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Central PA Fall Thread II

JamieOber

By JamieOber,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Amazing pictures everyone I go up to that area often Unbelievable to see snow like that on 322 this early. I am sure the camp I belong to and am a part of which up about 2000 feet got a good coating this morning right off of 350 near sandy ridge. always seams to change over there sooner. wounder if we are headed to a 2009 repeat for central pa? (for those who don't remember a Nor'easter brought several inches of wet snow and many trees came down in state college in late October)

Haha i'm sure the State College folks in here won't soon forget that one. Just when you think you've seen something you think won't be topped for a very long time you end up with what happened last night/this morning. This one is more insane with regards to it simply being the very beginning of October and it somehow managed to snow and lay. The October 15/16, 2009 snowfall's calling card was the fact that the heaviest snowfall was actually off the high ground and the Centre region was in the crosshairs of the highest totals. The totals were much higher as well.

I still can't get it over that this actually happened so early. The euro run I mentioned in here a couple days ago ended up being pretty close to right thermally and QPF wise. Given how anomalously deep this low was (record territory), I def expected to see the flakes flying in the Laurels. I didn't think we'd see enough precip with the system to see any widespread accums, but the insanity of this year rolls on. I would wager if this event happened towards the end of the month we'd have been talking about a more widespread snow event for folks in the central counties off of the Laurels.

As for what this means as we go forward into winter, its hard to say. I haven't really looked hard into things yet in terms of teleconnections, ENSO, and all that stuff. I don't see anything that really concerns me about the winter being overly ridiculous in any fashion (cold, warm, dry, snowy) as of yet. I do like the overall pattern as of late to perhaps be a potential precursor to a wintertime version. I can think of a few recent winters with October flakes that yielded a decent winter. 2009 is the most recent example of course, with 2003 being another year. I also remember the event in late October 2005 (deep system with some influence from Hurricane Wilma) that made for an event similar to this weekends. 2005/06 though, with the exception of the 2006 blizzard for some of our easternmost guys, was very lackluster for this area. So, time will tell. In the meantime, i'm going to enjoy the fact I saw snow before 80% of the leaves even turned colors and hope for a bit of Indian Summer and dry weather.

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jm1220

jm1220

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Haha i'm sure the State College folks in here won't soon forget that one. Just when you think you've seen something you think won't be topped for a very long time you end up with what happened last night/this morning. This one is more insane with regards to it simply being the very beginning of October and it somehow managed to snow and lay. The October 15/16, 2009 snowfall's calling card was the fact that the heaviest snowfall was actually off the high ground and the Centre region was in the crosshairs of the highest totals. The totals were much higher as well.

I still can't get it over that this actually happened so early. The euro run I mentioned in here a couple days ago ended up being pretty close to right thermally and QPF wise. Given how anomalously deep this low was (record territory), I def expected to see the flakes flying in the Laurels. I didn't think we'd see enough precip with the system to see any widespread accums, but the insanity of this year rolls on. I would wager if this event happened towards the end of the month we'd have been talking about a more widespread snow event for folks in the central counties off of the Laurels.

As for what this means as we go forward into winter, its hard to say. I haven't really looked hard into things yet in terms of teleconnections, ENSO, and all that stuff. I don't see anything that really concerns me about the winter being overly ridiculous in any fashion (cold, warm, dry, snowy) as of yet. I do like the overall pattern as of late to perhaps be a potential precursor to a wintertime version. I can think of a few recent winters with October flakes that yielded a decent winter. 2009 is the most recent example of course, with 2003 being another year. I also remember the event in late October 2005 (deep system with some influence from Hurricane Wilma) that made for an event similar to this weekends. 2005/06 though, with the exception of the 2006 blizzard for some of our easternmost guys, was very lackluster for this area. So, time will tell. In the meantime, i'm going to enjoy the fact I saw snow before 80% of the leaves even turned colors and hope for a bit of Indian Summer and dry weather.

