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Central PA Fall Thread II


JamieOber

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Any reports of flooding guys??? E. Lycoming county has been absolutely blitzed...would not be surprised to see Muncy Creek get near bankfull.

Looks like Northumberland County has really gotten pounded today as well.

From the most recent CTP AFD:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...PORTIONS OF NORTHUMBERLAND AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES ARE EXPERIENCINGSEVERE FLOODING THIS EVENING FROM REPEATED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURSAND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF 3 DAYS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

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Looks like Northumberland County has really gotten pounded today as well.

From the most recent CTP AFD:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...PORTIONS OF NORTHUMBERLAND AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES ARE EXPERIENCINGSEVERE FLOODING THIS EVENING FROM REPEATED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURSAND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF 3 DAYS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

Any reports about Knoebel's?

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Interesting stuff from NWS CTP:

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH LAKE/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTSHOULD FOCUS PCPN OVR THE UPPER OH VLY INTO THE ALLEGHENIES ONFRIDAY. A POTENTIAL INTERESTING EVENT MAY UNFOLD FRI NGT INTO SATAS MDLS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVR PA ASUPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MDT TO LCLY HVY WRAP-AROUND PCPN. WHILE IT IS CERTAINLY A LOW PROBABILITY ESPECIALLYDURING THE DAY...THERMAL PROFILES MAY AT LEAST BE MARGINALLYSUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHERELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE FCSTWHICH WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PD.

Most importantly, looks like a decent break from rain after this.

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Interesting stuff from NWS CTP:

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH LAKE/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTSHOULD FOCUS PCPN OVR THE UPPER OH VLY INTO THE ALLEGHENIES ONFRIDAY. A POTENTIAL INTERESTING EVENT MAY UNFOLD FRI NGT INTO SATAS MDLS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVR PA ASUPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MDT TO LCLY HVY WRAP-AROUND PCPN. WHILE IT IS CERTAINLY A LOW PROBABILITY ESPECIALLYDURING THE DAY...THERMAL PROFILES MAY AT LEAST BE MARGINALLYSUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHERELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE FCSTWHICH WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PD.

Most importantly, looks like a decent break from rain after this.

Well it should be interesting to see if we can sneak out our first flakes of the winter season! I'm sure I will pull an all nighter friday night just to make sure, I mean I'm usually up late anyways friday night :arrowhead: . Lol its not to often I can talk about snow on September 30th :thumbsup:

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Well it should be interesting to see if we can sneak out our first flakes of the winter season! I'm sure I will pull an all nighter friday night just to make sure, I mean I'm usually up late anyways friday night :arrowhead: . Lol its not to often I can talk about snow on September 30th :thumbsup:

Some of those hills around your town are over 2000 ft asl.

Mr. Potter, we're counting on you to make that climb. :weight_lift:

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KMDT is currently .17" below June 1972 record for wettest month (18.38" vs 18.55")... cant we just get a little more rain to make it an official record??!! Yesterday too much just missed KMDT to the north and west.

I'd say KMDT just made it with that downpour. 3 days in a row heavy fricking rain

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Some of those hills around your town are over 2000 ft asl.

Mr. Potter, we're counting on you to make that climb. :weight_lift:

yep, there is a hill right behind my grandmothers house at around 2200ft, I plan on heading up there sometime saturday night on the fourwheeler. I was originally thinking friday night would be the best night for a chance of snow but looks to be saturday night. Where I live in part of the town is at an elevation of 1506ft which is close to the river valley, so I'm going to see if that extra 700ft will make the difference :snowman: . Its going to be tough to get some snow at this time of the year, but if I can see at least one flake, it will be all worth it! If I really feel up to it, I might take a quick trip over to Lyon Hill about 15 minutes from here, peaks close to 2600ft.

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Count me as someone that has pretty decent confidence in some of the really high ground seeing flakes on Saturday/Sat night. Surprised none of you guys mentioned the 12z Euro, which does a couple things. For starters, it lingers back alot of precip compared to the other models. Hour 60 in particular is really interesting, with a closed region of <540 dm covering most of the state and a sizeable area of .25-.50" 6 hour precip. Further scrutiny shows 850 temps around -2ºC in the western half of the state and at 925 while there's no area of 0ºC.. central and western PA reside in a closed region of at or slightly below 2ºC. In short, it screams high elevation snowfall event. Unfortunately, I don't think there will be that much QPF around when things get to the point where you might start seeing flakes fly in the highest ground. Still though, I bet at least one the usual suspects sees it. And if anyone at all actually sees a flake at the beginning of October, that would be very impressive.

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Count me as someone that has pretty decent confidence in some of the really high ground seeing flakes on Saturday/Sat night. Surprised none of you guys mentioned the 12z Euro, which does a couple things. For starters, it lingers back alot of precip compared to the other models. Hour 60 in particular is really interesting, with a closed region of <540 dm right covering most of the state and a sizeable area of .25-.50" 6 hour precip. Further scrutiny shows 850 temps around -2ºC in the western half of the state and at 925 while there's no area of 0ºC.. central and western PA reside in a closed region of at or slightly below 2ºC. In short, it screams high elevation snowfall event. Unfortunately, I don't think there will be that much QPF around when things get to the point where you might start seeing flakes fly in the highest ground. Still though, I bet at least one the usual suspects sees it. And if anyone at all actually sees a flake at the beginning of October, that would be very impressive.

no way, that is awesome! It is tough for me, because I don't know a free site that has the Euro, so I never get a chance to see what it is showing. I'm stuck watching the GFS, NAM, GGEM, and UKie.

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