2001kx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just started snowing here! First snowfall of the season!! Its not very hard, but if it keeps up I could see it sticking soon. I will post pictures if it does Temp is 37.0°F whats your temp? still 45 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GFS has come west... my concern is timing... we will see temperature issues in lower elevations during the day Saturday... this would be better to happen overnight Friday-Saturday or Saturday-Sunday... edit: Reason for temperature concerns are solar radiation still playing a factor now compared to december/january... this will be on tough call to forecast if most of it ends up elevation based Yeah, there are so many more variables this early in the year. In the middle of the day, accumulation tends to be confined to the elevations, but if the precip rates are high enough, there can be accumulation anywhere, which can really screw up accumulation forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 whats your temp? still 45 here It's now 36.5°f, dropping at a decent clip now. I have noticed the snow is mixing with rain at times, but the flakes are becoming bigger, it won't be long until its all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Even if we get cold enough for snow here, it won't stick...best shot for good snow is in the new usual areas. This has been proven wrong over and over and over and over and over and over and over again to the point where these kind of posts should just be considered on the same level as posting snow is made out of marshmallow cream. C'mon, man. You know better than that. This is the kind of stuff an idiot who doesn't know anything about weather would post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah, there are so many more variables this early in the year. In the middle of the day, accumulation tends to be confined to the elevations, but if the precip rates are high enough, there can be accumulation anywhere, which can really screw up accumulation forecasts. Did in 2009. That was bizarre, it accumulated on downtown State College streets at 1 pm with only moderate rates. Never seen anything like that. I don't think anyone had the valleys getting 6 from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This has been proven wrong over and over and over and over and over and over and over again to the point where these kind of posts should just be considered on the same level as posting snow is made out of marshmallow cream. C'mon, man. You know better than that. This is the kind of stuff an idiot who doesn't know anything about weather would post. Well, I should clarify, I'll be in the Wyoming Valley Saturday, where the temps will be warmer. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's now 36.5°f, dropping at a decent clip now. I have noticed the snow is mixing with rain at times, but the flakes are becoming bigger, it won't be long until its all snow. Congrats! Home from work today after a late travel night from a conference, and temp's been falling steady here. Currently 44.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well, I should clarify, I'll be in the Wyoming Valley Saturday, where the temps will be warmer. My bad. No prob. Still, though, if you get rates that are intense enough, that gets thrown out the window, keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 No prob. Still, though, if you get rates that are intense enough, that gets thrown out the window, keep that in mind. That's the issue. Heavier precip rates are out to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 This has been proven wrong over and over and over and over and over and over and over again to the point where these kind of posts should just be considered on the same level as posting snow is made out of marshmallow cream. C'mon, man. You know better than that. This is the kind of stuff an idiot who doesn't know anything about weather would post. as soon as i seen his post i thought of you jamie i knew you would be here to set the record straight. also temp has dropped to 44 here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 That's the issue. Heavier precip rates are out to the east. Have to see what happens and if the shift is over. Another thing I have noticed, when snow is falling at even a moderate rate, temps often fall and go below MOS numbers. The 2009 event was an example, the temp fell toward 32 and snow began to accumulate in late morning even before the heaviest stuff hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 EVERY 12z GEFS individual member is in line to give at least the SE'rn 1/2 to 2/3 of the area 0.25" + precip. About as good of an improvement as you can see compared to yesterday's one member! http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 There is a lot of precipitation to go yet too! Hopefully I can see some good amounts reported tomorrow. I'm going to travel up to about 2200ft in a bit to see if it is sticking yet. I wasn't expecting a turnover to snow as fast as it did, hopefully that is a sign that this may overproduce for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Did in 2009. That was bizarre, it accumulated on downtown State College streets at 1 pm with only moderate rates. Never seen anything like that. I don't think anyone had the valleys getting 6 from that one. Hopefully those of us in the NYC area will learn that lesson this weekend. Dynamically driven storms can produce many surprises. I was stunned to see heavy sticking snow on 10/25/05 up at Penn State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 EVERY 12z GEFS individual member is in line to give at least the SE'rn 1/2 to 2/3 of the area 0.25" + precip. About as good of an improvement as you can see compared to yesterday's one member! Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Very nice! Michael, a bit of talk over on other forums the NW trend may not be done - you seeing indications of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 There is a lot of precipitation to go yet too! Hopefully I can see some good amounts reported tomorrow. I'm going to travel up to about 2200ft in a bit to see if it is sticking yet. I wasn't expecting a turnover to snow as fast as it did, hopefully that is a sign that this may overproduce for some areas. I have friends heading to Bradford County, on the NY line to Hunt. Their leaving this afternoon, i told them they should have some white on the ground, they laughed at me. So i bet them each a case of beer! the ground would at least be white edit- love your new Sig Jamie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 GFS MOS guidance is still a bit warm with highs in the high 30's/low 40's. But even they agree that changeover occurs all the way to I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 I have friends heading to Bradford County, on the NY line to Hunt. Their leaving this afternoon, i told them they should have some white on the ground, they laughed at me. So i bet them each a case of beer! the ground would at least be white edit- love your new Sig Jamie Thx. Was in a silly mood when I made it. That's funny on the beer bet. I've made some beer bets. BTW, Euro stayed the course, still good hit with qpf but minds better than my own can talk soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thx. Was in a silly mood when I made it. That's funny on the beer bet. I've made some beer bets. BTW, Euro stayed the course, still good hit with qpf but minds better than my own can talk soundings. I'm watching close, were to have a game Sunday in York County at 1130. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Michael, a bit of talk over on other forums the NW trend may not be done - you seeing indications of that? It's possible, but I can't really say one way or the other. Great news that the ensembles have all shifted along with the operational GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 What's the latest with the euro? 43 here and light rain. Chilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 What's the latest with the euro? 43 here and light rain. Chilly! The 12z Euro is ever-so-slightly north and west with the precip shield compared with the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Looks warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 hey guys any word on ggem or ukie..what is se lycoming cty lookin at total precip on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 On the 12z Euro JST- 0.5" AOO/UNV - 0.6" IPT - about 0.7" MDT - about 1.3" (including a single 6 hour frame of 0.65") LNS - 1.3" AVP - about 0.7" BGM - about 0.25" HGR - about 1.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 On the 12z Euro JST- 0.5" AOO/UNV - 0.6" IPT - about 0.7" MDT - about 1.3" (including a single 6 hour frame of 0.65") LNS - 1.3" AVP - about 0.7" BGM - about 0.25" Appears to be all snow. That six hour frame is INSANE for MDT. If this happens, this might be the most wacky weather year ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Appears to be all snow. That six hour frame is INSANE for MDT. If this happens, this might be the most wacky weather year ever. i just said this to my wife. How can your rule out snow in October when we have had a Flood, Hurricane, Tornado, Earthquake and not to mention a record year for rainfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Would be real interesting to see some snow for the penn state game on saturday. Josh what are your thoughts? I really haven't kept in touch with what's going on back east being all the way out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 hey guys any word on ggem or ukie..what is se lycoming cty lookin at total precip on euro Here is a link for some of the foreign models http://www.wxcaster....eign_models.htm *edit: just be careful when going through the different hours while it is updating because some might be from previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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