hckyplayer8 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I can't describe how awesome it would be to hunt turkeys in an all out snowstorm. Weather gods, make it happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 We're all delusional, aren't we? I'm sorry, is this a new development? I thought that was well established a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Haha good point! Let it snow, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 NAM coming in colder and drier with wave one...which I did not expect. 2m freezing is nearly into the I81 corridor. Not expecting much of anything from this but its an interesting development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Honestly, I actually expect some flakes here in State College on the backside of the first storm. No real accumulation (perhaps a slushy dusting in the grass), but at least a small taste of winter. But if the 00z NAM were to verify, we'd probably see 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thank god in a little under two weeks, we get the runs an hour earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE N MTNS WED AFTN WITH A LIGHT ACCUM QUITE POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH...LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN WILL MOVE OUT BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN LATE THU. Hmm. CTP doesn't seem too optimistic. I was never keen on the snow potential for this Thursday afternoon either, but the trends today have been in a great direction. I'm not convinced just yet, but it's not out the question that we could get the grass covered Thursday afternoon/night, even here in State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 00z GFS is a big step in the right direction for storm number 2 (and for storm number one, interestingly enough). However, we still need another couple major shifts like that to put us in the Euro's sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Got a flake or two falling all the way to I95 that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 00z GFS is a big step in the right direction for storm number 2 (and for storm number one, interestingly enough). However, we still need another couple major shifts like that to put us in the Euro's sweet spot. Euro's been inching flatter and East. Usually we see them meet in the middle...which would cancel the heavy qpf output for CPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Hmm. CTP doesn't seem too optimistic. I was never keen on the snow potential for this Thursday afternoon either, but the trends today have been in a great direction. I'm not convinced just yet, but it's not out the question that we could get the grass covered Thursday afternoon/night, even here in State College. Yea these are some great probs on the SREFs and would signifiy quite a nice snowfall (perhaps a 2-4 max in the north) considering the time of the year. Might have to concoct some kind of a snowmap tomorrow for this. As for the second storm, I said yesterday the jury is likely to remain out on this model-wise for a few more days. As such, I remain noncommittal on whether this happens or not. With that said, the setup presents a rare oppurtunity for this early with this possible coastal low following right in the heels of this first event putting enough cold air (albeit marginal) in place for things to get white if this storm goes down. The Euro apparently did have some support today in the form of the 12z JMA which came on board with an eastern seaboard slamming coastal low...for what thats worth. New 0z GFS coming in is actually a bit closer, but wide right still for us. I'd be a little more shy on this storm potential if I hadn't already seen it snow at the beginning of October . But this year has liked to do stupid crazy things, so I wouldn't write this off yet even if the Euro dropped it later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Reeling the Ukie back in. Its more amplified. A pretty decent degree more than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 This one seems over...in terms of the historical event. Pretty good model agreement tonight. ECM/UKMET/GFS pretty much all in agreement. Maybe we can squeeze a slight nw trend....but the chances of everything trending back to the point that the over amplified ECM OP is very slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I can't describe how awesome it would be to hunt turkeys in an all out snowstorm. Weather gods, make it happen! you have a sickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I am only going to believe the euro when it shows a lakes cutter. It is always right with those. Coastals not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 After putting off some homework and looking at the storm situation most of the day, it looks like the fate of our weekend potential lies in the interaction between the southern shortwave and the northern branch wave which is west of the long(er) wave trough currently in the west. In order for a storm to effect people in this region, the southern storm must remain separate from this large trough and remain its own entity. This will allow it to interact with the northern wave and phase. If the northern branch is strong enough and the southern branch stays its own entity, a solution similar to the EURO's past runs seems in the realm of possibility. I think the reason that the EURO was showing the only snowy solution is its known SW bias which left the southern feature further west than all the other models. I have seen that both the NAM and GFS have been separating the Southern feature more each run. Keep watching that today. 