That was an awesome storm for State College, the 10/25/05 event. It dropped a few inches at least on grassy/cold surfaces and an inch or two on roads. I remember a lot of trees bending and limbs breaking as well. I walked into a 9am class that day in a cold, dreary rain and walked out in a heavy snow and ground covered in white. Too bad the winter turned out atrocious, after the 12/8 event dropped about 8 inches on State College. Central PA is obviously massively overdue for a huge winter, so maybe this year can finally break the curse. A big cutoff system like this in February would've likely been a 1-2 footer for much of the area.

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stormspotterlive

stormspotterlive

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Haha i'm sure the State College folks in here won't soon forget that one. Just when you think you've seen something you think won't be topped for a very long time you end up with what happened last night/this morning. This one is more insane with regards to it simply being the very beginning of October and it somehow managed to snow and lay. The October 15/16, 2009 snowfall's calling card was the fact that the heaviest snowfall was actually off the high ground and the Centre region was in the crosshairs of the highest totals. The totals were much higher as well.

I still can't get it over that this actually happened so early. The euro run I mentioned in here a couple days ago ended up being pretty close to right thermally and QPF wise. Given how anomalously deep this low was (record territory), I def expected to see the flakes flying in the Laurels. I didn't think we'd see enough precip with the system to see any widespread accums, but the insanity of this year rolls on. I would wager if this event happened towards the end of the month we'd have been talking about a more widespread snow event for folks in the central counties off of the Laurels.

As for what this means as we go forward into winter, its hard to say. I haven't really looked hard into things yet in terms of teleconnections, ENSO, and all that stuff. I don't see anything that really concerns me about the winter being overly ridiculous in any fashion (cold, warm, dry, snowy) as of yet. I do like the overall pattern as of late to perhaps be a potential precursor to a wintertime version. I can think of a few recent winters with October flakes that yielded a decent winter. 2009 is the most recent example of course, with 2003 being another year. I also remember the event in late October 2005 (deep system with some influence from Hurricane Wilma) that made for an event similar to this weekends. 2005/06 though, with the exception of the 2006 blizzard for some of our easternmost guys, was very lackluster for this area. So, time will tell. In the meantime, i'm going to enjoy the fact I saw snow before 80% of the leaves even turned colors and hope for a bit of Indian Summer and dry weather.

From everything I have looked at and data I have seen this is setting up to be a very hard to predict type winter. Some Indications that there maybe warming mid winter but at the same time I have seen statements against that Idea. I would have to agree that state college is over do for a major snowy winter past few have featured Alot of ice. One occasion I was up in the area for an ice fishing trip last winter during the first week of February and a mix to rain event turned out being a mini ice storm. The one thing that does interest me right now is after this warm up as we get closer to the end of the month seen hints of a large cool down with the possibly of a storm. For what it is worth the CFS model (Climate Forecasting System) had a very cold end to the month a few weeks ago weather or not it still has it I have not checked but the GFS by the end of its run has cold air building in the mid west. We all know how accurate the end of the GFS is basically me trying to predict the 4th of July for nest year. But something to think about and Interesting to see the 2 agree. Still aways out but if all was to work out nicely could be a nice early season rain to snow event for central pa.

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djr5001

djr5001

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Amazing pictures everyone I go up to that area often Unbelievable to see snow like that on 322 this early. I am sure the camp I belong to and am a part of which up about 2000 feet got a good coating this morning right off of 350 near sandy ridge. always seams to change over there sooner. wounder if we are headed to a 2009 repeat for central pa? (for those who don't remember a Nor'easter brought several inches of wet snow and many trees came down in state college in late October)

It was PSU's homecoming weekend too. I remember driving on I-99 and the weather turning from a light rain to a winter wonderland in just a couple miles. I managed to get a ticket to the game for $10 because it was so cold and snowy no one wanted to go (plus tailgating was cancelled due to snow in the lots). I have pictures somewhere of some of the downed trees on campus. I'll post a few later if I can find them. The trees still had leaves so the wet snow was too much for some of them to handle.

