NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Light snow still falling, 31.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM's running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Light snow still falling, 31.9° We had a bit of light snow at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just got out of my 531 exam and am quite happy at what I see! Major westward shift on the newest GEFS! Very nice snowfall well back west in PA if this verifies! I would be surprised to see any further significant westward jumps as this is already close to hugging the coast as it is. Hope you did well on the 531 exam, jmister and thanks for posting the maps. That exam sucked! But at least the 18z is a pleasure to ogle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We had a bit of light snow at the very end. Nada here. Wonder if Mt. Nittany was able to pull off a coating? I know Oct 1 some elev. around 2k ft got accumulating snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nada here. Wonder if Mt. Nittany was able to pull off a coating? I know Oct 1 some elev. around 2k ft got accumulating snow here. yeah, took a bunch of photos of that on Port Matilda mountain, up the road about 4-5 miles from our house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Latest SREF snow probs are juicy! Here's the link, rather than posting a bunch of images. The 21Z run is the most recent run, correct? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallsref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Latest SREF snow probs are juicy! Here's the link, rather than posting a bunch of images. The 21Z run is the most recent run, correct? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallsref.html Correct. And you're right--beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Correct. And you're right--beautiful I gotta get this out of the way... You move here - week you get here, earthquake. Then we get all these severe storms and we don't get them all that often. Plus one of the wettest Aug-Sept periods ever. Accumulating snow at higher elevations Oct. 2 I mean, based on all this, a foot of snow and drifting Saturday night wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thank the gods roads are too warm. I have to drive to Pittsburgh tomorrow, drive back to Lancaster Sunday and then down to Westminster, Maryland on Monday. I just don't need road closures this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 FWIW, the 00z NAM is similar to the 18z NAM... so not great, but not terrible for Central PA. That being said, the NAM sucks, so I'm more looking forward to what the GFS has to say. I gotta get this out of the way... You move here - week you get here, earthquake. Then we get all these severe storms and we don't get them all that often. Plus one of the wettest Aug-Sept periods ever. Accumulating snow at higher elevations Oct. 2 I mean, based on all this, a foot of snow and drifting Saturday night wouldn't surprise me. You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 FWIW, the 00z NAM is similar to the 18z NAM... so not great, but not terrible for Central PA. That being said, the NAM sucks, so I'm more looking forward to what the GFS has to say. You're welcome. Hate to be a weenie but honestly, how are you feeling about Saturday? The SREF 50% chance of 4+" seems pretty crazy, but it looks increasingly likely that we'll see some kind of sticking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Why is the NAM so bad with these kind of events. You can clearly see the low is supposed to be closer to the coast but the nam is clueless like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hate to be a weenie but honestly, how are you feeling about Saturday? The SREF 50% chance of 4+" seems pretty crazy, but it looks increasingly likely that we'll see some kind of sticking snow. I'm probably not the person to ask. But I think 2-4" seems reasonable for a first guess for KUNV. Obviously the range of possibilities is still quite large, since the precip gradient on the northwest side of the low will be sharp. The NAM is now pretty much on the low side, with probably only 0.5"-1" of snow... whereas some of the GFS and SREF ensembles have 8-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Why is the NAM so bad with these kind of events. You can clearly see the low is supposed to be closer to the coast but the nam is clueless like usual. I was thinking the same thing...looks screwy?? Who knows though..still way WEST of where it was!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thank the gods roads are too warm. I have to drive to Pittsburgh tomorrow, drive back to Lancaster Sunday and then down to Westminster, Maryland on Monday. I just don't need road closures this early in the season. They'll be clear tomorrow and Sunday, but Saturday they will have snow on them if there are good rates. October 2005, 2009 and even on Oct. 2 this year, the roads had snow on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I was thinking the same thing...looks screwy?? Who knows though..still way WEST of where it was!!! It will dial in within 6hrs. :/ stupid nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm probably not the person to ask. But I think 2-4" seems reasonable for a first guess for KUNV. Obviously the range of possibilities is still quite large, since the precip gradient on the northwest side of the low will be sharp. The NAM is now pretty much on the low side, with probably only 0.5"-1" of snow... whereas some of the GFS and SREF ensembles have 8-10". Thanks for answering. I'm sure a place like State College is worlds different from where you came from (somewhere in Oregon, right?). I'm from around Atlanta so I'm pretty clueless as to how things tend to go around here (not having a met degree doesn't help, either!). But...good to hear that even on the low end we're looking at accum. snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Why is the NAM so bad with these kind of events. You can clearly see the low is supposed to be closer to the coast but the nam is clueless like usual. who knows... and it was recently upgraded too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Will NYC or Philly get a big snow out of this??? LOL this is sick, Its October and I'm worried about I 95 showing us up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 CTP put this on about 830pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 UNV down to 34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Some pretty remarkable numbers off of the 18z GFS ensembles. 1.35" mean for Altoona, 0.86" for UNV, 1.7" for Harrisburg. Pretty amazing considering what the maps looked like 24-36 hours ago. http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/mrefplumes/PlumeDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Will NYC or Philly get a big snow out of this??? LOL this is sick, Its October and I'm worried about I 95 showing us up again. According to the NAM, yep. Man, seriously, can't we just get one big storm instead of it always being I-95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 According to the NAM, yep. Man, seriously, can't we just get one big storm instead of it always being I-95? You should trying being in my shoes.. lol Im alot closer to the cutoff then you are time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You should trying being in my shoes.. lol Im alot closer to the cutoff then you are time and time again. Hey, we're both getting the shaft at the end of the day. Last winter was especially ugly -- two storms combined saw NYC get like 40" of snow while I saw 5" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hey, we're both getting the shaft at the end of the day. Last winter was especially ugly -- two storms combined saw NYC get like 40" of snow while I saw 5" total. Thankfully I finished with 67" last yr which is about 10-15% above normal for my area but wow the torcher it has been the last 2 winters.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 0z GFS running... precip shield further north and west through 36 hours!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z GFS is pretty sweet. A teeny bit more of a northwest trend would be ideal, but I'd be elated with what it's showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.