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Central PA Fall Thread II


JamieOber

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Looks like NWS State College is not budging with WSW yet and they just say rain/snow mix for Saturday. Not jumping on the bandwagon. If Reading has WSW makes no sense we don't but they might want to wait for the next run of models.

CTP is always last to pull the trigger. They said if 0Z holds they will issue some products.

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Just hope this doesn't become a common storm track this winter. Sure we average twice as much snow as places like Philly but missing a big coastal hurts. Not that it's likely the I-95 corridor gets plastered-it is late October-but still, not cool!

NAM now appears to be the furthest west and most developed with the low as it passes the Delmarva. Even though it fades to the 40/70 benchmark, the low starts of just barely offshore of Norfolk and moves just offshore of the Delmarva before fading ene. A track like that would generally spread heavier precip up into places like State College before the fade would yank the precip shield away. Contrast that with the GFS and Euro that actually place the low somewhat more offshore but throw back more expansive precip. Models are mostly close to each other today trackwise. And it seems like the bigger issue starting to crop up here is precip coverage NW of the storm. A little leery of how tightly wound the NAM is.. but it is the 18z run and let us remember where the NAM started todays model cycle.

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Just hope this doesn't become a common storm track this winter. Sure we average twice as much snow as places like Philly but missing a big coastal hurts. Not that it's likely the I-95 corridor gets plastered-it is late October-but still, not cool!

This is the first storm track like this, most of them so far this fall have been perfect for us.

See the hysterics earlier this month in some of the I-95 forums over the storm track, lol.

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NAM now appears to be the furthest west and most developed with the low as it passes the Delmarva. Even though it fades to the 40/70 benchmark, the low starts of just barely offshore of Norfolk and moves just offshore of the Delmarva before fading ene. A track like that would generally spread heavier precip up into places like State College before the fade would yank the precip shield away. Contrast that with the GFS and Euro that actually place the low somewhat more offshore but throw back more expansive precip. Models are mostly close to each other today trackwise. And it seems like the bigger issue starting to crop up here is precip coverage NW of the storm. A little leery of how tightly wound the NAM is.. but it is the 18z run and let us remember where the NAM started todays model cycle.

Surprise. :arrowhead: I'm so sick of living on the edge like this.

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Just got out of my 531 exam and am quite happy at what I see! Major westward shift on the newest GEFS! Very nice snowfall well back west in PA if this verifies! I would be surprised to see any further significant westward jumps as this is already close to hugging the coast as it is.

12z GEFS cumulative precip:

12zgfsensemblep72108.gif

And now this...

18zgfsensemblep72108.gif

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Just got out of my 531 exam and am quite happy at what I see! Major westward shift on the newest GEFS! Very nice snowfall well back west in PA if this verifies! I would be surprised to see any further significant westward jumps as this is already close to hugging the coast as it is.

12z GEFS cumulative precip

And now this...

Very nice! I do have to wonder how well we'll be able to cool off with snow falling during the day. Although in late October the sun angle is really not terribly high (compared to say, late March).

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