pasnownut Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Appears to be all snow. That six hour frame is INSANE for MDT. If this happens, this might be the most wacky weather year ever. LNS in a bullesye already......the gods are smiling on us..... a friend just texted me a pic of it snowing from his cabin (which is 1/2 mile from my place) in Gaines Pa. Ground already getting white. Heres to a long....cold....and white winter. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Appears to be all snow. That six hour frame is INSANE for MDT. If this happens, this might be the most wacky weather year ever. Yea 850s are at least a couple degrees below zero and 2m about a degree or so above, should be all snow with rates like that. About your question on the NW trend... i'm honestly not very surprised that within about 48-60 hours of this event we are where we are. So yea things could come back even further.. we're getting pretty good precip thrown back into central with the low still being progged offshore some. Not out of the question for the models to make it more of a hugger again. Given that it's early and we're not necessarily talking about arctic airmasses being in place the baroclinic boundary is likely to be not that far offshore, so perhaps something to watch is for the low to run closer to shore. At any rate, I've been very curious to see how the models would handle this during the week. And like last winter we have a big storm advertised a week out, gets buried out to sea for a few days by virtually everything.. only to start charging back towards that solution. This has been mainly a Euro only storm and now its got everything starting to trend towards it. Would likely take a blend of the 12z GEFS mean and 12z Euro solution right now. Also, if we actually end up with this storm in the fashion the Euro has it right now.. don't you guys down east short change yourself on accumulations. Clearly, we are not going to see stuff anywhere near 10:1 given the unfrozen ground, marginal surface temps, and yadda yadda yadda. But half of that ratio might be attainable. Keep in mind, unlike what usually happens with these very early season storms.. the nor'easter doesn't have to deepen enough to manufacture or pull in cold enough air to change a rainstorm into a snowstorm. This will already have a chilly airmass in place thanks to wave number 1. Don't expect THAT much of an inhibitance of snow accums from the sun if it snows hard enough... we are after all, something like a month and 5 days past the autumn equinox placing our sun angle equivalent date to about February 16th. So if you find yourself in a several hour period of S+.. its probably gonna lay on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Mount Holly has pulled the trigger. Watches have been posted for 4-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Mount Holly has pulled the trigger. Watches have been posted for 4-6 inches. for where? Eastern part of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Would be real interesting to see some snow for the penn state game on saturday. Josh what are your thoughts? I really haven't kept in touch with what's going on back east being all the way out here. Hey Jesse. It looks like we do have a real threat for accumulating snow back here in State College. The GFS, UKMET and ECMWF have at least 0.25" of frozen precip during the day Saturday. GGEM not as much, and the NAM is still out to lunch of course. The only negative I see for accumulation is that most of the snow will take place midday, and while accumulations can still happen with high sun angles and warm initial ground temps (Jamie, that was for you), I'm not sure if we will see rates heavy enough to stop the melting at least initially. I'm pumped to see what happens though. I'm going to the game Saturday and it should be pretty awesome. White out in more ways than one! Ok, back to studying for my thermo test tonight! I always thought it was ironic that meteorology work interrupts me from actually tracking weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 for where? Eastern part of the state URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011...WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING....AN EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWACCUMULATIONS.NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-280900-/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T0400Z/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY...BERKS COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...IMPAIRED TRAVEL...AND ISOLATED DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.* VISIBILITIES...1/2 TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&& Have to admit, I'm pretty damn excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011...WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING....AN EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWACCUMULATIONS.NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-280900-/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T0400Z/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON315 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY...BERKS COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...IMPAIRED TRAVEL...AND ISOLATED DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.