MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Any met want to throw a map together for snowfall for the first wave? I think some places can see 1-3" still. I'll see what we have after some of the 0z comes in here in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z NAM looked interesting here in NEPA for tomorrow night. 0.25-0.35 3hr QPF from 2100 - 0000 UTC with H85 <0°C. Perhaps we could grab a quick 1-3"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ever closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Alright, first map of the year. This deals with wave number one rolling through later today into tonight. Pretty self explanatory, I highlighted a region where I think the best chance for accumulating snow might occur, and I only think it's going to be mainly under 2 inches and probably an inch or less in most circumstances. I don't see much support through the SREFs for anything more than that like there was a couple days ago so I feel this is a pretty safe and conservative map. The outer dashed region can expect a possible changeover to a brief period of snow or just some flakes at the very end with little or no accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Alright, first map of the year. This deals with wave number one rolling through later today into tonight. Pretty self explanatory, I highlighted a region where I think the best chance for accumulating snow might occur, and I only think it's going to be mainly under 2 inches and probably an inch or less in most circumstances. I don't see much support through the SREFs for anything more than that like there was a couple days ago so I feel this is a pretty safe and conservative map. The outer dashed region can expect a possible changeover to a brief period of snow or just some flakes at the very end with little or no accumulations. Nice forecast. It's somewhat encouraging that both the NAM and GFS seem to have trended toward a bit more precip with 850s <0 for the first event, but certainly there isn't much justification for more than rain ending as a few snow showers in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 UKMET brings back a big hit for PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 UKMET brings back a big hit for PA. Euros comin on back too, about .3-.4 for AOO/UNV, nearly an inch for MDT and about 0.8 for your neck of the woods (HGR) as per text output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hmmmm - vedy interestink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 CTP getting back on board http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off LATEST MODEL TREND HAS PLACED A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT BACK ON THETABLE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE SE THIRD...TO HALF OF THE CWA. 00Z EC IS ONCE AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH /SUB 1000 MB BY MIDDAY SAT JUST EAST OF KSBY/ OF THE SFC LOW...AND ALMOST IN THE EXACT LOCATION TO WHERE IT HAD THE LOW WITH ITS EARLIER RUN 48 HOURS - BEFORE A TEMPORARY TREND TO THE EAST WITH ITS PAST FEW RUNS. GEFS IS ALSO QUITE OMINOUS WITH THE WET SNOW POTENTIAL NEAR AND JUST TO THE SE OF I-81...SHOWING A A MEAN LEQ OF 0.60 AT KMDT IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL MEMBERS INDICATING WELL OVER AN INCH OF QPF IN THE FROZEN FORM AT KMDT....NORTHEAST TO KAVP. NOT SURPRISING WITH IT`S STORM TRACK HUGGING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA IS THAT THE EC`S SNOW ALGORITHM PAINTS 10-12 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND MDT...THV AND LNS...NE TO THE SRN POCONOS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EVEN IF STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW DOES MOVE INTO THIS REGION... TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WOULD GREATLY REDUCE AMOUNTS BELOW WHAT THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND STILL "OUTLIER" EC SUGGESTS. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z NAM...GFS...CANADIAN GEM...AND SREF ALL SHOW A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND FUIRTHER EAST SFC LOW TRACK...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT QPF /0.10 - 0.25 OF AN INCH / AND SOME WET SNOW ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES. THE QPF GRADIENT IN EACH OF THESE MODELS IN FURTHER SE AND TIGHTEST NEAR...AND JUST NW OF INTERSTATE 81. BASED ON THIS LATEST PLETHORA OF STILL CONFLICTING GUIDANCE...I DID PAINT IN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE RIDGES JUST ON THE NW SIDE OF I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Anybody have text from the 0z Euro....for Ft Indiantown Gap? Thanks a bunch...again. *Edit...I'm mainly looking for 2m and 925 temps for hr 60-72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z EURO -- stop me if you heard that song before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 0z EURO -- stop me if you heard that song before. Almost half of the 06z GFS ensembles agree with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Anybody have text from the 0z Euro....for Ft Indiantown Gap? Thanks a bunch...again. *Edit...I'm mainly looking for 2m and 925 temps for hr 60-72. 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 C C (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 29-OCT 1.7 -4.0 1020 97 100 0.07 553 537 SAT 18Z 29-OCT 1.6 -3.5 1015 99 100 0.55 546 535 SUN 00Z 30-OCT 0.3 -4.7 1018 97 88 0.28 544 529 SUN 06Z 30-OCT -2.5 -3.6 1021 96 55 0.00 546 530 i dont have 925 but theres 850.... everything is nice and spaced as i enter it out but appears a jumbled mess after i add the reply... