Voyager Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 And if anyone at all actually sees a flake at the beginning of October, that would be very impressive. Wouldn't surprise me one bit with all of the weather anomalies we've seen so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Greetings from Victoria, British Columbia. It was 62, sunny and awesome today. I see Harrisburg had yet more heavy rain. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 30, 2011 Author Share Posted September 30, 2011 Man this bass were biting today. Caught two monster smallies. One 13 and the other 14. The 14" had to push 4 pounds. Where at? Count me as someone that has pretty decent confidence in some of the really high ground seeing flakes on Saturday/Sat night. Surprised none of you guys mentioned the 12z Euro, which does a couple things. For starters, it lingers back alot of precip compared to the other models. Hour 60 in particular is really interesting, with a closed region of <540 dm covering most of the state and a sizeable area of .25-.50" 6 hour precip. Further scrutiny shows 850 temps around -2ºC in the western half of the state and at 925 while there's no area of 0ºC.. central and western PA reside in a closed region of at or slightly below 2ºC. In short, it screams high elevation snowfall event. Unfortunately, I don't think there will be that much QPF around when things get to the point where you might start seeing flakes fly in the highest ground. Still though, I bet at least one the usual suspects sees it. And if anyone at all actually sees a flake at the beginning of October, that would be very impressive. I don't know about here, but I imagine driving up 322 would mean seeing flakes. Wouldn't surprise me one bit with all of the weather anomalies we've seen so far this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see brimstone and locusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Where at? Memorial Lake. Probably one of the top three fishing days of the season. Just every other cast for a hr and a half, I was reeling in fish in the 9-10" range, with some bigger 11"-13" thrown in. I practice catch and release 99% of the time when fishing for native fish (when fishing commission raised trout I always keep them to justify paying for the trout stamp); but being its the end of the year, and those were two really nice fish, I decided to keep them. Prolly wrap them in foil, drench a lil lemon over them and do them on the grill tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Greetings from Victoria, British Columbia. It was 62, sunny and awesome today. I see Harrisburg had yet more heavy rain. Shocking. It's certainly saying something that you had to go to Canada to get better weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Memorial Lake. Probably one of the top three fishing days of the season. Just every other cast for a hr and a half, I was reeling in fish in the 9-10" range, with some bigger 11"-13" thrown in. I practice catch and release 99% of the time when fishing for native fish (when fishing commission raised trout I always keep them to justify paying for the trout stamp); but being its the end of the year, and those were two really nice fish, I decided to keep them. Prolly wrap them in foil, drench a lil lemon over them and do them on the grill tomorrow. Thanks for that info. J-man. Rivers and streams look like crap and I was wondering about a trip to FIG and check out ML. My little bro and me still found time to do one thing together and that was trout fishing. Sadly, he was the fatality out on I-81 at Manada Exit on the 28th. I need some of that medicine that can only come from soldering on and seeing him where we made our memories. September has become a very dark month - I'm more than ready for Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 30, 2011 Author Share Posted September 30, 2011 Memorial Lake. Probably one of the top three fishing days of the season. Just every other cast for a hr and a half, I was reeling in fish in the 9-10" range, with some bigger 11"-13" thrown in. I practice catch and release 99% of the time when fishing for native fish (when fishing commission raised trout I always keep them to justify paying for the trout stamp); but being its the end of the year, and those were two really nice fish, I decided to keep them. Prolly wrap them in foil, drench a lil lemon over them and do them on the grill tomorrow. I love days like. This is the best time to fish, IMO, I've always had the best catches around now. I know that lake, fished there with my dad four times. We used to look for new places a lot and the PA Angler did a story on it and decided to go. I was 11 and caught my second musky there, a 33 inch one on a yellow one inch Mr. Twister, which was a new thing back then. I was fishing for panfish, that was a surprise. Same way on catch/release btw. Glad you had a good day and enjoy the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 30, 2011 Author Share Posted September 30, 2011 Thanks for that info. J-man. Rivers and streams look like crap and I was wondering about a trip to FIG and check out ML. My little bro and me still found time to do one thing together and that was trout fishing. Sadly, he was the fatality out on I-81 