EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 RGEM similar to NAM. RGEM gives my 1" QPF and NAM .5" So not exactly similar. You need to specify for what area you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm talking low placement...hadn't seen the precip on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Based on my map location numbers. JST 1-3" AOO 2-4" UNV 1-3" HGR 4-6" MDT 4-8" IPT 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 BTW DT MAP!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Based on my map location numbers. JST 1-3" AOO 2-4" UNV 1-3" HGR 4-6" MDT 4-8" IPT 1-3" Looks good man!! I'd go lower on AOO, JST, UNV and IPT...where it should be light snow. With sun angle and lack of frozen ground it could snow lightly all day and not lay. As for MDT...high..but you might just nail it!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well kids, euro isn't gonna be fading. Through 18z Sat text has MDT to at least 1.2 total and places like AOO and IPT over a half inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro holds if not a bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well kids, euro isn't gonna be fading. Through 18z Sat text has MDT to at least 1.2 total and places like AOO and IPT over a half inch So like 1" back toward ship eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So like 1" back toward ship eh? I'll be compiling the list here, I would imagine thats a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll be compiling the list here, I would imagine thats a safe bet. I'll take my 6" of snow and let the war begin. In that snow storm in Oct. 2009 I was in State college. All I hard was trees popping all night and watched transformers explode. It was like a war zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 2m temps staying consistent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 2m temps staying consistent? Ya we get crushed. Hold on to your seat belts ladies and gentleman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 CTP new point and click for my location. Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow. Low around 32. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Saturday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night: Snow likely before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Northwest wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We will be once the EURO comes out...- just not our winter(s) anymore. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUmetstudent Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 http://forecast.weat...ter+Storm+Watch WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 OMFG 6-10!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA212 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...FIRST WINTER STORM OF THIS SEASON TAKING SHAPE....A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THESOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY AND WILL HEAD UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHTAND SATURDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE HEAVY WET SNOWOVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WILLCOME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY...BUT COULD STARTOVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. STORM TOTALACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY WEIGH DOWN TREES WHICH STILL HAVELEAVES ON THEM...LEADING TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066-281415-/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0008.111029T1000Z-111030T0200Z/FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER212 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND POCONOS.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND WEIGH DOWN TREES. POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...MID 30S COOLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAYTUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHERINFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSOBE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.&&$$DANGELO/CERU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't bother getting excited about these types of storms, or at least for my area. This area along with Williamsport always gets hosed on Nor'Easters unless they are inland runners (which don't happen very often) because they like to follow the water temperature gradient off the coast. I don't think there has ever been a normal Nor'Easter that has given Potter/Tioga a 12" + or the sweet spot lol unless you count the epic 93' storm or the 67' storm I think it was that year. It is just not climatologically favorable to get Nor' Easters this far west, but we make up our snowfall totals on tons of mini like storms unless a rare storm like 93' does come along. Hopefully you guys get pounded! I'm debating whether I should go winter storm chasing this weekend, If the storm doesn't shift much I just might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It just hit the fan. PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066-281415-/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0008.111029T1000Z-111030T0200Z/FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER212 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND POCONOS.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND WEIGH DOWN TREES. POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...MID 30S COOLING INTO THE LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 you have those Euro numbers Mag??? Thanks in advance bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 PIT - 0.2" LBE - 0.5" JST - 0.6" AOO - 0.8" UNV - 0.75" DUJ - 0.4" HGR - 1.4" MDT - 1.4" LNS - 1.6" IPT - 0.6" AVP - 0.85" *WATCHES UP* for PA southern tier and all of Sus Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, definetely surprised at the watches!! How did the Euro fair? CTP must feel pretty confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If we get 8 inches we beat my biggest storm total from last year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, definetely surprised at the watches!! How did the Euro fair? CTP must feel pretty confident I got the Euro totals at the bottom of the last page. I was expecting the watches, but 6-10?? Is this even real life right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I got the Euro totals at the bottom of the last page. I was expecting the watches, but 6-10?? Is this even real life right now? Wake up and smell the hot chocolate. Haha. Oh reminds me go Oct. 2009 so much but, on a much larger scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 From Earthlight. Pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I got the Euro totals at the bottom of the last page. I was expecting the watches, but 6-10?? Is this even real life right now? There's just no friggen way. Low elevation snow in Oct? 6-10 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wake up and smell the hot chocolate. Haha. Oh reminds me go Oct. 2009 so much but, on a much larger scale. Clearly CTP must be putting some stock into the GFS/GEFS mean. And thats fine, because I like how the GEFS mean tracks the low. More of a climo type solution for this time of year. The thermal boundary is going to be residing close to the shore and its going to be a doozy of one to boot considering how warm the ocean still is. I would take a blend of the Euro and GFS/GEFS, as Euro doesn't quite go off the deep end with the expanse of precip. BGM for instance has about 0.3 progged with the Euro vs a GEFS mean of over 1.5". At any rate, someone somewhere is gettin destroyed by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There's just no friggen way. Low elevation snow in Oct? 6-10 inches? lol you should no better to doubt mother nature! How many records has your area broke this year?? Mother nature sayin haterz gunna hate and shes about to prove the haterz wrong again lol . It is just insane how the weather has been lately, it just make you wonder whats in store for the dead of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Clearly CTP must be putting some stock into the GFS/GEFS mean. And thats fine, because I like how the GEFS mean tracks the low. More of a climo type solution for this time of year. The thermal boundary is going to be residing close to the shore and its going to be a doozy of one to boot considering how warm the ocean still is. I would take a blend of the Euro and GFS/GEFS, as Euro doesn't quite go off the deep end with the expanse of precip. BGM for instance has about 0.3 progged with the Euro vs a GEFS mean of over 1.5". At any rate, someone somewhere is gettin destroyed by this. Me. lol. I like the spot I am in for this one. A bunch of the GFS ENS have me getting 15"+ and one has 19". So cut that down to like 7-11" and sounds good to me. haha. I will be sure to post plenty of war zone pictures. When I get power back. BTW temp here is now 36 degrees. Oh and I doubt I sleep tonight. This is too exciting. First all nighter..in Oct. Long winter ahead. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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