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djr5001

djr5001

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The storm you guys speak of, isn't that when the pocono's got rocked we almost a foot of heavy wet snow?

from October 16, 2009 for Carbon/Monroe:

"EPISODE NARRATIVE: A nor'easter brought an early season measurable snow to the Poconos from the morning of the 15th into the morning of the 16th. Accumulations ranged from less than three inches in the valleys to around six inches over the higher terrain. The weight of the snow plus leaves still on trees caused scattered power outages in the higher terrain. According to Pocono weather expert Meteorologist Ben Gelber this was the earliest heaviest snow in the Poconos since 1836. Around an inch of snow also accumulated during a heavier snow burst over the higher terrain of Lehigh and Northampton Counties during the afternoon of the 15th, Snow began falling during the morning of the 15th in the higher terrain and rain fell in the valleys. As the precipitation increased in intensity during the afternoon, the rain changed to snow in the valleys. Precipitation intensity became lighter in the evening as precipitation type became rain again in the valleys, the intensity increased again during the early morning of the 16th before the snow ended by 10 a.m. EDT. By then temperatures were above freezing. Because the ground was still warm, most of the accumulations occurred on non paved surfaces, bridges and overpasses as well as clinging to the trees and leaves. A few accidents were reported. Northeast winds averaged 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts on the Pocono Plateau. This was strong enough to remove some of the snow off the trees and power outages were generally confined to sheltered locations in the higher terrain. As of the morning of the 16th, less than 1,000 outages remained in Monroe County in Pocono and Chestnuthill Townships. A downed tree closed one roadway in Mahoning Township (Carbon County). Specific accumulations included 6.1 inches in Pocono Summit (Monroe County), 3.0 inches in Blue Mountain (Carbon County) and Stroudsburg (Monroe County), 2.1 inches in Palmerton (Carbon County) and 1.1 inches in Chapman (Carbon County). The nor'easter that caused the snow moved from the Tennessee Valley on the morning of the 14th to the northern North Carolina coastal waters on the morning of the 15th. It then moved northeast and by sunrise on the 16th was already southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. "

and for Cameron, Mckean, Northern Centre, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Southern Centre, Southern Clinton, Sullivan, Tioga:

"EVENT NARRATIVE: Three to six inches of heavy wet snow caused extensive damage countywide related to leaf-laden trees and limbs falling on power lines. Upwards of six inches fell across the highest elevations. EPISODE NARRATIVE: An early season heavy wet snowfall wreaked havoc across portions of northern and central Pennsylvania from the mid morning on the 15th through the late morning on the 16th. The combination of heavy wet snow and leaves on the trees made this an extremely destructive and high impact event. Most of the damage was related to large tree limbs and branches falling on homes and power lines. It is estimated that about 27,000 customers lost power. For many locations, this was the earliest snowfall ever recorded in the month of October. Snowfall totals generally ranged between 4 and 6 inches with up to 9 inches on the highest ridge-top elevations. The heaviest snow fell in a swath from central Centre County northward through Northern Clinton into Potter and Tioga Counties. "

http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms

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hckyplayer8

hckyplayer8

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I have the feeling this winter may be very bi-polar. :lightning:

laugh.gif

In the short term, things look like they settle down a bit as the entire N.H goes pretty zonal...from what we've seen lately anyways...

If we have to get Indian Summer out of our system, lets do it now before hunting season. Nothing like having to worry about ticks in the middle of Nov. axesmiley.png

test8.gif

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2001kx

2001kx

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I would love to have a 30"+ event, even if it meant that's it for the winter. Just let it hang around for a week or so before melting.

i dont know if we (clearfield) have ever had a 30+ inch event..

i think 93 was 28" (could have been 32" ) but not sure.

any way to find this out?

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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The storm you guys speak of, isn't that when the pocono's got rocked we almost a foot of heavy wet snow?

Oh yea... that one. The storm you speak of was October 26-28th, 2008. I dunno how the heck I forgot that one.. I did a GIS project on it in my cartography class back in fall 08 right after it happened. That snow event was the result of a very deep nor'easter and did dump a foot plus in the highest ground of the Pocono's. I'll share my map if I can figure out how to reduce the file size enough to allow the uploader to put it on.