at Manada Exit on the 28th. I need some of that medicine that can only come from soldering on and seeing him where we made our memories. September has become a very dark month - I'm more than ready for Oct. I'm so sorry to hear this. I agree on the medicine. Part of my heritage is Eastern Band Cherokee (grandmother was full) and learned medicine comes in many forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Thanks for that info. J-man. Rivers and streams look like crap and I was wondering about a trip to FIG and check out ML. My little bro and me still found time to do one thing together and that was trout fishing. Sadly, he was the fatality out on I-81 at Manada Exit on the 28th. I need some of that medicine that can only come from soldering on and seeing him where we made our memories. September has become a very dark month - I'm more than ready for Oct. I'm sorry to gear that bud. Try the backside of the lake, down at the bottom of the dam. If you can not handle the semi cool waters of late Sept/early Oct, you will need waders. Hopefully you will find some comfort down there. I love days like. This is the best time to fish, IMO, I've always had the best catches around now. I know that lake, fished there with my dad four times. We used to look for new places a lot and the PA Angler did a story on it and decided to go. I was 11 and caught my second musky there, a 33 inch one on a yellow one inch Mr. Twister, which was a new thing back then. I was fishing for panfish, that was a surprise. Same way on catch/release btw. Glad you had a good day and enjoy the fish. Yeah the lake offers anything a wide variety of fish. Muskie, pike, bass, panfish, monster carp, catties ect. Fishing can be rough if not from a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Thanks for that info. J-man. Rivers and streams look like crap and I was wondering about a trip to FIG and check out ML. My little bro and me still found time to do one thing together and that was trout fishing. Sadly, he was the fatality out on I-81 at Manada Exit on the 28th. I need some of that medicine that can only come from soldering on and seeing him where we made our memories. September has become a very dark month - I'm more than ready for Oct. Oh man, i saw that on the news. I'm sorry for your loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 I'm so sorry to hear this. I agree on the medicine. Part of my heritage is Eastern Band Cherokee (grandmother was full) and learned medicine comes in many forms. JO - some of our best friends are full blood and live in Cherokee, N.C. on the res. Wife and I honeymooned down there. Yes - they always speak of "many" medicines and few if any are about pills and such I'm sorry to gear that bud. Try the backside of the lake, down at the bottom of the dam. If you can not handle the semi cool waters of late Sept/early Oct, you will need waders. Hopefully you will find some comfort down there. Yeah the lake offers anything a wide variety of fish. Muskie, pike, bass, panfish, monster carp, catties ect. Fishing can be rough if not from a boat. Thanks again Jordan. I have a boat with electric troller that I plan to go out on - I also love ice fishing out there. We're taking Trace Adkin's lyrics to "Just Fishin" and put it over a background of him and his 9 y.o. daughter along Clark's. If you don't know the song - Google it and check it out, you'll know why we decided to do that. I hope that your buddy's family is doing the best they can too - and, of course, you my good "weather buddy: Oh man, i saw that on the news. I'm sorry for your loss. Thanks Sauss - when I came home from Mom's last night, I happened upon the fatal along front st by Ft Hunter. Not what I wanted to see. At least its stopped raining and the services should be high and dry for tomorrow. All Peace to you all. Rockvillebill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 30, 2011 Author Share Posted September 30, 2011 JO - some of our best friends are full blood and live in Cherokee, N.C. on the res. Wife and I honeymooned down there. Yes - they always speak of "many" medicines and few if any are about pills and such Thanks again Jordan. I have a boat with electric troller that I plan to go out on - I also love ice fishing out there. We're taking Trace Adkin's lyrics to "Just Fishin" and put it over a background of him and his 9 y.o. daughter along Clark's. If you don't know the song - Google it and check it out, you'll know why we decided to do that. I hope that your buddy's family is doing the best they can too - and, of course, you my good "weather buddy: Thanks Sauss - when I came home from Mom's last night, I happened upon the fatal along front st by Ft Hunter. Not what I wanted to see. At least its stopped raining and the services should be high and dry for tomorrow. All Peace to you all. Rockvillebill That's cool, R-ville. Enjoy your weather posts, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 It looks inevitable that we will have a drastic warm up at some point in the first half of Oct. This cutoff will eventually work its way too far to the East allowing the the ridge axis to shift East. Guess we are pretty lucky that this cutoff has been trapped under the mid level ridge in Canada as long as it has or Summer might have extended well into this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 A very nice short term writeup from CTP this afternoon, they have introduced the S word to the highest ground. .