* VISIBILITIES...1/2 TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&& Have to admit, I'm pretty damn excited. You may get your wish bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hey Jesse. It looks like we do have a real threat for accumulating snow back here in State College. The GFS, UKMET and ECMWF have at least 0.25" of frozen precip during the day Saturday. GGEM not as much, and the NAM is still out to lunch of course. The only negative I see for accumulation is that most of the snow will take place midday, and while accumulations can still happen with high sun angles and warm initial ground temps (Jamie, that was for you), I'm not sure if we will see rates heavy enough to stop the melting at least initially. I'm pumped to see what happens though. I'm going to the game Saturday and it should be pretty awesome. White out in more ways than one! Ok, back to studying for my thermo test tonight! I always thought it was ironic that meteorology work interrupts me from actually tracking weather. I had an evening meteo 454 exam right in the middle of the Oct 09 snowstorm...talk about hard to deal with lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Down to 39 here in Hazleton. Still hoping I can see accumulating snow over the weekend in Wilkes-Barre but holding back excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I had an evening meteo 454 exam right in the middle of the Oct 09 snowstorm...talk about hard to deal with lol. I was in that class with you then haha...Ken Davis right? That was such a fun and surprising storm. I'm starting to believe this one could be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I had an evening meteo 454 exam right in the middle of the Oct 09 snowstorm...talk about hard to deal with lol. Ouch! Thankfully all this stuff is happening during the weekend (well, at least most people I know consider Thursday the start of the weekend ). Friends finally convinced me to go to a game rather than sell my FB tix, so fingers definitely crossed. New CTP disco has State College right on the line of accum snowfall...just a little bit more NW trend and "central" C PA will be sitting pretty it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Most likely going to be heading back to Wilkes-Barre from Carteret NJ on Saturday. I'll run right through the Poconos and probably some of the worst of the snow...in an empty tractor trailer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 CTP mum so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Big changes are in store for the 18z NAM so it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I was in that class with you then haha...Ken Davis right? That was such a fun and surprising storm. I'm starting to believe this one could be as well. That was the one haha. Yea, this has the potential to drop amounts like that storm, it seems mother nature has been on a hot streak with ridiculous weather the last couple years. The somewhat good news is if State College is targeted by amounts like that again, the tree damage probably wouldn't be quite as bad since we have a good bit of the foliage off the trees now. But it would still be an issue. The bad news is, we'd be getting this storm for the Illinois game. That would make parking in the grass fields a bit of a challenge. Would imagine if push came to shove they would close the grass areas before the storm hits if snow becomes imminent. But could you imagine the mess of all those cars getting caught parked in the grass with a few inches of wet snow on top of an already wet and muddy field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 CTP mum so far. They did have this in their long term: THE MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON A POTENTIAL HIGH-IMPACT HEAVY WET SNOWFALL OVER THE SERN PTNS OF THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGLY NWWD TOWARD THE FAIRLY COMPATIBLE AND CONSISTENT 00/12Z ECMWF RUNS...RAISING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONSIDERABLY FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH GOOD DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THEREFORE WEIGHTED FORECAST HEAVILY TWD A 50/50 BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. A RAW MEAN BLEND OF QPF AND MASS FIELDS/THERMAL PROFILES FROM THESE MDLS WOULD RESULT IN MOD TO HVY SNFL AMTS...EVEN WITH A SLR LESS THAN 10:1. DUE IN PART TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...CLIMATOLOGY AND ELEVATION FACTORS ALL CONTRIBUTING TO SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY /ALTHOUGH THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE TILTING STRONGLY TWD SNOW VS. RAIN/ HAVE BACKED OFF HIGHER END AMTNS AND COORDINATED WITH HPC WWD ON MORE CONSERVATIVE ACCUMS IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE SE OF A SOMERSET- STATE COLLEGE- WILLIAMSPORT LINE. ANY SNOW ACCUM COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS INCLUDING DOWN TREES AND UTILITY LINES GIVEN REMAINING FOLIAGE. Seems like a pretty decent call at this juncture, and would appear to match up with Hollys watch for 4-6 to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 You may get your wish bro Be too amazed by the snow to shoot any birds lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Big changes are in store for the 18z NAM so it seems... It was only a matter of time before it bailed out of its dingy and joined the big boy ship. Srefs look good btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Haha NAM... Hold the phone. 6Z 18Z Minor changes minor changes. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Good God, I've missed a lot since last night! Hopefully someone in the area indeed gets a really nice surprise, can't be too stingy with October snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 HUUUUUGE deformation on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looking good for 4-6" minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 NAM's really wound up tight with the deform shield. Man look at the temperature gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Obviously the QPF is overdone, but silver dollars likely falling all the way into I95 on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ouch...NAM misses us with the good QPF but it's sooo close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ouch...NAM misses us with the good QPF but it's sooo close! Hopefully one more shift to the northwest is in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Anyone see the snow maps for the GFS ENS? LOL! 3 have 12" + and the rest have 9"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Any pics of the snow currently falling upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hopefully one more shift to the northwest is in store. Just hope this doesn't become a common storm track this winter. Sure we average twice as much snow as places like Philly but missing a big coastal hurts. Not that it's likely the I-95 corridor gets plastered-it is late October-but still, not cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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