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PennMan

PennMan

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Oh yea... that one. The storm you speak of was October 26-28th, 2008. I dunno how the heck I forgot that one.. I did a GIS project on it in my cartography class back in fall 08 right after it happened. That snow event was the result of a very deep nor'easter and did dump a foot plus in the highest ground of the Pocono's. I'll share my map if I can figure out how to reduce the file size enough to allow the uploader to put it on.

Yeah IIRC one of the members here, mike2010, who lives up at 2100ft in Tobyhanna had upwards of 12" from that event?

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stormspotterlive

stormspotterlive

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It was PSU's homecoming weekend too. I remember driving on I-99 and the weather turning from a light rain to a winter wonderland in just a couple miles. I managed to get a ticket to the game for $10 because it was so cold and snowy no one wanted to go (plus tailgating was cancelled due to snow in the lots). I have pictures somewhere of some of the downed trees on campus. I'll post a few later if I can find them. The trees still had leaves so the wet snow was too much for some of them to handle.

Remember that now I think they had the students actually clean the snow up in beaver stadium.

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stormspotterlive

stormspotterlive

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laugh.gif

In the short term, things look like they settle down a bit as the entire N.H goes pretty zonal...from what we've seen lately anyways...

If we have to get Indian Summer out of our system, lets do it now before hunting season. Nothing like having to worry about ticks in the middle of Nov. axesmiley.png

test8.gif

Not sure what it is this year or the past few years But I have never seen the Tick Population so high. I will be glad when they are gone for the winter. Yup next few weeks due look like an Indian summer for us. Its towards the end of the month and November that we could start seeing colder toughing taking place again. Would love to track a few early season coastal rain Inland rain to snow events this year.

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hckyplayer8

hckyplayer8

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Not sure what it is this year or the past few years But I have never seen the Tick Population so high. I will be glad when they are gone for the winter. Yup next few weeks due look like an Indian summer for us. Its towards the end of the month and November that we could start seeing colder toughing taking place again. Would love to track a few early season coastal rain Inland rain to snow events this year.

I haven't really seen an abnormal amount this year. I just want them gone when I hit the woods for deer. Small game is a given that you will encounter them.

Euro likes to overdevelop mid level heights, so thinking its prolly a bit warm for interior regions.

Think we actually break pretty close to seasonal highs for awhile. Should be nice. Finally can get out and do stuff as this rain has pushed a lot of projects off.

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NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

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Not sure what it is this year or the past few years But I have never seen the Tick Population so high. I will be glad when they are gone for the winter. Yup next few weeks due look like an Indian summer for us. Its towards the end of the month and November that we could start seeing colder toughing taking place again. Would love to track a few early season coastal rain Inland rain to snow events this year.

These have been sorely lacking. I have had enough of living on the edge! :lol:

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stormspotterlive

stormspotterlive

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I haven't really seen an abnormal amount this year. I just want them gone when I hit the woods for deer. Small game is a given that you will encounter them.

Euro likes to overdevelop mid level heights, so thinking its prolly a bit warm for interior regions.

Think we actually break pretty close to seasonal highs for awhile. Should be nice. Finally can get out and do stuff as this rain has pushed a lot of projects off.

I have tend to notice that the euro does that on many occasions while the american models like the GFS and NAM are sometimes too cool and underdo ridging. I can Fully see there being average temperatures.

The entire state could use a period of dry weather so the ground can dry and drain out a bit to erase the threat of flooding with future events. It was getting to the point in some parts of the sate that just about every event had some what of a flash flooding threat from all the rain that has fallen.

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r-ville

r-ville

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Posted

I'm in the Euro camp for the warm up/zonal flow playing out. The mean time period length for high amp/Omega pattern is well on the wane. As I had posted a few days ago, the MidWest "cutters" for lack of a better term appear to be the harbinger.

As for the ticks - I've gotten them in the cold of deer season as well - there are no guarantees this side of January/February deep freezes that you can escape those little buggers. Trust me - I tend to be a magnet for 'em.

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