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...5H CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE DEEPENED TO AROUND 540DAM BY THEBEGINNING OF THE DAY ON SAT. THAT IS 4-5 STD DEVIATIONS BELOWNORMAL. THE MATH BEHIND THIS MAKES THIS PRETTY MUCH A RECORD-MAKING DEPTH FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILLOBVIOUSLY BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY STACKED. THE COLD CORE OF THESYSTEM DROPS ACROSS OH SAT AND SEEMS TO SETTLE INTO THE MTS OF WVAND THE LAURELS SUN AM. AS THE LOW SPINS AND WOBBLES EAST THENNORTH THEN WEST AND SOUTH AROUND THE EDGES OF THE STATE THROUGHTHE WEEKEND...THE COLD UPPER LEVELS WILL CREATE INSTABILITY. MSTRIS HIGH /BUT NOT VERY ABNORMAL/ WITH DEEP OCEAN FETCH. NO NEED TOGET TOO DISCRETE WITH POPS AT THIS POINT. JUST WENT FOR LIKLIES TOCATG POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT-SUN. THE TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGHAROUND 2500FT TO GIVE AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXINGIN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ON THOSE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WILL STARTTO MENTION IT FOR NOW IN THE LAURELS. WILL ALSO MENTION IN THENCENT MTS...WHERE THE 00Z NAM COOLED THINGS OFF ENOUGH FOR SOMEFLAKES THERE AS WELL. SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THECOLDEST PERIOD...SO WILL CONFINE THE MENTIONS OF S TO THAT TIMEFRAME. CONSENSUS FROM MOST MDLS AND GEFS TAKE THE UPPER LOW FARENOUGH OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY TO DRY THINGS UP - EXCEPT PERHAPSFOR SOME SCT/ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SHRA ON THE NRLY WINDS. BUT SHORTLAKE FETCH WILL KEEP THEM BRIEF AND MAY NOT PUSH IN LAND VERY FARAT ALL. THE TEMPS MAY GET INTO THE L-M30S OVER THE HILL TOPS THISWEEKEND...BUT ALL THE CLOUDS AND THE CONSTANT W-N WIND WILL MAKEIT UNLIKELY THAT ANY FROST WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FORM. WILL KEEPMINS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FORECASTS FOR NOW FOLLOWING THE SAMEREASONING. BUT IT WON/T BE COMFORTABLE AT ALL WITH MAXES HOLDINGIN THE 40S AND 50S SAT/SUN - 15 TO 20F BELOW NORMALS FOR THE FIRSTFEW DAYS OF OCTOBER. MONDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10F MILDER...BUT STILL5-10F BELOW NORMALS. THE EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOW AT EVEN THECOLDER MOUNTAIN-TOP CO-OP SITES IS SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OFOCT 7TH-9TH. AGAIN...SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF THIS EVENT MAKING 0.1INCHES STICK. BUT IT IS A DEEP LOW...AND THE WX AROUND THESEPARTS HAS BEEN RATHER WILD THIS YEAR- WITH A RECORD WETSPRING FOR MANY LOCATIONS...RECORD WET AND DESTRUCTIVE FLOODS OFSEPTEMBER AND AROUND 30 TORNADOES THIS YEAR SO FAR.WITHOUT VERY HIGH PWATS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET VERY HEAVYRAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE INSTABILITY AND CIRCULATION SHOULD KEEPTHE RAIN/SHOWERS MOVING. HOWEVER...A SIG DEFORMATION BAND OR TWOWITH A WINTER-LIKE LOOK MAY BE CURLED AROUND THE LOW ACCORDING TOTHE MDLS. THESE BANDS COULD PRODUCE SOME CONSTANT MODERATE RAINOVER THE ALREADY WATER-LOGGED AREAS OF ERN/NERN PA. AT THIS POINTQPF OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES STRETCHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS LOWENOUGH TO NOT WORRY ABOUT ADDITIONAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...IT COULDSLOW THE FALL OF MANY OF THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS ALONG THE SUSQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 A very nice short term writeup from CTP this afternoon, they have introduced the S word to the highest ground. Just noticed the disco too. Record deep low and record early snow? Lets go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 A very nice short term writeup from CTP this afternoon, they have introduced the S word to the highest ground. I will try and take some pictures tomorrow night. I'm going to take the spotlight and atv up to the hill 2500ft up behind my families house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Just jump in here there was some major stream flooding issues in the Wilkes-barre/Scranton area earlier this week. Some of th flood damaged homes in west pittston got flooded again this week. The rain came down as hard as I have ever seen it. I had to drive @ 10 miles per hour on rt 29.