06z GFS today (disregard my time stamp, I realized I mixed them up): 12z GFS yesterday: Hopefully this is informative (and correct)! I'm not a forecaster. More on the climate research side of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Euro's been inching flatter and East. Usually we see them meet in the middle...which would cancel the heavy qpf output for CPA. Ding ding ding. You're right, you win! What's your prize? No snow. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 you have a sickness Any form of hunting is fun in snow. Fall turkey would be insane. Much easier to see. Much easier to find. Ding ding ding. You're right, you win! What's your prize? No snow. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Eww even the first wave has disappeared! ughhh was looking forward to my 1-3" now that doesn't even look to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Nobody is going to mention the 12z GEFS? At least 4 show big hits back here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Any form of hunting is fun in snow. Fall turkey would be insane. Much easier to see. Much easier to find. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Nobody is going to mention the 12z GEFS? At least 4 show big hits back here... I saw that... I guess it can't be completely, 100% ruled out yet. But I'd bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looking at the Wunderground plots, Euro was actually significantly further West. Kind of nice that the deamplification trend stopped so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 00z GFS actually gives us what looks to be accumulating snowfall (here in State College) with the first system tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looking at the Wunderground plots, Euro was actually significantly further West. Kind of nice that the deamplification trend stopped so soon. The SREFs are starting to pick up on the coastal storm some now that it's starting to get solidly in their range. There were a few members in the 15z with some feisty coastal lows and there were some minimal 1+ snow probs that popped up. Only one member hit us solidly, so thats obviously still a work in progress. Does seem that models overall are starting to consolidate on a coastal low forming relatively close to the coast. The Euro gave the southeastern quarter of PA some light-moderate precip, the JMA is close to what it had yesterday keeping central PA involved. Part of me still wonders if Rina or whatever ends up being left of it has an influence on the development/track of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 One of these systems are going to surprise I think. There is a lot of upper level Vort energy swirling around in 500MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The SREFs are starting to pick up on the coastal storm some now that it's starting to get solidly in their range. There were a few members in the 15z with some feisty coastal lows and there were some minimal 1+ snow probs that popped up. Only one member hit us solidly, so thats obviously still a work in progress. Does seem that models overall are starting to consolidate on a coastal low forming relatively close to the coast. The Euro gave the southeastern quarter of PA some light-moderate precip, the JMA is close to what it had yesterday keeping central PA involved. Part of me still wonders if Rina or whatever ends up being left of it has an influence on the development/track of this system. I see a lot of people pondering this. If tropical systems are at the mercy of the flow around them, I don't see how they can have an influence on the development of the a mid latitude system...unless the mid latitude system is developing off the circulation of the tropical cyclone? Or am I thinking wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I see a lot of people pondering this. If tropical systems are at the mercy of the flow around them, I don't see how they can have an influence on the development of the a mid latitude system...unless the mid latitude system is developing off the circulation of the tropical cyclone? Or am I thinking wrong? Tropical systems can sometimes merge with mid latitude cyclones and they can also influence them without necessarily merging. A tropical system that gets drawn up north is bringing alot of heat and moisture with it. And that can build up ridging and make for a more amplified pattern. This sort of setup occurred in late October 2005 with Hurricane Wilma and aided a major east coast storm and early snow event for central PA, especially in the higher elevations. Rina doesn't appear that it is going to be pulled up out of the southern Gulf but instead eventually sheared apart and mainly left behind lingering in that area..with some of the computer models even turning whats left of it back south. Some models like the GFS had been off and on playing with the idea of bringing Rina over Florida which could provide at least an additional moisture source for any coastal development. Right now though it appears RIna should stay mainly separated from whatever ends up happening with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Any met want to throw a map together for snowfall for the first wave? I think some places can see 1-3" still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Any met want to throw a map together for snowfall for the first wave? I think some places can see 1-3" still. Not being altogether too familiar with the area I'm not really ready to throw a map up yet, but the 00z NAM agrees with some of the more recent GFS/NAM runs in keeping plenty of moisture around after the 0C 850mb line moves through, so I would think 1-3" above 2,000' seems pretty reasonable. Maybe up to an inch here in State College, and possibly even a dusting as far south and as low as Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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