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 C C (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 29-OCT 1.7 -4.0 1020 97 100 0.07 553 537 SAT 18Z 29-OCT 1.6 -3.5 1015 99 100 0.55 546 535 SUN 00Z 30-OCT 0.3 -4.7 1018 97 88 0.28 544 529 SUN 06Z 30-OCT -2.5 -3.6 1021 96 55 0.00 546 530 i dont have 925 but theres 850.... everything is nice and spaced as i enter it out but appears a jumbled mess after i add the reply... Yeah when I quote you is spaced back out. Thank you! Who's your provider? Accuwx? If so, does the Euro load any faster? There was such a lag time...which is why I left the service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NMM WRF from NCEP has a nice band of snow which develops over Ohio and slides eastward tonight: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=HRW-NMM-EUS&area=EUS&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=EUS&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE It's actually showing a good 0.25"-0.50" below 0C at 850, most of which falls with 850mb temperatures of -3C or lower. This is similar to the feature that's been showing up on other models, but more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 and to think we have a softball game Sunday. The temps will be to cold for the bats. gotta be above 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yeah when I quote you is spaced back out. Thank you! Who's your provider? Accuwx? If so, does the Euro load any faster? There was such a lag time...which is why I left the service. yea I have access to accuwx pro though the text output is about all I use it for. Text updates somewhat fast but images for euro lag quite a bit compared to what I can find elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Fingers crossed for a last minute slight NW trend so I can see some flakes at the football game Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NMM WRF from NCEP has a nice band of snow which develops over Ohio and slides eastward tonight: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=HRW-NMM-EUS&area=EUS&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=EUS&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE It's actually showing a good 0.25"-0.50" below 0C at 850, most of which falls with 850mb temperatures of -3C or lower. This is similar to the feature that's been showing up on other models, but more potent. But, of course, then the 12z NAM says almost no moisture once the cold arrives again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Through 36hr, 12z NAM looks to remain stubborn on its easterly solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Through 36hr, 12z NAM looks to remain stubborn on its easterly solution. It is the Nam, it is always the last to cave in. I member doing the big snow storms of 09-10 the Nam didn't show the north trend till like 24hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It is the Nam, it is always the last to cave in. I member doing the big snow storms of 09-10 the Nam didn't show the north trend till like 24hrs out. Truth. The NAM is insistent against most other models that the northern feature will not dig as much. 12z NAM at 48hr: 06z GFS at 54hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 It is the Nam, it is always the last to cave in. I member doing the big snow storms of 09-10 the Nam didn't show the north trend till like 24hrs out. Yes sir. The NAM caused a lot of unnecessary stress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 HRRR trending in the right direction for tonight: 09z 10z 11z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The NMM WRF from NCEP has a nice band of snow which develops over Ohio and slides eastward tonight: http://mag.ncep.noaa...=MODEL+GUIDANCE It's actually showing a good 0.25"-0.50" below 0C at 850, most of which falls with 850mb temperatures of -3C or lower. This is similar to the feature that's been showing up on other models, but more potent. type Exception report message description The server encountered an internal error () that prevented it from fulfilling this request. exception java.lang.NullPointerException note The full stack trace of the root cause is available in the JBossWeb/2.0.0.GA logs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 type Exception report message description The server encountered an internal error () that prevented it from fulfilling this request. exception java.lang.NullPointerException note The full stack trace of the root cause is available in the JBossWeb/2.0.0.GA logs. Just go here: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller And then go to Model Guidance -> EUS -> HRW-NMM-EUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GFS has come west... my concern is timing... we will see temperature issues in lower elevations during the day Saturday... this would be better to happen overnight Friday-Saturday or Saturday-Sunday... edit: Reason for temperature concerns are solar radiation still playing a factor now compared to december/january... this will be on tough call to forecast if most of it ends up elevation based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 12z GFS has come west... my concern is timing... we will see temperature issues in lower elevations during the day Saturday... this would be better to happen overnight Friday-Saturday or Saturday-Sunday... like always, it comes down to the timing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Even if we get cold enough for snow here, it won't stick...best shot for good snow is in the new usual areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just started snowing here! First snowfall of the season!! Its not very hard, but if it keeps up I could see it sticking soon. I will post pictures if it does Temp is 37.0°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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