(speed limit is 55. I had 4.5 inches on Tueday and a wet basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I will try and take some pictures tomorrow night. I'm going to take the spotlight and atv up to the hill 2500ft up behind my families house. I might drive up to Mt. Davis tomorrow, if I do I'll share any "findings" with y'all central folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I might drive up to Mt. Davis tomorrow, if I do I'll share any "findings" with y'all central folks. please do! I think it will be well worth it, especially this time of year. If I can manage to find one flurry out of this whole ordeal I will be excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 It looks inevitable that we will have a drastic warm up at some point in the first half of Oct. This cutoff will eventually work its way too far to the East allowing the the ridge axis to shift East. Guess we are pretty lucky that this cutoff has been trapped under the mid level ridge in Canada as long as it has or Summer might have extended well into this month. As with all of these blocky patterns (whether Omega or regular high amplitude upper air patterns) they try to hold onto the present conditions and are stubborn to release. Yes- the ULL will eventually shift east and permit what is record breaking warmth over the high plains to migrate east. Buts it will take its good sweet time - and then be just as slow to go back to cooler weather. I haven't looked at models at all the past few days but I had noticed previously that there is an important event ~12th to turn things back to very cool weather via a huge EC trough - and not one but two TC's trying to get their act together in the Carib and the S. Atl basin. The Euro and GFS Op models handle the event differently IIRC - as the Euro seems to signal continued high amplitude pattern and a midwest ridge and the GFS suggesting a huge ridge axis west of the Rockies and large EC trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 1, 2011 Author Share Posted October 1, 2011 Tonight: Rain before midnight, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between midnight and 2am, then periods of snow after 2am. Areas of fog before 2am. Low around 34. Breezy, with a north wind between 18 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Sunday: Periods of snow before 8am, then rain showers. High near 45. North wind between 10 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. The above is for the ridges west of Johnstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Tonight: Rain before midnight, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between midnight and 2am, then periods of snow after 2am. Areas of fog before 2am. Low around 34. Breezy, with a north wind between 18 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Sunday: Periods of snow before 8am, then rain showers. High near 45. North wind between 10 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. The above is for the ridges west of Johnstown. Jamie, Off hand, what was the date of your October snowfall last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 It's possible the highest spots of PA see measurable. Seems like a good deformation area tonight across the mtns. Could look pretty on some of the tallest peaks by morning, if the VVs are strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 This is going to be a very interesting event for the aforementioned laurels AOA 2500 feet. Since it looks like now there is going to be more than enough ample QPF via some strong enhancement I wouldn't be surprised if summits like Laurel, Mount Davis, and Blue Knob get that coating to 2 and perhaps even possibly more if the band focuses over those areas at the right time, as the heavy precip would likely cool the column enough and keep it cool enough to snow. Blue Knobs the closest >3000' summit to me, i'll try to go up if i get the chance. At any rate, some of the "lower" elevations of the Alleghenies could start seeing mixing as well later tonight. For the central counties immediately off the Laurels, if we can get any decent deform bands that settle over the area tonight, I would give at least an outside possibilty that some of the highest ground of say Tussey Mountain, Seven Mountains, etc (around 2k feet) may get a few flakes to mix in. Any measureable snow anywhere out of this event is going to be a record for CTP's coverage. If this were a couple weeks later, it may done one heck of an October 15/16, 2009 impression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Looking at the SPC Meso, the 850 low has shrank and shifted to the East. Yet a whole lot of warm air resides on the NW of this thing. Looking at different cams up and down the Apps, seems like the cold air has really undercut the the system as I've seen dustings on the cams in the 3500+ft range down into NC/TN but can't seem to find much of anything from PA North. Didn't we have a similar setup last year around this time? Think I remember some highest of the high peaks in the Smokies receiving a few inches around this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Blows that the cam on Mount Laurel only operates Nov. to Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 one of my favorite winters..04 i believe. hope to see a repeat this year.. just found these pics on disk and figured i would share. the last pic is of my old propane tank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Does anybody have webcam links to the higher elevations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Does anybody have webcam links to the higher elevations? The only West PA one I have is the Laurel Ridge one I mentioned earlier. The ski club that runs it does not run it between Apr. and Oct. I too am interested in any PA links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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