an eye on for this winter. I don't anticipate seeing much of the ridiculous negative NAO/AO, which I think may be a good thing this winter since the ENSO will be more neutral this year and hence less of a major influence on the local weather. We had a couple big storms the last couple winters, but we've also missed on several more because things were too shunted too far southeast. Anyways, Accuwx's forecast for this winter seems OK. Take away the superlatives (Brutal Snow and Cold) and it looks more or less like a more typical winter pattern. On the other hand, our active wet weather pattern of this late summer/fall could continue into this winter. It'll be interesting to see how their winter forecast does, remember that they no longer have JB as a major say in it.
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Temperatures across the region this afternoon. I, for one, am looking forward to some Indian Summer.

post-1389-0-35831700-1317756398.png

Source: maps.wxjoe.com

Kickass map!!! I love it. Have you been experimenting with different types of maps since you work with GIS? I'm going to have to check out your site, I hope you post more of these. If its not to much to ask, I have two suggestions if its ok with you but don't be mad at me. The temperatures between 40-60°F are heard to distinguish since the colors blend on the same color scale and is there a set determined color for 32°F because I think that would be a good eye catcher. Everything else is amazing, great detail.

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